Britain’s Brexit voters are disillusioned and fed up. As the country navigates one of the most important weeks in its political history, opinion polls paint a picture of a Leave electorate that is frustrated, angry and keen to embark on what brought us all here in the first place; rebellion.
Here’s what would keep me up at night if I were in the Prime Minister’s research team: nine in 10 Leavers say that most politicians are no longer listening to ordinary people. Three in four say that May and her Conservative government are handling Brexit badly. And nearly the same ratio feel that the main parties no longer offer an appealing choice of who to vote for.
If Britain’s Brexit moment provided an opportunity to pursue national renewal, restore the social contract and bring in voters who had long felt ignored then – as these numbers reflect – it has been squandered. And if one of the original aims of “May-ism” was to bring in to the fold a more working-class, pro-Leave and patriotic electorate who shared the Prime Minister’s ‘Brexit Means Brexit’ mantra, then what should be of serious concern is that today these are precisely the voters who look so thoroughly disillusioned.
This week’s events in parliament are bound to deepen this despair and disillusionment among Leavers. On the one hand, MPs are predicted to again reject something that has proven to be almost universally unpopular among Leavers: Theresa May’s proposed withdrawal deal. Ever since July 2018, when the PM and much of her Party began to huddle around versions of the so-called ‘Chequers Plan’, large majorities of Leavers and Conservatives have consistently registered their unhappiness with the proposals.
Most of these voters have never expressed support for the proposed deal, have said it is unacceptable and have routinely favoured a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. Even now, when asked by Opinium whether Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement is a ‘good or bad deal’, only 15% of Leavers say ‘good’. That means that the principal piece of legislation being advocated by a Conservative Prime Minister has always been opposed by a large majority of Conservative voters.
Meanwhile, parliament is also expected to reject something that Leavers and Conservatives do want: a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. Ever since the 2016 referendum, much of Westminster, the media and analysts have converged on a consensus that a no-deal Brexit would be utterly disastrous – while at the same time criticising Theresa May and her government for failing to adequately prepare for such an outcome.
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