- Britain will formally leave the European Union
Britain will formally leave the European Union in 2019. For the first time the EU will shrink. While there is still a range of possible outcomes, I still think that the most plausible outcome is that some version Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal will, ultimately, squeeze through the House of Commons. This will probably follow some concessions from the EU, pushing crunch votes as far back as possible and heaping pressure on Eurosceptics to accept a Brexit in the hand or risk losing it forever.
If I am right, then the passing of a deeply unpopular deal that has achieved the remarkable feat of uniting Remainers and Leavers will have strong political effects. It will feed an already palpable narrative of ‘betrayal’ among Leavers (see Prediction 6) as well as general disillusionment among Remainers. But, perhaps most important of all, it will also strengthen our emerging political identities as ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’.
Indeed, one of the big risks that faces Britain in 2019 is that Brexit continues to evolve from being a divisive moment in the history of our national politics into a more permanent dividing line that could yet lead to a fundamental realignment.
- There will be no mass ‘Bregret’
One of the more striking features of Britain’s Brexit debate has been the relative stability of public opinion. While the British have become more pessimistic about how Prime Minister May and the Conservative government are handling Brexit, and also about how leaving the EU will impact on the economy, there has been no mass ‘Bregret’ among Leavers.
And whatever the precise shape of the Brexit withdrawal deal and eventual relationship, I think this will remain the case. According to the most recent poll, when asked whether the decision to leave the EU was “right or wrong”, 89% of Remainers said it was “wrong” while 83% of Leavers said it was “right”. Even among all voters, 47% feel it was wrong and 41% feel it was right, while the remainder are not sure either way. As research has shown, this polarisation reflects the fact that the Brexit vote was never rooted in transactional considerations about the economy, but people’s deeper and more rigid values. And this is why Britain looks set to experience further political turbulence – which brings me to my next prediction.
- Britain’s Leavers will inevitably feel betrayed
Leavers might not have changed their minds about Brexit but they have become visibly more dissatisfied both with how Brexit is being managed and its overall direction. A year ago, when Leavers were asked how well or badly they thought the Conservative government was doing at negotiating Britain’s exit, 41% said “well” and 48% said “badly”. This seven-point lead for “badly” has since ballooned to 36 points. Today, nearly two-thirds of Leavers are unhappy with how Brexit is being handled.
And this is not just about the government’s basic incompetence. Rather, Leavers simply do not like the deal on offer. The most recent polls show that only three in ten Leavers support Prime Minister May’s draft Brexit deal while many openly say they would prefer to see Britain leave without a deal. In fact, if Leavers were given the option of May’s Brexit deal versus No Deal they would break by a 60-19 margin for No Deal.
So, assuming that May gets her deal through, or politicians intervene to prevent No Deal, we will be left with a large number of Brexiteers feeling betrayed by the whole process, which is basically where all of this started back in the early 1990s with the Maastricht Treaty, if not the first referendum in 1975. This is the reservoir into which a new pro-Brexit populist party could yet jump.
- Prime Minister Theresa May will stand down
While I expect the Prime Minister to lead Britain out of the European Union I also predict that at some point in the year ahead she will stand down as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Theresa May has always reminded me of Bruce Willis in the Die Hard franchise. There was always a scene in which Willis would be getting shot at by Uzi submachine guns. To survive, he would grab the nearest dead body and use it for cover as he ran across a room full of bad guys. For the Conservative Party, Prime Minister May is that dead body.
From one day to the next, she is soaking up all of the toxicity and negative energy emanating from Brexit. Indeed, the Prime Minister has already confirmed that even if she gets her Brexit deal through then she would not lead her party into the next election. But Conservative MPs, ever the ruthless pragmatists, won’t hang around. They will want her out of the way quickly so that they can promote new talent, reboot their domestic policy agenda and try and repair the Conservative brand in time to stop Jeremy Corbyn, which brings me to Prediction 8.
- Britain will continue to drift toward ‘Corbynomics’
We talk a lot about populism but less about protectionism. And we talk a lot about Brexit but not a lot about what might follow. Both of these observations lead us to Jeremy Corbyn who, as I have previously argued on UnHerd, has a better chance of becoming Prime Minister than many think.
Indeed, it speaks volumes that while political anoraks have spent virtually every day obsessing about Brexit, most of the people I know in the City of London have moved on to the question of Corbyn. They have sensed what the data tells us, which is that ‘Corbynomics’ – an assortment of more protectionist and redistributive economic policies – enjoy fairly widespread support. Ideas like renationalising rail, putting electricity and water into public hands, putting workers on company boards, raising tax on corporations and, more generally, redistributing ‘from the few to the many’ enjoy pretty strong support.
In fact, Corbyn’s more economically populist cry is far more in tune with the zeitgeist than Jeremy Hunt’s recent call to turn Britain into some kind of Singapore-on-Thames (free tip: a low-tax, low-regulation economy which is seen to be skewed toward helping big business over the ordinary worker is not where most voters are right now).
Among the British people economic pessimism is on the rise and so too is support for raising taxes in order to invest more in the country’s creaking public services. And while growth looks set to be rather sluggish I would not be at all surprised if more local councils go bust. All of this will help rather than hinder Corbyn. Whether he actually manages to exploit any of it, however, remains to be seen.
- Anti-Populists will remain in a cul-de-sac
While the political shocks of 2016 were some time ago there has still been remarkably little self-reflection among either Democrats in the US or Remainers in Britain about why they lost. Few thinkers or activists appear to have seriously thought through both how and why they lost key groups in society, like white working-class voters or white non-graduates, and also how they might win these groups back.
In Britain, I have been stunned by the utter failure of Remain organisers to shift gears and change the message. For three years straight, the basic message of the anti-Brexit camp has not really changed at all, and nor have the polls. This strikes me as just poor campaigning.
In the US, meanwhile, Democrats appear to still be consumed by identity politics (see Elizabeth Warren as a prime example), and are quick to shout down anybody who points out why this might be problematic. Relentlessly encouraging groups to focus only on what differentiates them, and urging them to define themselves only as victims who are engaged in a competition for recognition, is fine as a political strategy. Just don’t be surprised to find that along the way you are also encouraging the mass mobilisation of other groups on the same lines, and who feel that – rightly or wrongly – they too are being actively discriminated against.
In short, 2019 could be the year when both camps engage in serious self-reflection, ideological innovation and come out the gate with something surprising and interesting to say. But I predict that this won’t happen.
- Twitter will become even more unbearable
Meanwhile, on Twitter the never-ending cycle of virtue-signalling, the race to participate in the Outrage Olympics and cheer-on spontaneous witch-hunts or ‘pile-ons’ will reach dizzying new heights. People will be sacked and others will be ousted, presumed to be guilty before words have even been spoken.
Insignificant objects will suddenly find themselves as the symbol of today’s culture wars. Indeed, if the early days of 2019 are anything to go by – disputes over vegan sausage rolls – then we look set for a vintage year of Twitter hysteria.
Only, I’m not entirely sure I want to watch it unfold. Maybe it’s just my bad memory but Twitter did used to be a valuable platform for reasoned discussion. Today, however, it is neither particularly enjoyable nor interesting. So, here’s another and more personal prediction: I will leave Twitter in 2019.
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