April 4, 2025 - 7:00am

The all-consuming spectacle of the US administration dismantling the global trading system has resulted in another significant piece of news going under the radar. To coincide with the visit of Benjamin Netanyahu, Hungary has declared its intention to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has a warrant out for the Israeli Prime Minister’s arrest. In many ways, though, this is of a pair with the shock-and-awe announcements Trump made in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday — a clear sign that we’ve seen the high point of the liberal rules-based international order and that the tide is on its way out.

That Hungary should leave the ICC is hardly surprising, given Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s long-running scepticism over the constraints of international law and the overreach of the organisations driving its expansion. In reality, though, almost every Western country faces the same issue of how to respond to unaccountable and remote bodies which freely impose their political framework without any concession to national interests. Is any European democracy going to dynamite its relationship with a vital strategic ally in the Middle East to placate the whims of a court acting vastly beyond its remit? Hungary’s approach is simply more honest than most.

Will other countries follow suit? Not over this, perhaps: it may be that the current conflict in Gaza is simply too divisive for leaders to have the confidence to take Hungary’s decisive stance. Likewise, there are still some governments — including Britain’s — which have not yet woken up to the reality of the new world order, or which retain a deep emotional attachment to the worldview that institutions like the ICC represent. But it seems certain that even the most fanatical adherents to institutionalist doctrines will make no real effort to enforce the ICC’s diktats. Over time, this will hollow out those same institutions, so that every overreach leads only to the further erosion of any real authority they once possessed.

Leaving aside the US, whose current aggressive reaction to perceived international constraints is rooted in a peculiarly American historical tradition and the neuroses of the Trump administration, this is how support for the postwar institutional system may collapse among other nations. Faced with a seemingly never-ending series of decisions that prioritise quixotic political campaigns and ever more expansive interpretations of their remit, while blithely ignoring vital national interests in this new and lawless world order, even the most committed institutionalists will at some point lose patience.

There may be no sudden crumbling away of the international courts, given that active departures are, for now, likely to be the exception rather than the norm. Yet, in the longer term, those institutions will have to adapt in order to take national concerns seriously. The alternative option is merely to wither away and die.


Harry Gillow is a barrister practising in public and commercial law

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