There is a hugely important election in the United States next year. But it’s not the one you’re thinking of. This one could limit the power of the Trump second term to the point of impeachment, or enable a President Warren to destroy Facebook and introduce a USA NHS while packing the Supreme Court with social liberals – and the world is ignoring it.
It’s the Senate, stupid. The Senate is the key to everything. And it’s currently on a knife-edge. The Republicans control it at the moment, but a majority for the Democrats, winnable next year, would transform US politics, no matter who is sitting in the Oval Office. And among those accusing the Democratic party of chaotic, un-strategic thinking are many of its Washington-savvy supporters who understand that while the White House is nice to have, the Senate is essential.
What an odd body the Senate is. Because only a third of members are up for election in any one poll, it is the result, at any point in history, of three elections held at different times and in diverse political circumstances. And because Senators sit for six years they are not bound by the rules that affect all other American politicians. As a result, this is an institution that – how shall we put this? – does not wear its dignity lightly. The place drips with ‘noblest Roman’ hauteur.
Visit a Senator if you ever can. In outer offices, young staffers keep the outside world at bay. Inner offices reveal West-wing style hard men and hard women doing deals with their counterparts in other offices or with White House staffers or foreign ambassadors. And then, if you can find it, there is a further room where The Senator sits. The wall will be decorated with photos taken with presidents, popes, Olympic athletes. I remember my friend Mark Kirk, the Illinois Senator and Navy reservist (we’d known each other since London School of Economics days) sitting under a picture of himself in full military dress uniform with President George W Bush pretending to flick fluff off the collar like some playful Jermyn Street tailor.
They have made it, these Senators. They wield power. These hundred men and women have the duty to conduct impeachment trials, to ratify foreign treaties, to confirm presidential appointments, to defeat legislation and to investigate any aspect of American life that they decide needs investigation.
So here is the challenge for the Democrats next year.
Of the 34 Senate contests in 2020, Republicans are defending 22 seats, while 12 are held by Democrats. They need a net gain of 3 seats to win a Senate majority if the Democrats win the White House (the Vice President has a casting vote) or 4 if Trump wins re-election.
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