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Bregrets, I've had a few. Credit: Tolga Akmen / AFP / Getty
The political geography of the UK is on the move again. Barely three years since the realignment of the 2019 General Election, which upended decades-old ideas of traditional Conservative and Labour areas, a new poll by UnHerd and Focaldata reveals a country that is dividing along new and surprising faultlines.
In 2019, our “UnHerd Britain” survey used a statistical technique called MRP to map six big cultural questions onto all 632 constituencies in Britain; this year, UnHerd has again partnered with Focaldata to conduct a survey of 10,000 people across the country. Rather than asking for people’s voting intention, we have investigated the underlying cultural controversies, new and old, that form today’s divisions and alliances and mapped each one down to constituency level.
We put 10 statements in front of voters, covering Brexit, gender ideology, political disillusionment, conspiracy, Net Zero, immigration, the monarchy, the cost-of-living crisis, housing and lockdowns. In each case, respondents chose whether they agreed or disagreed, and how strongly. Focaldata then analysed what the most predictive factors of each question were, including age, gender, working status, vote in the 2019 election and the EU referendum, and calculated estimates for each constituency. This technique, “multilevel regression and post-stratification”, or MRP, has been used with incredible accuracy to predict general elections.
You can look up any constituency, and see where it stands on the big talking points of the day. We will be releasing new results every week.
We begin with Brexit. Three years after we officially left the European Union, respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement, “Britain was wrong to leave the EU”.
The headline result suggests the country has dramatically changed its view since 2019. Focaldata estimates that in every constituency in the country except three, more people agree with the statement than disagree — i.e. tend to think that Brexit was a mistake. The only three outliers are all located along the Wash in Lincolnshire: Louth and Horncastle, Boston and Skegness and South Holland and the Deepings. Of these, only Boston has more people disagreeing than agreeing: it is the only place in the country which doesn’t feel regretful about Brexit.
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SubscribeOf course, it doesn’t really matter what electors think about anything. Government policy is not based on elector’s opinions, or on their votes, as the people who determine government policy are not elected.
well said
I would have agreed with you until recently, but Brexit does rather show that the Establishment doesn’t always get its own way. That Establishment clearly thinks the battle isn’t over yet though, so you may turn out to be right in the end.
I’m not sure that the Establishment isn’t getting its own way. It has the remit of ‘Enacting’ Brexit but given increasing numbers of left leaning, European leaning civil servants who lack the relevant skills, knowledge and political will to move it forward, it’s no wonder it’s a slow motion disaster.
Completely agree. In the absence of change, meaning divergence from EU legislation, Brexit hasn’t happened. All the civil service needs to do to stymie Brexit is…nothing.
Exactly!
But the stark choice of dumping EU legislation (on goods) means no exports of those good into the EU. British standards may be good enough for the rest of the world but not the EU. Having to comply with other country’s standards is the norm. Paradoxically, many EU laws and standards were instigated by the UK fgs! Presumably because the UK favoured such laws and standards!
Even when the UK was in the EU there were differing standards.
Tried using a French plug in the UK recently?
The UK exported 267 billion pounds worth of goods and services to the EU last year. And even then the deficit on trade in good was 67 billion.
Yes that’s lower than pre-Brexit, but then the UK isn’t the same country. And that has nothing to do with Brexit, and everything to do with incompetence.
The opportunities of Brexit have been scorned by elites who never wanted Brexit in the first place. And that includes Boris Johnson.
Even when the UK was in the EU there were differing standards.
Tried using a French plug in the UK recently?
The UK exported 267 billion pounds worth of goods and services to the EU last year. And even then the deficit on trade in good was 67 billion.
Yes that’s lower than pre-Brexit, but then the UK isn’t the same country. And that has nothing to do with Brexit, and everything to do with incompetence.
The opportunities of Brexit have been scorned by elites who never wanted Brexit in the first place. And that includes Boris Johnson.
The fact that Brexiteer governments haven’t changed much is partly because they are huge splits as to what things to change, notably between the free market and protectionist / levelling up versions of Brexit, plus obviously the huge distraction of Covid.
It is also very early days, we only formally left the EU years ago after being in it for 40! The fact is that the public is naively impatient and unrealistic about what can be achieved quickly, and our politicians are pretty dishonest about the time and patience needed to make long term change. They routinely over-promise and under-deliver (cross Channel boats?). This is not primarily the fault of the Civil Service, critical of it though I would often be.
The Right must get out of this obsession with cabals of malevolent actors acting behind the scenes. Apart from anything, whining is not a good political look. As voters are now determining, there are only so many times you can keep exploiting public concern about issues without doing anything to solve them.
Polling is all about the question. If you’ve been inundated with propaganda blaming Brexit for 6 years you’re likely to agree with the question.
Ask whether people want most of their law to be made in Brussels and see if you get the same response.
Polling is all about the question. If you’ve been inundated with propaganda blaming Brexit for 6 years you’re likely to agree with the question.
Ask whether people want most of their law to be made in Brussels and see if you get the same response.
Exactly!
But the stark choice of dumping EU legislation (on goods) means no exports of those good into the EU. British standards may be good enough for the rest of the world but not the EU. Having to comply with other country’s standards is the norm. Paradoxically, many EU laws and standards were instigated by the UK fgs! Presumably because the UK favoured such laws and standards!
The fact that Brexiteer governments haven’t changed much is partly because they are huge splits as to what things to change, notably between the free market and protectionist / levelling up versions of Brexit, plus obviously the huge distraction of Covid.
It is also very early days, we only formally left the EU years ago after being in it for 40! The fact is that the public is naively impatient and unrealistic about what can be achieved quickly, and our politicians are pretty dishonest about the time and patience needed to make long term change. They routinely over-promise and under-deliver (cross Channel boats?). This is not primarily the fault of the Civil Service, critical of it though I would often be.
The Right must get out of this obsession with cabals of malevolent actors acting behind the scenes. Apart from anything, whining is not a good political look. As voters are now determining, there are only so many times you can keep exploiting public concern about issues without doing anything to solve them.
Yep. If reality has disproven your Brexit delusions you can always fall back on the classic ‘stab in the back’ myth like the Germans after WWI, eh?
The method has been explained, granted without confidence limits. Are you doubting UnHerd’s integrity or Focaldata’s expertise, or both? Do you seriously believe either would disingenuously skew the figures? Why would they do so? Both are highly respected.
“Both are highly respected”
We live in an entirely polarised world and everything is grist to the mill.
What are the chances that UnHerd journalists were Remainers? What are the chances that the pollster favoured EU membership when forming the questions?
It’s all about the question and how it’s posed (not just the text of the question). There’s a wonderful Yes Minister sequence where Sir Humphrey demonstrates how you can get whatever answer you want by sequencing questions in the right way.
And what percentage of Brexit voters would be willing to answer pollster questions after 6 years of negative propaganda in mainstream media.
You need much more data about the poll to determine it’s accuracy. Polling in recent years has been a disaster in most countries.
“Both are highly respected”
We live in an entirely polarised world and everything is grist to the mill.
What are the chances that UnHerd journalists were Remainers? What are the chances that the pollster favoured EU membership when forming the questions?
It’s all about the question and how it’s posed (not just the text of the question). There’s a wonderful Yes Minister sequence where Sir Humphrey demonstrates how you can get whatever answer you want by sequencing questions in the right way.
And what percentage of Brexit voters would be willing to answer pollster questions after 6 years of negative propaganda in mainstream media.
You need much more data about the poll to determine it’s accuracy. Polling in recent years has been a disaster in most countries.
Why do you assume I was pro-Brexit? You have shown yourself a classic ‘bad loser’
The method has been explained, granted without confidence limits. Are you doubting UnHerd’s integrity or Focaldata’s expertise, or both? Do you seriously believe either would disingenuously skew the figures? Why would they do so? Both are highly respected.
Why do you assume I was pro-Brexit? You have shown yourself a classic ‘bad loser’
Completely agree. In the absence of change, meaning divergence from EU legislation, Brexit hasn’t happened. All the civil service needs to do to stymie Brexit is…nothing.
Yep. If reality has disproven your Brexit delusions you can always fall back on the classic ‘stab in the back’ myth like the Germans after WWI, eh?
I support Brexit, but of course, the explanation just couldn’t be, could it, that the balance of opinion among the electorate has shifted? it has done on numerous occasions at successive general elections.
Brexit has had a significant amount of poor luck, but many Brexiteers were cavalierly overconfident, to put it mildly, about how easy it would be to extract the UK from a 40 year old trading and of course political relationship.
I’m not sure that the Establishment isn’t getting its own way. It has the remit of ‘Enacting’ Brexit but given increasing numbers of left leaning, European leaning civil servants who lack the relevant skills, knowledge and political will to move it forward, it’s no wonder it’s a slow motion disaster.
I support Brexit, but of course, the explanation just couldn’t be, could it, that the balance of opinion among the electorate has shifted? it has done on numerous occasions at successive general elections.
Brexit has had a significant amount of poor luck, but many Brexiteers were cavalierly overconfident, to put it mildly, about how easy it would be to extract the UK from a 40 year old trading and of course political relationship.
We are now unfortunately in a world where it seems to be enough simply to make some huge assertion, without any supporting argument of any kind, presumably in the hope of getting loads of people agreeing with you or upcoming your comment or whatever
Such a definitive statement as you made is simply, and obviously not true. The UK HAS left the EU, despite ridiculous attempts to endlessly redefine Brexit – as what exactly – towing the UK into the Pacific and severing all ties with the EU?
well said
I would have agreed with you until recently, but Brexit does rather show that the Establishment doesn’t always get its own way. That Establishment clearly thinks the battle isn’t over yet though, so you may turn out to be right in the end.
We are now unfortunately in a world where it seems to be enough simply to make some huge assertion, without any supporting argument of any kind, presumably in the hope of getting loads of people agreeing with you or upcoming your comment or whatever
Such a definitive statement as you made is simply, and obviously not true. The UK HAS left the EU, despite ridiculous attempts to endlessly redefine Brexit – as what exactly – towing the UK into the Pacific and severing all ties with the EU?
Of course, it doesn’t really matter what electors think about anything. Government policy is not based on elector’s opinions, or on their votes, as the people who determine government policy are not elected.
Please could UnHerd publish a detailed statistical methodology, including the technique used to select the sample of individuals polled and confidence intervals at the national and constituency level. Thank you.
I second this request. How were the respondents chosen? 10,000 people isn’t many between 600+ constituencies
My thoughts exactly. And what if the question asked had been “Britain was right to leave the EU”?
As a statistician I can tell you such a question is inappropriate.. the interpretation of the word “right” has too many variables. The word “mistake” is much clearer.
As a statistician I can tell you such a question is inappropriate.. the interpretation of the word “right” has too many variables. The word “mistake” is much clearer.
My thoughts exactly. And what if the question asked had been “Britain was right to leave the EU”?
Plus what methodology was used to assess the questions for neutrality?
“Britain was wrong to leave the EU” is a statement, not a question, and may have influenced the replies. Had the survey been split into two respondent groups with the other group being told “Britain was right to leave the EU” then you could compare and evaluate the responses.
A better question might have been “Has the government made the most of the opportunities presented by Brexit?”.
I’d hazard a guess the response might be close to 100% negative.
That us a valid question but not necessarily a better question. It is an entirely different question. Perhaps you can list a few of those opportunities for those of us unaware of any at all.
That us a valid question but not necessarily a better question. It is an entirely different question. Perhaps you can list a few of those opportunities for those of us unaware of any at all.
I made precisely this point before then reading your comment.
A better question might have been “Has the government made the most of the opportunities presented by Brexit?”.
I’d hazard a guess the response might be close to 100% negative.
I made precisely this point before then reading your comment.
Which might be a reasonable request were you:
(a) more qualified to assess the statistical validity of polling companies than they are – are you?!
(b) to make the same request in respect of results you approve of. Which of course, I am pretty damn sure, you would not!
I second this request. How were the respondents chosen? 10,000 people isn’t many between 600+ constituencies
Plus what methodology was used to assess the questions for neutrality?
“Britain was wrong to leave the EU” is a statement, not a question, and may have influenced the replies. Had the survey been split into two respondent groups with the other group being told “Britain was right to leave the EU” then you could compare and evaluate the responses.
Which might be a reasonable request were you:
(a) more qualified to assess the statistical validity of polling companies than they are – are you?!
(b) to make the same request in respect of results you approve of. Which of course, I am pretty damn sure, you would not!
Please could UnHerd publish a detailed statistical methodology, including the technique used to select the sample of individuals polled and confidence intervals at the national and constituency level. Thank you.
It’s a bit like asking a motorist whose waiting for the AA if they regret their choice of vehicle. The years since the referendum have been chaotic and the immediate future looks grim but attributing cause and affect is premature. We will only be able to accurately judge the effects of Brexit a decade or more down the road. I’ve friends on both sides of the divide and none of them have moved an inch on the fundamental question.
I’m happy to have another referendum – in about 40 years. The same length of time that we were in the EU. Seems fair.
Interesting analogy, which captures rather nicely the uncertainty around the “what if” that the alternative represents. The EU has not exactly advertised itself as a place that’s attractive to democratic free nations since 2016, has it?
If the U.K. had remained in the EU I’m fairly confident that Ukraine would have received no help from the west, as the Germany/France axis would have ensured nothing was done, except the expression of sympathy. The U.K. acted, and adding critical weight to the USA, the EU had no choice but to act.
Excellent point.
..it’s a great pity the West did act on Ukraine in the first place! It’s a pity the CIA spent $5bn orchestrating the coup in 2014. It’s a pity the West didn’t condemn the genocidal attack on Russian speaking Donbas and sanction Ukraine for doing so. It’s a pity the West didn’t condemn the warmongering of NATO’s encroachment ever closer to Russia. If the West hadn’t intervened with its military support the war would be over long ago with tens of thousands of lives saved and billions in damage avoided, and Europe (especially the UK) saved from financial ruin, and millions fewer war refugees as well!
Excellent point.
..it’s a great pity the West did act on Ukraine in the first place! It’s a pity the CIA spent $5bn orchestrating the coup in 2014. It’s a pity the West didn’t condemn the genocidal attack on Russian speaking Donbas and sanction Ukraine for doing so. It’s a pity the West didn’t condemn the warmongering of NATO’s encroachment ever closer to Russia. If the West hadn’t intervened with its military support the war would be over long ago with tens of thousands of lives saved and billions in damage avoided, and Europe (especially the UK) saved from financial ruin, and millions fewer war refugees as well!
As far as new members might be concerned, the EU has tried to be resolute on Ukraine, it tried to organise a unified vaccine roll-out and is working on many fronts in terms of trade and development. Ukraine seems to think joining-up worthwhile.
I think you mean the way the EU negotiated with the UK, but they were bound to negotiate hard with a negotiating partner that thinks it would be better if they didn’t exist.
No, I certainly do not mean the way the EU negotiated with the UK, which I wholly admit the EU almost completely won. I refer to the way Greece and the other periphery nations have been treated continuously since 2011, the way Poland and Hungary keep getting into trouble for merely trying to make Brussels recognise its own commitment to subsidiarity, the manner in which Brussels looks the other way when Germany acts in open contempt of Single Market rules and how Germany is perfectly happy to accept a low exchange rate for its export-dependent economy but refuses to recognise that this should come with an obligation for fiscal transfers and debt-mutualisation. The list goes on considerably longer of course, but I’ll leave it there.
As regards Ukraine, it wants to be in NATO, quite understandably. The fact that NATO has been offered as a package with EU membership to serve the expansionary ambitions of the EU is not something that anyone ought to be proud of here. It did require the consent of a raft of idiotc US politcians as well as the raft of idiotic EU politicians to get us to this point admittedly, so it’s not fair to make this one entirely about Brussels. There’s a hell of a lot of blame to go round though, of course – plenty for everyone involved.
Excellent points excellently made.
Does Ireland count as a peripheral EU state? If so why is its growth rate 3 times the EU average (probably 30 times UK growth?) with a large trading surplus. You’re a tad selective in your states. Also Poland and Hungry are in flagrant breach of democratic norms such as the independence of the judiciary and breach of human rights. Please be fairer in your assessments.
Excellent points excellently made.
Does Ireland count as a peripheral EU state? If so why is its growth rate 3 times the EU average (probably 30 times UK growth?) with a large trading surplus. You’re a tad selective in your states. Also Poland and Hungry are in flagrant breach of democratic norms such as the independence of the judiciary and breach of human rights. Please be fairer in your assessments.
Where on earth do you get the idea that the UK thinks that the EU shouldn’t exist. We simply chose to leave and make our own decisions. That is no judgement on what other countries can or should do and no judgement is implied. You’re simply making this up.
The EU know that the ideological heart of brexit is a group of British free market politicians who believe that the EU should be replaced by a free trade agreement. That is what Farage says, Redwood, and the writers of ‘The Plan’ book, and many others. They have always loathed the EU project.
This is completely the reverse of what the EU is for, which is political stability, using trade, rather than trade solely for national economics sake.
A Euro-FTA alliance would not deliver the locked-in stability the EU desires.
I’m not making this up, I’ve read and listened to a lot on this subject.
But you are making it up. Redwood and Farage were not in the government and had no authority to do anything: they are not “the UK” and do not represent the UK or have any real say or influence on government policy.
You’re making the universal remain “category error” of assuming that all those who voted to leave the EU hate the EU and want to see it dissolved (or you deliberately wish to create this impression). This simply is not true.
I’m glad you implicitly accept that the EU is not – at heart – a free trade organisation. Because, despite its apologists, it is not.
I’m saying that the EU knew that behind the officials they were negotiating with were a long-standing group of tory and UKIP politicians who loathe the EU project, and believe it unneccesary and unworkable. Farage has been ranting for years. The prize for them was the EUs frictionless trade but without buying in to any of the political stuff that the EU hold dear.
I’m not saying and haven’t said anything disparaging about brexit voters.
Any history of the EU will say it is a political project to stabilise and develop Europe, with the EUs single market being a huge step towards that goal.
Clearly the EU has its own tariff walls, although in fairness it does seem to do a fair amount to help developing countries.
The EU was formed primarily to ensure peace in a perpetually war torn Europe. It was clear that commerce was a better bet that political unification.. so yes, trade is secondary but still the prime mover as the UK has discovered to its cost.. but then, to quote your great leader “f¤ck business”. The purpose of Brexit was to facilitate vast tax evasion, laundering dirty Russian money on the city and enriching the already obscenely rich 0.1%. The rest is merely collateral damage. Lucky for the 0.1% the 99.9% have been diverted with the most hilarious political sideshow ever seen in any alleged democracy.
I’m saying that the EU knew that behind the officials they were negotiating with were a long-standing group of tory and UKIP politicians who loathe the EU project, and believe it unneccesary and unworkable. Farage has been ranting for years. The prize for them was the EUs frictionless trade but without buying in to any of the political stuff that the EU hold dear.
I’m not saying and haven’t said anything disparaging about brexit voters.
Any history of the EU will say it is a political project to stabilise and develop Europe, with the EUs single market being a huge step towards that goal.
Clearly the EU has its own tariff walls, although in fairness it does seem to do a fair amount to help developing countries.
The EU was formed primarily to ensure peace in a perpetually war torn Europe. It was clear that commerce was a better bet that political unification.. so yes, trade is secondary but still the prime mover as the UK has discovered to its cost.. but then, to quote your great leader “f¤ck business”. The purpose of Brexit was to facilitate vast tax evasion, laundering dirty Russian money on the city and enriching the already obscenely rich 0.1%. The rest is merely collateral damage. Lucky for the 0.1% the 99.9% have been diverted with the most hilarious political sideshow ever seen in any alleged democracy.
“The EU know that the ideological heart of brexit is a group of British free market politicians who believe that the EU should be replaced by a free trade agreement.”
Actually, since the democratic mandate for EU membership was founded in the 1970s upon EEC membership which was in fact something very close to just a free trade agreement, it would be entirely fair to assert that that is all the EU should ever be, and if it is to change then the UK’s democratic cosent to membership must be reviewed.
But you are making it up. Redwood and Farage were not in the government and had no authority to do anything: they are not “the UK” and do not represent the UK or have any real say or influence on government policy.
You’re making the universal remain “category error” of assuming that all those who voted to leave the EU hate the EU and want to see it dissolved (or you deliberately wish to create this impression). This simply is not true.
I’m glad you implicitly accept that the EU is not – at heart – a free trade organisation. Because, despite its apologists, it is not.
“The EU know that the ideological heart of brexit is a group of British free market politicians who believe that the EU should be replaced by a free trade agreement.”
Actually, since the democratic mandate for EU membership was founded in the 1970s upon EEC membership which was in fact something very close to just a free trade agreement, it would be entirely fair to assert that that is all the EU should ever be, and if it is to change then the UK’s democratic cosent to membership must be reviewed.
The EU know that the ideological heart of brexit is a group of British free market politicians who believe that the EU should be replaced by a free trade agreement. That is what Farage says, Redwood, and the writers of ‘The Plan’ book, and many others. They have always loathed the EU project.
This is completely the reverse of what the EU is for, which is political stability, using trade, rather than trade solely for national economics sake.
A Euro-FTA alliance would not deliver the locked-in stability the EU desires.
I’m not making this up, I’ve read and listened to a lot on this subject.
I’m reading The Long Shot by Kate Bingham, the Vaccine Task Force Chair. She was a Remainer but made very clear that the EU made a hash of its vaccine development and would have insisted on
Britain following its procurement rules had we still been a member. Also, France and Germany approached Britain behind the EU’s back to create a three country alliance. Bingham ultimately declined. The EU was not amused by the Franci-German initiative. The British vaccine development and procurement effort was far more professional and nimble. And Bingham was very critical of Macron and Merkel’s ignorant and nationalistically spiteful disparagement and misrepresentation of the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine, which encouraged vaccine hesitancy, anti vax sentiment and caused, in her estimation, hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide.
I am a professional linguist and have studied, lived, and worked in Europe for years, but I campaigned hard for Brexit. My only regret is that the Tory party has so little appetite for making the most of it. Their collective ambition seem not to extend beyond forming the government. In office, but not in power.
My point was that the EU attempted to build a cross-border vaccine effort to help the smaller countries, wich is part of the point of the whole thing. Clearly there was a crisis with Fr/Ge over the vaccines which had to be resolved, and was ‘politicians being politicians’.
We were following EU rules, as interim members, and no-one else in the commentary thinks we would have had to join an EU scheme we disliked, any more than we have had to join other EU things we disliked in the past. What things in the EU was the UK forced to join against our wishes? Bingham isn’t an EU diplomat, or the PM of the day. The British PM would have said ‘we have our own scheme, and we don’t want to join yours’.
The Tories have struggled to come up with a single positive opportunity (apart from tax evasion for the 0.1% which they keep shtum about) emanating from Brexit. Clearly you know better. Can you list a few of the main ones for us slow folk who cannot see any?
My point was that the EU attempted to build a cross-border vaccine effort to help the smaller countries, wich is part of the point of the whole thing. Clearly there was a crisis with Fr/Ge over the vaccines which had to be resolved, and was ‘politicians being politicians’.
We were following EU rules, as interim members, and no-one else in the commentary thinks we would have had to join an EU scheme we disliked, any more than we have had to join other EU things we disliked in the past. What things in the EU was the UK forced to join against our wishes? Bingham isn’t an EU diplomat, or the PM of the day. The British PM would have said ‘we have our own scheme, and we don’t want to join yours’.
The Tories have struggled to come up with a single positive opportunity (apart from tax evasion for the 0.1% which they keep shtum about) emanating from Brexit. Clearly you know better. Can you list a few of the main ones for us slow folk who cannot see any?
No, I certainly do not mean the way the EU negotiated with the UK, which I wholly admit the EU almost completely won. I refer to the way Greece and the other periphery nations have been treated continuously since 2011, the way Poland and Hungary keep getting into trouble for merely trying to make Brussels recognise its own commitment to subsidiarity, the manner in which Brussels looks the other way when Germany acts in open contempt of Single Market rules and how Germany is perfectly happy to accept a low exchange rate for its export-dependent economy but refuses to recognise that this should come with an obligation for fiscal transfers and debt-mutualisation. The list goes on considerably longer of course, but I’ll leave it there.
As regards Ukraine, it wants to be in NATO, quite understandably. The fact that NATO has been offered as a package with EU membership to serve the expansionary ambitions of the EU is not something that anyone ought to be proud of here. It did require the consent of a raft of idiotc US politcians as well as the raft of idiotic EU politicians to get us to this point admittedly, so it’s not fair to make this one entirely about Brussels. There’s a hell of a lot of blame to go round though, of course – plenty for everyone involved.
Where on earth do you get the idea that the UK thinks that the EU shouldn’t exist. We simply chose to leave and make our own decisions. That is no judgement on what other countries can or should do and no judgement is implied. You’re simply making this up.
I’m reading The Long Shot by Kate Bingham, the Vaccine Task Force Chair. She was a Remainer but made very clear that the EU made a hash of its vaccine development and would have insisted on
Britain following its procurement rules had we still been a member. Also, France and Germany approached Britain behind the EU’s back to create a three country alliance. Bingham ultimately declined. The EU was not amused by the Franci-German initiative. The British vaccine development and procurement effort was far more professional and nimble. And Bingham was very critical of Macron and Merkel’s ignorant and nationalistically spiteful disparagement and misrepresentation of the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine, which encouraged vaccine hesitancy, anti vax sentiment and caused, in her estimation, hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide.
I am a professional linguist and have studied, lived, and worked in Europe for years, but I campaigned hard for Brexit. My only regret is that the Tory party has so little appetite for making the most of it. Their collective ambition seem not to extend beyond forming the government. In office, but not in power.
If the U.K. had remained in the EU I’m fairly confident that Ukraine would have received no help from the west, as the Germany/France axis would have ensured nothing was done, except the expression of sympathy. The U.K. acted, and adding critical weight to the USA, the EU had no choice but to act.
As far as new members might be concerned, the EU has tried to be resolute on Ukraine, it tried to organise a unified vaccine roll-out and is working on many fronts in terms of trade and development. Ukraine seems to think joining-up worthwhile.
I think you mean the way the EU negotiated with the UK, but they were bound to negotiate hard with a negotiating partner that thinks it would be better if they didn’t exist.
Great analogy. Thanks.
Considering the falsehoods/undeliverable promises of the campaign people will look at whether brexit was the right choice, and simply saying ‘ask in 10 years’ is not good enough. What’s going to happen then that makes such a difference, and who’s going to do it? The tories don’t look capable of doing much at the moment, and Labour won’t ever provide brexit satisfaction.
Fwiw I think a good number of brexit voters are just glad to be out of it (‘sovereignty’), which is fine, but we shouldnt say there’s any more to it than that if there isn’t.
There were falsehoods on both sides. The biggest being that remaining in would not automatically result in yet further loss of UK sovereignty, marketed as “sharing/pooling” to mask the increasing irrelevance of the Westminster Parliament. Mind you, the statement that the mere fact of a Leave vote would trigger an immediate and profound recession was a whopper as well. It was disproved by events. And no, our current economic travails, six and a half years later after 3 ruinous lockdowns and the biggest European war in 70 years are not cause and effect.
Isn’t balance a great thing in a discussion! Makes a change from the usual drum and rabble rousing rhetoric does it? Well said!
Isn’t balance a great thing in a discussion! Makes a change from the usual drum and rabble rousing rhetoric does it? Well said!
There were falsehoods on both sides. The biggest being that remaining in would not automatically result in yet further loss of UK sovereignty, marketed as “sharing/pooling” to mask the increasing irrelevance of the Westminster Parliament. Mind you, the statement that the mere fact of a Leave vote would trigger an immediate and profound recession was a whopper as well. It was disproved by events. And no, our current economic travails, six and a half years later after 3 ruinous lockdowns and the biggest European war in 70 years are not cause and effect.
I’ve tried that with many an AA man and the words ” Rover” and ” Range” not necessarily in that order, flow from their lips….
Then clearly they are outliers! or are they…
Do bear in mind guys will stick to their guns publicly rather than lose face but may well have changed their minds privately.
I’m happy to have another referendum – in about 40 years. The same length of time that we were in the EU. Seems fair.
Interesting analogy, which captures rather nicely the uncertainty around the “what if” that the alternative represents. The EU has not exactly advertised itself as a place that’s attractive to democratic free nations since 2016, has it?
Great analogy. Thanks.
Considering the falsehoods/undeliverable promises of the campaign people will look at whether brexit was the right choice, and simply saying ‘ask in 10 years’ is not good enough. What’s going to happen then that makes such a difference, and who’s going to do it? The tories don’t look capable of doing much at the moment, and Labour won’t ever provide brexit satisfaction.
Fwiw I think a good number of brexit voters are just glad to be out of it (‘sovereignty’), which is fine, but we shouldnt say there’s any more to it than that if there isn’t.
I’ve tried that with many an AA man and the words ” Rover” and ” Range” not necessarily in that order, flow from their lips….
Then clearly they are outliers! or are they…
Do bear in mind guys will stick to their guns publicly rather than lose face but may well have changed their minds privately.
It’s a bit like asking a motorist whose waiting for the AA if they regret their choice of vehicle. The years since the referendum have been chaotic and the immediate future looks grim but attributing cause and affect is premature. We will only be able to accurately judge the effects of Brexit a decade or more down the road. I’ve friends on both sides of the divide and none of them have moved an inch on the fundamental question.
The UK left the European Union in the early days of January 2020 when Sars Cov 2 was emerging in China.
Only this month 1.5 billion people who are crucial to the well-being of the global economy rejoined the rest of us. Only now will the old supply and demand issues reassert themselves and then there is the effect of hostilities in Ukraine. To argue these two issues do not affect people’s mood when trying to recognize what are and are not the effects of Brexit is partial, to say the least.
Realigning England was always a ten-year project as evinced by Capital Economics in their pre Vote report in 2016.
Personally rather like a domestic divorce when I see the behavior of the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol, we are talking about 2 Billion Pounds of trade from NI to mainland Europe, (context we export 40 Billion directly to Eire) and talk to the those from outside the EU who try to deal with the EUs ‘protection of the free market” I am more convinced than ever England was correct to leave.
There was always going to be pain, to begin with, and that’s before you consider the consequences of the worst policy decisions by the elites since 1914 over a respiratory illness.
Spot on and well put.
Agreed, and most knew the pain was coming since the doom mongers forecast far far worse pain. But as others here have said, Unherd seems to have joined the serried ranks of mainstream media in judging Brexit NOW! Just ridiculous.
Ian you are quite right when I talk to SMEs who voted for Brexit and are having a tough time they all acknowledge they knew there was going to a transition period.
Transition to what?
Closer alignment to ease their problems?
Not if the ‘trade benefits ard to be exploited’. With many different trade arrangements the current bureaucracy will obviously continue if not be expanded.
“Closer alignment to ease THEIR problems”? If you export into Xland you have to comply with Xland’s laws and standards. That is the norm the world over. It is so that for example you in the UK don’t end up with chlorinated chicken and hormone + antibiotic ridden beef from Argentina.. oops!
“Closer alignment to ease THEIR problems”? If you export into Xland you have to comply with Xland’s laws and standards. That is the norm the world over. It is so that for example you in the UK don’t end up with chlorinated chicken and hormone + antibiotic ridden beef from Argentina.. oops!
..so they are still all in favour are they, or did you forget to mention how much of a mistake they now think it is?
Clearly, some people think it was a mistake from the stats.. it wasn’t big business which has the resources to accommodate Brexit. Who is it I wonder?
Transition to what?
Closer alignment to ease their problems?
Not if the ‘trade benefits ard to be exploited’. With many different trade arrangements the current bureaucracy will obviously continue if not be expanded.
..so they are still all in favour are they, or did you forget to mention how much of a mistake they now think it is?
Clearly, some people think it was a mistake from the stats.. it wasn’t big business which has the resources to accommodate Brexit. Who is it I wonder?
Do you serious deny UnHerd or any other media its right to publish honestly got information? What’s your solution? Put UnHerd etc under state control? No doubt the media will also report on Brexit again in a few years, and again after that. The only other option is totalitarianism!
Ian you are quite right when I talk to SMEs who voted for Brexit and are having a tough time they all acknowledge they knew there was going to a transition period.
Do you serious deny UnHerd or any other media its right to publish honestly got information? What’s your solution? Put UnHerd etc under state control? No doubt the media will also report on Brexit again in a few years, and again after that. The only other option is totalitarianism!
The rest of the world also suffered from COVID, China, Ukraine, etc – so how come the UK is doing so much worse than other OECD nations? Since when has insularity been a good economic and trading characteristic?
It’s not, and we aren’t.
Quite. Many of us are actually pro free trade and open competition and opposed to protectionism. But they never listended, and they’re not listening still. All Brexit voters were, of course the same, insular little Englanders ! A simple reading of these comments should be enough to bust that myth.
You’re right! Protectionist Little Englander is the only sort of idiot in GB.. there are lots of others, varied and diverse.. there are the deluded and the misinformed; the deniers and the bewilfered, the dreamers and the gullible. You’re right… lots of different types of Brexiteers.
You’re right! Protectionist Little Englander is the only sort of idiot in GB.. there are lots of others, varied and diverse.. there are the deluded and the misinformed; the deniers and the bewilfered, the dreamers and the gullible. You’re right… lots of different types of Brexiteers.
Eh, yes you are! You really, really are.
Quite. Many of us are actually pro free trade and open competition and opposed to protectionism. But they never listended, and they’re not listening still. All Brexit voters were, of course the same, insular little Englanders ! A simple reading of these comments should be enough to bust that myth.
Eh, yes you are! You really, really are.
Walter take a look at the GDP per capita of France, Germany, and the UK for the last twenty years and you will see Germany is ahead of both and remains ahead of both countries which have very similar outcomes one of which is in the EU and the other which is not. Personally, I think to say France and the UK have maintained their comparators means nothing at this early stage.
As you know German has a much bigger manufacturing activity and a smaller service sector than the UK. Given the way, restrictions were pursued and affected different industries and within different countries the fact that the UK is about half a percent down is unsurprising. Much more interesting is a comparable trading block to the EU, the US was another half percent up on the EU.
The idea that we could realign all our trading relationships and get going whilst the restrictions were going on is fanciful and disingenuous.
It’s not, and we aren’t.
Walter take a look at the GDP per capita of France, Germany, and the UK for the last twenty years and you will see Germany is ahead of both and remains ahead of both countries which have very similar outcomes one of which is in the EU and the other which is not. Personally, I think to say France and the UK have maintained their comparators means nothing at this early stage.
As you know German has a much bigger manufacturing activity and a smaller service sector than the UK. Given the way, restrictions were pursued and affected different industries and within different countries the fact that the UK is about half a percent down is unsurprising. Much more interesting is a comparable trading block to the EU, the US was another half percent up on the EU.
The idea that we could realign all our trading relationships and get going whilst the restrictions were going on is fanciful and disingenuous.
There are a range of consequences of brexit and I’m not sure which you are prioritising, you don’t say. The sovereignty benefits are here today, apart from in NI.
Most recent coverage is about the economic effects which are gloomy, and people appear to have noticed this. This is not surprising- leaving aside overheated warnings, we knew brexit would cost and it is.
There’s often a lot happening, but the economic analysis can correct for this.
The question of whether trade has been detrimentally affected can still be assessed in the context of other world events.
But look at the KPIs and the forecasts will you? Where is the wriggle room? Where is the political leadership? The reason it all looks so gloomy is because it is all gloomy! It was a dreadful mistake. If you want comparators compare NI growth to GB growth.. the difference there? NI remains in the Single Market!
But look at the KPIs and the forecasts will you? Where is the wriggle room? Where is the political leadership? The reason it all looks so gloomy is because it is all gloomy! It was a dreadful mistake. If you want comparators compare NI growth to GB growth.. the difference there? NI remains in the Single Market!
…by “England” I presume you mean the UK (or maybe not?). By “Eire” I presume you mean Ireland. It’s very good of you to refer to my country in my own native language but I must insist you do likewise when referring to Italia, Espana, Deutchland, Belgique and Polska etc.
Spot on and well put.
Agreed, and most knew the pain was coming since the doom mongers forecast far far worse pain. But as others here have said, Unherd seems to have joined the serried ranks of mainstream media in judging Brexit NOW! Just ridiculous.
The rest of the world also suffered from COVID, China, Ukraine, etc – so how come the UK is doing so much worse than other OECD nations? Since when has insularity been a good economic and trading characteristic?
There are a range of consequences of brexit and I’m not sure which you are prioritising, you don’t say. The sovereignty benefits are here today, apart from in NI.
Most recent coverage is about the economic effects which are gloomy, and people appear to have noticed this. This is not surprising- leaving aside overheated warnings, we knew brexit would cost and it is.
There’s often a lot happening, but the economic analysis can correct for this.
The question of whether trade has been detrimentally affected can still be assessed in the context of other world events.
…by “England” I presume you mean the UK (or maybe not?). By “Eire” I presume you mean Ireland. It’s very good of you to refer to my country in my own native language but I must insist you do likewise when referring to Italia, Espana, Deutchland, Belgique and Polska etc.
The UK left the European Union in the early days of January 2020 when Sars Cov 2 was emerging in China.
Only this month 1.5 billion people who are crucial to the well-being of the global economy rejoined the rest of us. Only now will the old supply and demand issues reassert themselves and then there is the effect of hostilities in Ukraine. To argue these two issues do not affect people’s mood when trying to recognize what are and are not the effects of Brexit is partial, to say the least.
Realigning England was always a ten-year project as evinced by Capital Economics in their pre Vote report in 2016.
Personally rather like a domestic divorce when I see the behavior of the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol, we are talking about 2 Billion Pounds of trade from NI to mainland Europe, (context we export 40 Billion directly to Eire) and talk to the those from outside the EU who try to deal with the EUs ‘protection of the free market” I am more convinced than ever England was correct to leave.
There was always going to be pain, to begin with, and that’s before you consider the consequences of the worst policy decisions by the elites since 1914 over a respiratory illness.
Could this reflect six years’ worth of young people who couldn’t vote initially and who to a large extent represent the massive cultural shift we’ve seen over the last few years?
It might well do so, and it’s worth keeping in mind that these voters are quite likely also to think free speech is hate speech and that men can become women by saying so.
The poll described above surely also captured this effect, so it would be interesting to see what the result would be once you simply throw away the opinions of anyone who takes transgender ideology seriously. I know of course that you can’t do that in a real election, but for the purposes of working out who actually possesses rational views, I suspect the trend would alter considerably.
So we have already had the proposal that the free press be gagged.. now we are going to disenfranchise those with differing opinions as well. And we have had support for Poland and Hungary’s denial of judicial independence. Seems pretty obvious where this is heading… Heil Boris!
So we have already had the proposal that the free press be gagged.. now we are going to disenfranchise those with differing opinions as well. And we have had support for Poland and Hungary’s denial of judicial independence. Seems pretty obvious where this is heading… Heil Boris!
Yes indeed, and sadly it is they and not the curmudgeonly old gits (like me) who will inherit the whirlwind.
My generation has done much damage to the next generation and the one after that (today’s youth) but at least we didn’t dump them unto a backward looking, economic fiasco like my counterparts in GB!
It might well do so, and it’s worth keeping in mind that these voters are quite likely also to think free speech is hate speech and that men can become women by saying so.
The poll described above surely also captured this effect, so it would be interesting to see what the result would be once you simply throw away the opinions of anyone who takes transgender ideology seriously. I know of course that you can’t do that in a real election, but for the purposes of working out who actually possesses rational views, I suspect the trend would alter considerably.
Yes indeed, and sadly it is they and not the curmudgeonly old gits (like me) who will inherit the whirlwind.
My generation has done much damage to the next generation and the one after that (today’s youth) but at least we didn’t dump them unto a backward looking, economic fiasco like my counterparts in GB!
Could this reflect six years’ worth of young people who couldn’t vote initially and who to a large extent represent the massive cultural shift we’ve seen over the last few years?
It’s slightly depressing reading of course, but there is the key point in the article where it says this isn’t the same question as asking about support for Rejoin, for the very obvious reason that the EU we’d be rejoining is very different from the EU we left.
Pose a new referendum choice as to whether the UK joins the EU, submits its Armed Forces to French-led EU control, hands over tens of billions a year in EU fees, and joins the Euro just so that German taxpayers aren’t the only ones bailing out the periphery, and I can predict the answer with certainty. And it won’t be 52:48 either, it’ll be more decisive than that.
You have to add to this as well that the vote would be conducted with obnoxious clowns like Lord Adonis droning on and on, and Nigel Farage asking the country if they really want to hand victory to the class of people who the country utterly hated between 2016 and 2019 – and when I say “the country” I include a great many Remain voters who were as angry at the defiance of democracy as were Leave voters. The disgust most of us felt towards the political class has not evaporated, it is merely redirected into other forms of poltical scepticism at present. Put Lord Adonis on an EU soapbox in a Rejoin agenda though, and watch it all refocus onto the same issue again.
Indeed, as per my earlier comment, asking the question “are you happy with Brexit ?” is insufficient – and almost meaningless – without also asking “do you wish to rejoin the EU ?”. UnHerd should have asked both. Freddie clearly understood that these will produce different answers. So why didn’t they ? Feels like sloppy work.
You would have thought that asking two related questions would cost no more than asking one. But perhaps pollsters charge per question and that cost too much ?
Are you a statistician? If not then maybe best not to display your ignorance of the subject, eh?
Are you a statistician? If not then maybe best not to display your ignorance of the subject, eh?
As a member of NATO your armed forces are already at the behest of EU (and especially US) generals and Danes like Stoltenberg. The British Empire is gone guys.. you’re a vassal state of the US like the rest of us. Get used it! They told you to blow up Nordstream2 and you did.. though that was probably a labour of love for you… one in the eye for the EU as it were.
Indeed, as per my earlier comment, asking the question “are you happy with Brexit ?” is insufficient – and almost meaningless – without also asking “do you wish to rejoin the EU ?”. UnHerd should have asked both. Freddie clearly understood that these will produce different answers. So why didn’t they ? Feels like sloppy work.
You would have thought that asking two related questions would cost no more than asking one. But perhaps pollsters charge per question and that cost too much ?
As a member of NATO your armed forces are already at the behest of EU (and especially US) generals and Danes like Stoltenberg. The British Empire is gone guys.. you’re a vassal state of the US like the rest of us. Get used it! They told you to blow up Nordstream2 and you did.. though that was probably a labour of love for you… one in the eye for the EU as it were.
It’s slightly depressing reading of course, but there is the key point in the article where it says this isn’t the same question as asking about support for Rejoin, for the very obvious reason that the EU we’d be rejoining is very different from the EU we left.
Pose a new referendum choice as to whether the UK joins the EU, submits its Armed Forces to French-led EU control, hands over tens of billions a year in EU fees, and joins the Euro just so that German taxpayers aren’t the only ones bailing out the periphery, and I can predict the answer with certainty. And it won’t be 52:48 either, it’ll be more decisive than that.
You have to add to this as well that the vote would be conducted with obnoxious clowns like Lord Adonis droning on and on, and Nigel Farage asking the country if they really want to hand victory to the class of people who the country utterly hated between 2016 and 2019 – and when I say “the country” I include a great many Remain voters who were as angry at the defiance of democracy as were Leave voters. The disgust most of us felt towards the political class has not evaporated, it is merely redirected into other forms of poltical scepticism at present. Put Lord Adonis on an EU soapbox in a Rejoin agenda though, and watch it all refocus onto the same issue again.
I think most of this dismay comes from the Government’s betrayal of the Brexit vote especially ignoring the demand to control immigration, where they have merely swapped East European immigrants for Asians and Africans. Furthermore the Government isn’t using its newfound political independence to bring in any laws that benefit the public.
Why anyone thought anything but this would happen when they voted to leave is beyond me.
I’ll accept a charge of naivety.
I actually DID think that, having gone to the people with the question, our political establishment would enact the result fairly, and with competence, rather than trying to sabotage it.
I expect that is why, like so many people, I have lost all confidence in them.
What laws from the EU didn’t benefit the people of the UK? Was it oppressive to have a 900w limit on motors in vacuum cleaners?
The UK always had much more control of its borders and immigration than it let on while in the EU. But it was convenient to blame the EU.
That 900w limit sucks.
EU food safety / labelling laws were crippling for me as a (very) small chocolate maker.
That 900w limit sucks.
EU food safety / labelling laws were crippling for me as a (very) small chocolate maker.
I’ll accept a charge of naivety.
I actually DID think that, having gone to the people with the question, our political establishment would enact the result fairly, and with competence, rather than trying to sabotage it.
I expect that is why, like so many people, I have lost all confidence in them.
What laws from the EU didn’t benefit the people of the UK? Was it oppressive to have a 900w limit on motors in vacuum cleaners?
The UK always had much more control of its borders and immigration than it let on while in the EU. But it was convenient to blame the EU.
I think most of this dismay comes from the Government’s betrayal of the Brexit vote especially ignoring the demand to control immigration, where they have merely swapped East European immigrants for Asians and Africans. Furthermore the Government isn’t using its newfound political independence to bring in any laws that benefit the public.
Why anyone thought anything but this would happen when they voted to leave is beyond me.
People love to believe in bullshit. Who answered these questions? Who was asked? In 30 years of political engagement i have only been asked my opinion twice, both times I was told, after two answers, that I was the wrong demographic. I stopped reading after the first paragraph. This is not the opinions of my fellow voters, it is the opinions of the person who paid for it.
I never been asked, ever. I’ve also not voted for 20 years so maybe they’ve “pulled a Homer” on that one.
Maybe take some basic reading in the statistics of random sampling. See you at the next election.
Maybe some basic reading of my comment is also required….
Maybe some basic reading of my comment is also required….
I never been asked, ever. I’ve also not voted for 20 years so maybe they’ve “pulled a Homer” on that one.
Maybe take some basic reading in the statistics of random sampling. See you at the next election.
People love to believe in bullshit. Who answered these questions? Who was asked? In 30 years of political engagement i have only been asked my opinion twice, both times I was told, after two answers, that I was the wrong demographic. I stopped reading after the first paragraph. This is not the opinions of my fellow voters, it is the opinions of the person who paid for it.
So the “Counter- Reformation “ has begun. A double-barrelled assault in today’s UnHerd.
Let us hope it is NOT as poisonous as last time!
Except this time there will be no comeback for the EU – it’s in short and long term decline so there won’t be any attraction to rejoining. However it would be nice to see a few heads rolling as a consequence of some the incompetence on display in implementing Brexit.
In a nutshell!
Why would it be in decline?
It’s a union a member states to lock-in stability, based on the historic belief that Europe is a ‘dangerous continent’ that rapidly fall into conflict without a clear unifying political structure.
Theres also diplomacy, deal-making and development grants to sweeten the offer.
If the EU is unneccesary then fair enough but I haven’t heard anyone state Europe is no longer in need of the stability and prosperity the EU was setup to promote.
In a nutshell!
Why would it be in decline?
It’s a union a member states to lock-in stability, based on the historic belief that Europe is a ‘dangerous continent’ that rapidly fall into conflict without a clear unifying political structure.
Theres also diplomacy, deal-making and development grants to sweeten the offer.
If the EU is unneccesary then fair enough but I haven’t heard anyone state Europe is no longer in need of the stability and prosperity the EU was setup to promote.
Utter rubbish Charlie.. and so predictable.
Except this time there will be no comeback for the EU – it’s in short and long term decline so there won’t be any attraction to rejoining. However it would be nice to see a few heads rolling as a consequence of some the incompetence on display in implementing Brexit.
Utter rubbish Charlie.. and so predictable.
So the “Counter- Reformation “ has begun. A double-barrelled assault in today’s UnHerd.
Let us hope it is NOT as poisonous as last time!
Ah! There it is!
After 7 years of concerted sabotage attempts by almost every parliamentary, business, media, and governing agency in the land, Unherd’s Freddy Sayers (“nice” Metropolitan left-liberal views and European family) reveals a survey telling us all how we bitterly regret voting to leave the beloved EU.
The survey actually covers many interesting motivators, but strangely enough the entire written article is all and only about Brexit. Being a mistake. Well, whaddaya know?
And so the colours are nailed firmly to the Unherd mast? We’ll see I suppose…
There is a credibility problem here.I have yet to meet anybody I know who regrets voting to leave and strangely enough one reads the same thing again and again whenever we are all told we regret Brexit.
I fear our Freddy has just made his first move to join all those other disbelieved “experts” that are now so common in today’s rotten establishment. I hope that I am wrong.
Is it possible that your circle is very closely defined and is therefore unrepresentative of the nation as a whole?
That’s certainly possible. But it’s also possible that the pollsters aren’t sampling enough from this group.
Quite.
And my comment was more about careful selection and presentation of this survey than a comment on people I know.
If Freddy is going to start to write propagandist puff pieces for Rejoin, then he’s going to have to declare himself, (a la Matthew Parris), or be a little less obvious…
Quite.
And my comment was more about careful selection and presentation of this survey than a comment on people I know.
If Freddy is going to start to write propagandist puff pieces for Rejoin, then he’s going to have to declare himself, (a la Matthew Parris), or be a little less obvious…
That’s certainly possible. But it’s also possible that the pollsters aren’t sampling enough from this group.
Let me guess: if the polling had gone the other way you’d be hailing it as some sort of vindication of the Leave vote and national rejection of our woke lizard overlords?
Nope. You have the wrong man.
Call me old fashioned. But I just happen to dislike attempts to gerrymander our democracy
Nope. You have the wrong man.
Call me old fashioned. But I just happen to dislike attempts to gerrymander our democracy
Presumably Freddy is simply reporting the poll results. At this point we don’t know how he would have voted. The article says the results on the other questions will be released over coming weeks.
I am not sure this article reads as showing bias in one direction or the other. Even though I still believe Brexit was the right choice on principle and I am quite certain on the point, I have to admit that the manner in which it was executed was bad to the point of being globally humiliating, and that what little benefits we gained from the exit deal haven’t even been leveraged yet. These reservations could easily crystallise in any multiple choice poll into looking a little like regret for Brexit itself.
It’s two years into a strategic change in economic course – it’s beyond daft judging Brexit now even if things had been normal; but we’ve had covid and the Ukraine war, two of the biggest economic events in the last 50 years.
As a means of assessing public dissatisfaction this poll is worth doing; but to interpret it as an assessment of Brexit after just 2 years, I have to agree with the OP that this makes Unherd appear to be part of the scaremongering reactive media herd – very disappointing, and maybe it’s time to leave for Spiked!
The rest of the OECD has had COVID and Ukraine as well, and the UK is still the worst performing economy. But I admit, you now have a free trade agreement with Australia. And the 350M pounds for the NHS has really wrought miracles.
The rest of the OECD has had COVID and Ukraine as well, and the UK is still the worst performing economy. But I admit, you now have a free trade agreement with Australia. And the 350M pounds for the NHS has really wrought miracles.
It’s two years into a strategic change in economic course – it’s beyond daft judging Brexit now even if things had been normal; but we’ve had covid and the Ukraine war, two of the biggest economic events in the last 50 years.
As a means of assessing public dissatisfaction this poll is worth doing; but to interpret it as an assessment of Brexit after just 2 years, I have to agree with the OP that this makes Unherd appear to be part of the scaremongering reactive media herd – very disappointing, and maybe it’s time to leave for Spiked!
Is it possible that your circle is very closely defined and is therefore unrepresentative of the nation as a whole?
Let me guess: if the polling had gone the other way you’d be hailing it as some sort of vindication of the Leave vote and national rejection of our woke lizard overlords?
Presumably Freddy is simply reporting the poll results. At this point we don’t know how he would have voted. The article says the results on the other questions will be released over coming weeks.
I am not sure this article reads as showing bias in one direction or the other. Even though I still believe Brexit was the right choice on principle and I am quite certain on the point, I have to admit that the manner in which it was executed was bad to the point of being globally humiliating, and that what little benefits we gained from the exit deal haven’t even been leveraged yet. These reservations could easily crystallise in any multiple choice poll into looking a little like regret for Brexit itself.
Ah! There it is!
After 7 years of concerted sabotage attempts by almost every parliamentary, business, media, and governing agency in the land, Unherd’s Freddy Sayers (“nice” Metropolitan left-liberal views and European family) reveals a survey telling us all how we bitterly regret voting to leave the beloved EU.
The survey actually covers many interesting motivators, but strangely enough the entire written article is all and only about Brexit. Being a mistake. Well, whaddaya know?
And so the colours are nailed firmly to the Unherd mast? We’ll see I suppose…
There is a credibility problem here.I have yet to meet anybody I know who regrets voting to leave and strangely enough one reads the same thing again and again whenever we are all told we regret Brexit.
I fear our Freddy has just made his first move to join all those other disbelieved “experts” that are now so common in today’s rotten establishment. I hope that I am wrong.
What baffles me about the EU and Britain’s erstwhile membership of it, is as to why our politicians, whether we were members of the Fourth Reich EU or not, seem incapable at looking at other EU/ non EU policies that work… and copying them, such as…. Being paid to dispose of garbage and bottles, strict monotoring of police, no CCTV, and paying bills within 28 days ( Germany) , low taxes and ability to do individual tax deals with incoming wealthy individuals and families ( Switzerland), strictly monitored policing ( Germany) low drink and cigarette prices ( anywhere but nu britn), high speed limits ( Germany) Efficient and well managed trains and roads ( France switzerland and Germany), and so many more… and finallly one from Japan..and Switzerland.. highly controlled immigration. When put together with Britain’s superb variation of all available international food, and our legal and courts system ( with the addition of the French investigating magistrate system) when properly funded, and a German/French model health system incorporating free care+ an insurance system…. We are just about perfect?
Those are not ‘EU policies’, but merely the different measures in different EU membership states, or non-EU states.
Those are not ‘EU policies’, but merely the different measures in different EU membership states, or non-EU states.
What baffles me about the EU and Britain’s erstwhile membership of it, is as to why our politicians, whether we were members of the Fourth Reich EU or not, seem incapable at looking at other EU/ non EU policies that work… and copying them, such as…. Being paid to dispose of garbage and bottles, strict monotoring of police, no CCTV, and paying bills within 28 days ( Germany) , low taxes and ability to do individual tax deals with incoming wealthy individuals and families ( Switzerland), strictly monitored policing ( Germany) low drink and cigarette prices ( anywhere but nu britn), high speed limits ( Germany) Efficient and well managed trains and roads ( France switzerland and Germany), and so many more… and finallly one from Japan..and Switzerland.. highly controlled immigration. When put together with Britain’s superb variation of all available international food, and our legal and courts system ( with the addition of the French investigating magistrate system) when properly funded, and a German/French model health system incorporating free care+ an insurance system…. We are just about perfect?
Not a great start when you’ve still got the disgraced Mike Hill down as MP for Hartlepool. What else have you got wrong ?
Not a great start when you’ve still got the disgraced Mike Hill down as MP for Hartlepool. What else have you got wrong ?
A Brexit that hadn’t been consistently undermined by Britain’s institutions, politicians and an EU determined to punish Britain for its temerity would have looked very different.
Factor in Covid, Lockdown and Ukraine and it’s not hard to understand that Britain, like most other countries, has suffered over the last few years regardless of any good or bad effects from Brexit. The strongly pro-remain BBC has explained almost all Britain’s woes as being Brexit-related.
So the swing in opinion isn’t remotely surprising. Perhaps the question should have included a rider that allowed respondents to express the extent to which they feel Britain’s current woes can be attributed to Brexit as opposed the other things that have happened to us since 2019.
A Brexit that hadn’t been consistently undermined by Britain’s institutions, politicians and an EU determined to punish Britain for its temerity would have looked very different.
Factor in Covid, Lockdown and Ukraine and it’s not hard to understand that Britain, like most other countries, has suffered over the last few years regardless of any good or bad effects from Brexit. The strongly pro-remain BBC has explained almost all Britain’s woes as being Brexit-related.
So the swing in opinion isn’t remotely surprising. Perhaps the question should have included a rider that allowed respondents to express the extent to which they feel Britain’s current woes can be attributed to Brexit as opposed the other things that have happened to us since 2019.
I don’t believe a word of it. I am surprised at you Freddie (or maybe not). Unherd is increasingly parroting the Herd Groupthink but in a wheedling, rather dishonest way.
Moo.
QED
QED
Moo.
I don’t believe a word of it. I am surprised at you Freddie (or maybe not). Unherd is increasingly parroting the Herd Groupthink but in a wheedling, rather dishonest way.
From your constituency maps it appears that you did not consider Northern Ireland worth
surveying. In the context of Brexit that is unwise, although I suspect not much will have changed since the referendum. However the mess following Brexit and the lack of progress in building on freedoms (if they exist) is in no small part due to the mess that was the partial dismantling of the UK and subsequent unilateral threats to disapply part or all of the protocol. The lies that were told to get Brexit done have come home to roost!
From your constituency maps it appears that you did not consider Northern Ireland worth
surveying. In the context of Brexit that is unwise, although I suspect not much will have changed since the referendum. However the mess following Brexit and the lack of progress in building on freedoms (if they exist) is in no small part due to the mess that was the partial dismantling of the UK and subsequent unilateral threats to disapply part or all of the protocol. The lies that were told to get Brexit done have come home to roost!
There are conflicting opinions on the purpose and objectives of the EU. This Swedish film goes behind the scenes at the EU. https://youtube.com/watch?v=xMuUEd6w54E&feature=share
There is no doubt some “signal” (sustainable trend) in this data. But we really need to consider just how much “noise” there is in here too. Running this sort of survey when the public mood in general is highly pessimistic (far too much so in my view) is always going to produce this sort of result. And – as the author I think admits – general government unpopularity is always going to result in negative views on government policies. The fact that these views are expressed now does not mean they would be at a real election (this is effectively mid-term polling). But is this the right question ? Or the right time to pass judgement ? I would expect them to be much attentuated then.
Why didn’t UnHerd also ask the question “Do you wish to rejoin the EU” at the same time ? There’s certainly a large group of people who are unhappy with where Brexit is *at the moment* and would still not want to rejoin (almost certainly on less agreable terms). Without that, I suspect we risk “measuring noise” here.
I also question whether it isn’t still much too early to properly evaluate Brexit. UK policies are still adjusting. Future EU policies and direction are also still changing/unclear in many critical areas (for example, how to handle the debts of the southern countries, whether Poland and Hungary will be permitted to create their own laws as they see fit). We are still in the “punishment phase” where the EU is more focused on “proving” that the UK was wrong to leave rather than doing something about the more pressing real problems on its own doorstep.
There was a poll conducted pre-2016 in which people were asked if they would vote the UK into a federal EU which included Euro membership, Brussels control of the Armed Forces and taxation substantially taken over at the federal level, with Westminister effectively becoming a regional devolved assembly with no real power. Support for this was just 4% of those polled.
Since this is what EU membership now involves – albeit at a date that is somewhere in the near to medium term future – a Rejoin agenda would have to persuade the UK electorate of this proposition. It also follows, interestingly, that support for EU membership in 2016 was based to a great degree upon ignorance of what EU membership actually involves. So much for Brexit voters not understanding what they voted for.
I always admire this rhetorical ploy where “England” is cast against “Brussels” as if England was not an influential part of Brussels. Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel, Dr Johnson famously said.
I have no idea why your comment is relevant here. You appear to be arguing with somebody else about something else.
However he famously said it with regards to the short lived “Patriot” political faction not with regards to the emotion. Using a logical fallacy is bad enough, misusing one is pitiable.
I have no idea why your comment is relevant here. You appear to be arguing with somebody else about something else.
However he famously said it with regards to the short lived “Patriot” political faction not with regards to the emotion. Using a logical fallacy is bad enough, misusing one is pitiable.
I always admire this rhetorical ploy where “England” is cast against “Brussels” as if England was not an influential part of Brussels. Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel, Dr Johnson famously said.
There was a poll conducted pre-2016 in which people were asked if they would vote the UK into a federal EU which included Euro membership, Brussels control of the Armed Forces and taxation substantially taken over at the federal level, with Westminister effectively becoming a regional devolved assembly with no real power. Support for this was just 4% of those polled.
Since this is what EU membership now involves – albeit at a date that is somewhere in the near to medium term future – a Rejoin agenda would have to persuade the UK electorate of this proposition. It also follows, interestingly, that support for EU membership in 2016 was based to a great degree upon ignorance of what EU membership actually involves. So much for Brexit voters not understanding what they voted for.
There is no doubt some “signal” (sustainable trend) in this data. But we really need to consider just how much “noise” there is in here too. Running this sort of survey when the public mood in general is highly pessimistic (far too much so in my view) is always going to produce this sort of result. And – as the author I think admits – general government unpopularity is always going to result in negative views on government policies. The fact that these views are expressed now does not mean they would be at a real election (this is effectively mid-term polling). But is this the right question ? Or the right time to pass judgement ? I would expect them to be much attentuated then.
Why didn’t UnHerd also ask the question “Do you wish to rejoin the EU” at the same time ? There’s certainly a large group of people who are unhappy with where Brexit is *at the moment* and would still not want to rejoin (almost certainly on less agreable terms). Without that, I suspect we risk “measuring noise” here.
I also question whether it isn’t still much too early to properly evaluate Brexit. UK policies are still adjusting. Future EU policies and direction are also still changing/unclear in many critical areas (for example, how to handle the debts of the southern countries, whether Poland and Hungary will be permitted to create their own laws as they see fit). We are still in the “punishment phase” where the EU is more focused on “proving” that the UK was wrong to leave rather than doing something about the more pressing real problems on its own doorstep.
Way to miss the point Unherd, the question you ask, here and now, is noise, it is not signal (to use the cliche). You are just picking up on a couple wrong things: –
1) Everything is 100% FUBAR Now. (military acronym, fu* *ed up beyond all repair) Because these insane globalists Lizard People in office, with their Covid-19 response of destroying the economy, health, education, wealth, savings, pensions, and trust in Gov – and causing massive Inflation and interest rates rocketing
AND
2) With this insane WWIII the Lizard people, Globalists in Westminster, have created out of a Regional Conflict which was not in their interests – the world is about enter a Great Depression, Global Famine, and total realignment of world powers – and maybe a Nuke attack…
See – these Orwellian Sheep, Useful Idiots, you polled – have been convinced that without lockup, and the 6 Vaxes they had – they would be dead – And they have been made to believe the Russian Sanctions and Billions of £ borrowed and sent to Zalenski to steal, and the military sending all its hardware to Ukraine to destabilize the globe and cause a global depression and Famine – that if all that was not done – that it would mean they ‘Hate Freedom and Justice’.
The Lizard Davos Government in Westminster have destroyed UK – and made everyone think the reason they cannot afford eggs is because Brexit!
All your stupid Noise instead of signal Poll proved was the AGENDA has the sheep 100% stumped and convinced that white is black and good is bad….
As the MSM says ———–> LOOK! A BREXIT!!! (squirrel) and the sheep look and are distracted – and that is why the poll result is so stupid.
Lol. I couldn’t work out whether your comment was intended entirely sarcastically, in either direction! It made me giggle thought, and it reminded of the Netflix series Inside Job.
What is true, though, is that there is an objective truth and no-one has a monopoly on it. Powerful people, or people with an interest in obfuscating or distorting the objective truth, also have an interest in presenting truthful things (eg the fact that the WHO is transforming itself into a hard power system of global governance, the fact of significant numbers of pharmaceutical harms) all mixed up with palpable nonsense (the lizard people, flat earth, snake venom in the vax, drinking bleach, that sort of thing) in order to discredit those seeking to speak truth, make it harder and less comfortable for people to seek truth, and simply confuse and distract people.
So, ironically (and amusing as it was), in my opinion your comment did exactly what you were accusing Unherd of doing: increasing the noise and further burying the signal. Maybe that was your intention, or maybe not, I don’t know.
Lol. I couldn’t work out whether your comment was intended entirely sarcastically, in either direction! It made me giggle thought, and it reminded of the Netflix series Inside Job.
What is true, though, is that there is an objective truth and no-one has a monopoly on it. Powerful people, or people with an interest in obfuscating or distorting the objective truth, also have an interest in presenting truthful things (eg the fact that the WHO is transforming itself into a hard power system of global governance, the fact of significant numbers of pharmaceutical harms) all mixed up with palpable nonsense (the lizard people, flat earth, snake venom in the vax, drinking bleach, that sort of thing) in order to discredit those seeking to speak truth, make it harder and less comfortable for people to seek truth, and simply confuse and distract people.
So, ironically (and amusing as it was), in my opinion your comment did exactly what you were accusing Unherd of doing: increasing the noise and further burying the signal. Maybe that was your intention, or maybe not, I don’t know.
Way to miss the point Unherd, the question you ask, here and now, is noise, it is not signal (to use the cliche). You are just picking up on a couple wrong things: –
1) Everything is 100% FUBAR Now. (military acronym, fu* *ed up beyond all repair) Because these insane globalists Lizard People in office, with their Covid-19 response of destroying the economy, health, education, wealth, savings, pensions, and trust in Gov – and causing massive Inflation and interest rates rocketing
AND
2) With this insane WWIII the Lizard people, Globalists in Westminster, have created out of a Regional Conflict which was not in their interests – the world is about enter a Great Depression, Global Famine, and total realignment of world powers – and maybe a Nuke attack…
See – these Orwellian Sheep, Useful Idiots, you polled – have been convinced that without lockup, and the 6 Vaxes they had – they would be dead – And they have been made to believe the Russian Sanctions and Billions of £ borrowed and sent to Zalenski to steal, and the military sending all its hardware to Ukraine to destabilize the globe and cause a global depression and Famine – that if all that was not done – that it would mean they ‘Hate Freedom and Justice’.
The Lizard Davos Government in Westminster have destroyed UK – and made everyone think the reason they cannot afford eggs is because Brexit!
All your stupid Noise instead of signal Poll proved was the AGENDA has the sheep 100% stumped and convinced that white is black and good is bad….
As the MSM says ———–> LOOK! A BREXIT!!! (squirrel) and the sheep look and are distracted – and that is why the poll result is so stupid.