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Humans are not fully rational creatures. We see the world through a collection of biases and rules-of-thumb which, in systematic and predictable ways, make us believe things that are simply wrong. They incite us to cling to arguments which support our beliefs, and reject arguments that don’t support them, in the face of contradictory evidence.
This is the motivating force behind large parts of our toxic discourse: it’s why left-wingers not only don’t share opinions with right-wingers, they often don’t even share access to the same facts. You can see it, right now, in the furious war over antisemitism in Labour. If you want to believe that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour is antisemitic, it’s easy to find examples. If you want to believe that Corbynite antisemitism is a Tory smear, it’s easy to find Tories doing that smearing. Our minds are geared to pick up the things that support our arguments and ignore the ones that don’t.
In the last 40 years or so, psychological science has uncovered a large number of the biases behind this tendency. For instance, there’s the availability heuristic. It means that we judge the likelihood of something happening not by any sort of statistical process, but by how easily we can think of an example. And that means that we tend to think of more dramatic, memorable, or widely reported things – plane crashes, shark attacks – as being more likelier to occur than they are.
This makes us make bad decisions: for instance, in the year after 9/11, around 1,500 more people died on American roads than usual, because the terrifying images made the idea of hijacking and the plane crashes more available to people’s memories. But, in fact, flying is far safer than driving. The availability heuristic killed half as many people as died in the two towers themselves.
Then there’s scope insensitivity, which makes us blind to numbers. For instance, in one study, three groups of people were asked how much they would spend to save X seabirds from an oil spill. The first group was told that X was 2,000; the second, 20,000; the third, 200,000. The three groups’ answers were, respectively, $80, $78, an $88. Apparently we don’t think about the numbers; we just picture a sad bird covered in oil, and put a dollar value on how sad that picture makes us feel.
This has obvious implications for policy: when we read that the NHS is denying a child an expensive cancer drug, say, we become appalled at the image of the child dying because we wouldn’t spend money – but don’t think about whether that same money could save several children with less dramatic but more tractable diseases.
The affect heuristic is our tendency to assume that if something is good in some respect, it’s good in all respects: so if we think nuclear power has lots of benefits, we also think it has few risks, and vice versa; if someone is attractive we tend to assume they’re clever and kind, etc.
If we go back to our antisemitism-in-Labour example, this is pretty obvious. If you think that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour is good in some ways – say, that it will be good for poor British people, or will be less likely to engage in wars overseas – it becomes very difficult to, at the same time, believe that it might be systematically racist against Jews. The two claims might be completely unconnected, but we find them hard to hold in our heads at the same time.
And, probably most relevant to the sort of argument that goes on on the internet, is the bias called motivated scepticism. This is highly related to the term ‘confirmation bias’, which you’ll definitely have heard of. In his book, The Righteous Mind, social psychologist Jonathan Haidt describes it like this: when we want to believe something, “we ask ourselves, ‘Can I believe it?’ Then … we search for supporting evidence, and if we find even a single piece of pseudo-evidence, we can stop thinking. We now have permission to believe.” Whereas if we don’t want to believe something, “we ask ourselves, ‘Must I believe it?’ Then we search for contrary evidence, and if we find a single reason to doubt the claim, we can dismiss it.”
That’s exactly what’s going on, again, in the antisemitism row. If you are instinctively opposed to Corbyn’s Labour, it is amazingly easy to find examples of him and the people around him behaving in extremely dodgy ways, giving you permission to believe it. If you’re instinctively in favour, then you can find examples of right-wingers using it as a stick to beat Labour with, and there’s your permission to dismiss it as a smear.1
It’s usually extremely obvious when your political opponents are employing motivated scepticism, and you will find it extremely easy to tear their argument down, especially since you are clever, and sophisticated, and aware of all of these biases.
Which is why the last one I’m going to mention is probably the most important. The sophistication effect, in which the most knowledgeable and politically engaged people, “because they possess greater ammunition with which to counterargue incongruent facts, figures, and arguments, will be more susceptible to motivated bias than will unsophisticates”.
Let’s go over that again: the better-informed and cleverer you are, the more vulnerable you are to certain biases, such as motivated scepticism, because you are more able to destroy the arguments that you don’t like, but still feel no particular desire to examine the ones that you do. If you’re a politically well-informed and intelligent Corbynite, it will be amazingly simple to find the examples of Tories using it as a smear, and vice versa.
So it becomes easy to tear down silly arguments by your opponents, and so you become ever more convinced of your own brilliance and their idiocy or malignity.
But it is hard to apply these skills to yourself and your own deeply held beliefs. For instance, I’m liberal and centre-leftish, and like many liberal leftish people, I tend to think of Islamic terrorism as an overrated threat. I can easily point out that the risk of terrorism in terms of deaths per capita is lower than that of drowning in the bath, say, and I can probably accuse people who think it’s a more deadly threat of both scope insensitivity and the availability heuristic.
But if someone points out that mass shootings in the US, which My Political Tribe is much more scared and angry about, are also very rare, and that I am probably guilty of both scope insensitivity and the availability heuristic, then I am much more likely to push back.2
This manifests itself as a feeling of fun, or at least as a satisfying activity. For it is immensely pleasing to tear down the arguments of your opponents. By contrast, it hurts to take your motivated scepticism and apply it to your own tribe, where it does not want to go.
But criticising your own tribe is more valuable. For one thing, your real life and internet circles largely consist of your own tribe – if I, a liberal atheist, write something criticising Christianity, it’ll end up on my Twitter feed where it’ll be read by a bunch of liberal atheists who already agree with it.
For another, criticism is harder to ignore, and more likely to change minds, if it comes from someone whose bona fides you trust. Owen Jones saying that Labour has an antisemitism problem is both more praiseworthy and more effective than Steve Bannon’s mate Boris Johnson saying the same thing.
As mentioned, I’m an atheist; I don’t tend to turn to Christianity for wisdom. But there are a couple of quotes we all know, and which are sort of embedded in the culture, which are relevant here. They are Matthew 7:5 – “Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye” – and Matthew 5:44 – ”Love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them which despitefully use you, and persecute you.”
That seems to me to be a partial way out of the echo chambers and filter bubbles that we seem to find ourselves in: look to the beam in your own eye, and love your enemy; apply the painful kind of scepticism to the things we like, rather than the satisfying kind to the stuff we don’t.
Obviously, though, that’s easy to say – it’s not easy to do. I’m dreadful at it: I still share those satisfying digs at Brexiters or Corbynites, even though when I know about motivated scepticism and all these things. That’s why GK Chesterton, the brilliant and grumpy Christian essayist, grumbled that “The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried.” Insofar as the Christian ideal is loving thy neighbour and casting out the beam in thine own eye, he’s still right.
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SubscribeSunak’s numerate money-man image will make him a plausible change from Boris when the latter steps down (or is pushed), which will look and feel like freshness and renewal without any need for a change of governing party.
Whether this is calculated or not I couldn’t say, but the issue for him in winning a leadership election is that he is not the only candidate who can deliver this trick for the Tories.
The latter will take equally great and malicious pleasure in electing someone like Liz Truss to become their third female leader, while Labour has never had one, or Kemi Badenoch as their first black and third female leader – and so on.
The Tories will do this because what better way to twit the party of identity politics than to rub its nose in diversity? By handing out seats expressly to people of negligible talent solely because they tick a sex or race quota box, Labour has ensured that all its own women and minorities are utterly gormless abject nobodies. So they’ve got David Lammy and Diane Abbott, who could not run a bath, while the Tories have Kwarteng and Badenoch and Sunak, who could. In its heart of hearts Labour knows this, and keeps electing selectively-educated middle-class white males to the leadership in consequence, whatever the election mechanism.
Like Hague in 1997 and IDS after 2001, but much worse, the problem Starmer has is not having enough MPs from whom to select a plausible team. The unemployable quota nonentities, anti-Semites and Marxist sociopaths who make up much of the PLP leave him with a desperately small front bench pool of credible and thoughtful people – a pool of roughly one, actually. The delicious irony is that Labour’s problem is as bad as it is not in spite of a lack of diversity, but exactly because of it. If you appoint people because they’re black or female, even though they are manifestly stupid, you end up with the PLP.
Kemi Badenoch, Sunak and co are stars and got where they are on merit. They’re smart, patriotic, aspirational and articulate. Only conservatives seem to recognise merit rather than the arbitrary things like race that Labour are obsessed by.
You’re not supposed to say articulate anymore.
I am all for a race free UK, which gives a finger to the new racists of critical race theory. This is in the direct line of the empire which was a multiracial empire.
I recognise there is irony sprinkled in this article, but this assertion seems genuine. On what evidence can this claim be made? We’ve seen £68 billion spent on paying people not to work; fraudsters have had field days with the various schemes Sunak hurriedly put in; national insurance has been increased to pay for the highly inefficient and largely ineffective NHS. When will those of us who have worked hard to generate the revenues Sunak is spending see our rewards? Judge a man by his actions, not his words (or carefully curated veneer).
If the state instructs people not to work, or compulsorily closes down businesses, it does kind of have an obligation to fund them!
So did Tony Blair. And look what he did to the country. Apart from gutting the constitution, starting a completely unnecessary war and filling the country up with foreigners, Blair was great.
I voted for Blair twice. And feel an eternal shame for my youthful blindness.
“£192bn disarms complaints present and future”?! Only those who think that there really is a magic money tree and are unworried by Sunak’s complete lack of a coherent plan to balance the books are disarmed by his profligacy. Most voters know that any fool can spend other people’s money and that they will be the ones who will have to repay it. Mr Lloyd seems to be in thrall to Sunak’s PR-generated image – to the detriment of his critical faculties.
Most voters are hypocrites, including the people on here who rage about government spending until it comes to protecting their inheritances! Perhaps ‘hypocrites’ is too strong a word, but it is very easy to say you support government making cuts, up until the point they affect you, then the cuts should be made somewhere else.
Agreed. In NZ 11 years ago voters were, in effect, asked to vote for policies that would narrow the gap between haves and have nots – and guess how that turned out ! you are correct- when push comes to shove financial improvement trumps most people’s ethical/moral motivations. So basically we have not moved past dog-eat-dog – and we also know that if have- nots make it into “have” land they will probably start voting for themselves as well. It is a paucity of genuine spirituality issue, not an economical issue cos there is plenty to go around. All the rest is just surface babble including much of what smart concerned people have to say about “it’. Another 1000 years of human development maybe things will be better – in the meantime I am going sailing !!
and you are burdened with the ghastly wide mouthed beaver…
Numerate people in Parliament are in very short supply. Numerate people who understand finance are in even shorter supply. Sunak does both. He is also polite which is another scarce commodity in public life. The sooner he is PM the better. Boris has been PM . He has got the T shirt . And he wants to go back to earning money . So there is not animus like there was between Brown and Blair.
And having a BAME PM will shut up the BLM mob and the Woke left.
It won’t shut them up, anymore than having two women PMs did.
They hate a BAME Tory far more than they would a white one.
No I think it won’t shut them up. He’s the “wrong sort of BAME”.
And even if it does take the wind out of their sails, they’ll just go and glue themselves to roads instead – because it never was about black people, or the environment – it’s all about left wing extremists disrupting the country.
He ain’t black!
He could always optimise the height perception by standing next to 5’4″ Sadiq Khan at every opportunity.
Reading this article I keep thinking of why the Conservatives picked Boris in the first place. Theresa May’s government was collapsing and the Tories were staring defeat to Jeremy Corbyn in the eye. Boris is not loved by the political class, but an 80 seat majority shows that he can win elections.
For Rishi Sunak he may be a very different character but it is also the case that being the number 2 is a very different job to leading. Theresa May, so effective as home secretary can attest to that. Not only that but as the article points out, he hasn’t really been put under pressure.
Sunak is also not the only potential Tory leader. Dominic Raab has fallen away but Liz Truss is able to point to her great success in building trade links post Brexit. She may very well be able to mount a campaign based around her foreign competence at a time when the country does need to build bridges.
Finally, Keir Starter is a very different Labour leader to Jeremy Corbyn. I suspect any candidate for the Tory leadership will have to bide their time. I fully expect the next election will be between Johnson and Starter. If Boris delivers another decent victory even after COVID and all the challenges it brings, I can see him leading the country for as long as he wishes.
A fun article, but ultimately I fail to see the point other than a Rishi puff piece, he really must have a good PR team!
‘Public opinion spurned her ( Mrs Thatcher ) it salutes him ‘
So how did Mrs Thatcher win three elections ? She was hugely popular .
And it’s far from being a ‘Rishi puff piece’ He clearly hates ‘Thatcherite’Rishi .
Says he wouldn’t hurt a fly unless it was dependent on social credit .
Maybe the strength of this Tory party is its diversity. Boris’s bombast and (I think) good political instincts, Sunak’s calm demeanour and eye for detail, Truss’s pragmatism, Gove’s intellectualism etc. Sunak, Badenoch, Kwarteng, Javid, Patel all there on merit and I feel with a distinct lack of the tokenism that Labour are so obsessed by. Plus some vocal backbenchers who challenge their own party which in my eyes is a strength not a weakness. Anyone who dissents in the Labour ranks like Rosie Duffield – well that’s the difference isn’t it. Boris doesn’t need to be everything, know everything, do everything, he has a team around him who can. In the world of L&D, which is my background, this would be considered a strong leadership behaviour!
I genuinely can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not?
The Civil Servants there liked her because she did as she was told to by them.
A Thatcherite? The man’s been spending like a drunken sailor ever since he came to office.
And whatever people say, most of that spending has been pretty conclusively shown to have been both unnecessary, and unhelpful for the country – by robbing our workforce of their backbone.
I’m actually convinced that it was the spending by Sunak that prevented mass disobedience by the population during Covid peak. He gave us bread, if not circuses.
I totally agree. Everyone i know, including Labour voters, thinks the furlough scheme saved the country from mass civil unrest and economic meltdown. It went against his small govt low spend instincts – and he did it anyway because it was the right thing to do. Boris the same – I consistently felt he absolutely did not want to lockdown. But he did because he took advice from the experts and the situation was unprecedented. I respect that.
“Sunak, comfortably warming his hands above the culture war inferno, will seem like a relief from it when he becomes Prime Minister.”
Good point. Can’t wait. Hope he gets in in time for 2024 so we can rebuild a shared sense of Britishness around breaking out the popcorn while we watch the Americans tear themselves apart over stuff we can tell ourselves we’ve fixed by pointing to him.
If everything in this article is true about his careful curation, political skills, social skills, communication skills, public appeal, lack of personal angst and his fanatical uxoriousness (I had to look that one up). Then fair play. He deserves to be PM and will probably be very good at it.
As the song says ‘if her daddy’s rich take her out for a meal , if her daddy’s poor …….’
But ‘fanatical uxoriousness’ here seems to mean having no known mistresses ??
Or, no mistresses. As we like to say round these parts when we aren’t implying something we have no evidence for.
Wasn’t implying anything of that kind . Not being with him 24 /7 I have no knowledge one way or the other . He seems a very ‘suitable boy’ , but it seems a bit much to describe him as fanatically uxorious on the available evidence.
Using the trope of fanaticism with regard to an Asian puts Will Lloyd at risk of being accused of unconscious racism anyway .
Not exactly difficult to make colleagues in the present cabinet look like political pygmies.
This is not sufficient to recommend Sunak as replacement for BJ when that day come.
“comfortably warming his hands above the culture war inferno”
Beautiful writing, very much appreciated.
Good to hear a positive article about a politician. Despite the barbs, it must be remembered that Boris promoted him from relative obscurity to No2. The eco-bluster is more than a little disconcerting, but I’m inclined to think Boris has shown as good judgement as you could hope for from a PM. I suspect Rishi Sunak is canny enough to see this and will maintain a hold at No11 for a long time while Boris takes the helm as long as things stay within striking distance of the track. Lordy I’m coming over all patriotic, better get stuck into my Frankfurter and Bordeaux before I sail my topper to Jersey to give those Frenchies what for.
Where Boris is witty, sophisticated, charming, educated, erudite and effing useless. Trump is coarse, crude, unfunny, a walking meme and utterly effective. Whilst Rishi is just a cardboard cutout who dreams of being the first politician to make MMT work or kill us all trying.
Boris has built a team around him that has true diversity, he won an 80 seat majority to get Brexit done and got it done despite the most outrageous shenanigans by Remainers and the EU winding down the clock and setting rules of the game designed to see it fail. He has good political instincts and knows how to connect with people – never underestimate the power of that. Covid and Brexit together are 2 unprecedented events, at the same time. I really don’t think he’s done that badly. My only wish was that he communicated intentions and reasons more clearly and wasn’t so desperate to be liked. That’s his real downfall I think.
Every event is unprecedented. Every leader has to deal with it. They might choose to deal with such events through cautious bravery, prioritising peoples ability to manage their own affairs, make their own decisions by properly understanding the issue at hand. Or they could bullshit their way through it, react to international and Twitter pressure, pretend that silver bullets exist and salvation is just around the corner, enrich their buddies and give themselves powers to whitewash over any issues and use the so-called ‘scientists’ to scare the bejeezus out of any fool who’ll listen.
Anybody can look back at the events and wonder if they are lah lah land. The handling of COVID has been absolutely extraordinary, and not in a good way.
If the spending goes against Sunak’s Thatcherite small govt low tax instincts I imagine he wouldn’t do it unless he felt he had to. To reject the language of victimhood and go against the grain of his fellow millennials by not embracing globalism, EU supranationalism and identity politics – to me these are the marks of a smart person.
I had to laugh when Boris Johnson was described as “necrotic” and “lardy”. Rishi Sunak has spent the last two years doling out the dosh, so of course he is going to be popular. However, it is a rule of politics that the natural successor never succeeds – at least as far as the Tory party is concerned.
Sunak on the whole has so far done popular things, like spending vast sums of money on a furlough scheme that was necessary but over extended. As far as I am concerned, he is much more impressive than Johnson, but that is quite a low bar!
Anyone that describes the public sector in the UK as “world class” and holds up a green briefcase for a photo op at COP 26 shouldn’t become prime minister IMHO.
If he’s that popular he’d better watch out for the knives being sharpened. He’s doomed.
“Why Rishi Sunak will Win” – I’m filing this with the James Kirkup piece “Why David Gauke is the future of the Conservative Party.”
In other word, a political Roger Federer.
Everything that Conservatives should admire – a self made man whose parents worked hard to give him a good education. Instead, the Shire Tories preferred Boris and voted for the walking disaster Truss.
Shire Tories? no… heome ceounties toylittories… never hunted the shires to hounds in their miserable, automaton, commuting, box ticking,out-tray filling, acetate clad, pointy shod, lodge attending golf club ruled pond lives…
Hear hear!!
Oh, dear.
But his rivals ARE pygmies… actually that is rather an insult to the tribe…
Sunak’s loyalty is not towards Britain or the British people but towards the Globalists
of the WEF and the UN.
The same is true of Boris Johnson and his
foolish, highly damaging and pointless
commitment to Net Zero.
The the current chancellor is an avid fan
of the Chinese Communist Party.
Why would anyone vote Conservative ?