February 24, 2025 - 10:00am
In response to US President Donald Trump’s accusation that Volodymyr Zelensky is a “dictator”, the Ukrainian leader has now announced that he would be willing to give up his position “if it is for the peace of Ukraine” or if it helps earn Nato membership for his country.
This might be a courageous move, but it is also the latest sign that peace negotiations are not going in Ukraine’s favour. Zelensky initially refused to accept America’s terms for a minerals deal on the grounds that Washington’s demand for around $500 billion’s worth did not reflect, in his view, what the US had provided in aid, and there were no security guarantees attached.
However, it appears as though both countries are inching closer to a deal, with the Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk stating that Kyiv will be working in earnest to reach an agreement this week. Kyiv will likely have to accept some unfavourable terms, especially after rumours that US negotiators threatened that, unless it signs, Ukraine will be deprived of the Starlink terminals which are vital to its secure communications.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may have been trying to soothe Ukrainian concerns with his Financial Times op-ed on Saturday, which repeatedly referred to “partnership”. Yet, for all his smooth promises, it is a partnership creating a fund “where the US will have economic and governance rights in those future investments”, and where the US has such influence that it can stop “corruption and insider deals” as well as any country that did not contribute to Ukraine’s defence benefiting from it.
This week, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be making separate visits to the White House to sell Trump on a plan to deploy up to 30,000 European peacekeepers as a “reassurance force” in Ukraine post-ceasefire. The proposal would not include any US peacekeepers, but would likely require the use of US air defence systems in neighbouring countries as well as American intelligence and logistical assistance. According to the Wall Street Journal, Starmer is not intending to formally request US military assistance yet. However, the plan may well earn Trump’s approval, meeting American demands that no US troops be sent to Ukraine as part of any security guarantees.
What to make of Zelensky’s offer to fall on his sword? Perhaps the more important question is when. Resigning and calling elections now would mean all the practical difficulties of heading to the polls during war. But doing so after a ceasefire or peace agreement would mean martial law could have ended anyway. It is likely bravado on the former showman’s part, the ultimate proof that he is no dictator. What’s more, the prospect of trading his career for Ukraine’s Nato membership crosses one of the Kremlin’s red lines, setting the scene for Moscow to refuse such an arrangement and show that it — not Kyiv — is the real impediment to any deal.
Perhaps the most worrying sign for Kyiv came yesterday when Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov indicated that Moscow and Washington will follow up on last week’s bilateral talks in Riyadh, with departmental directors holding meetings at the end of this week to make “tangible progress”. While the Saudi talks could have been dismissed as sounding out Moscow or a feint to perhaps force Kyiv to sign the minerals agreement or show Trump was serious about bringing the war to a close, it seems that the US administration is serious about continuing to sideline Ukraine and pursue this avenue to end the conflict. Meanwhile, Moscow claims that preparations for a Trump-Putin meeting are underway.
With the US clearly prioritising relations with Russia over Ukrainian sovereignty and listening to Moscow’s gripes at a succession of cosy summits, any eventual peace deal is likely to favour the Kremlin. For all Zelensky’s self-sacrifice, the prospect of Nato membership remains unlikely. The Kremlin has already emphatically rejected earlier US proposals that Ukraine could accede to Nato after an interval of 20 years. EU membership, European security guarantees and European peacekeepers are all likely to form the contours of a deal, but the US will likely distance itself.
This week could prove pivotal in negotiations, and the signs are not pointing in Ukraine’s favour.
“It is likely bravado on the former showman’s part”
No, it is likely that he’s been told what to do by the American administration, and he’s playing his part dutifully, as he has from the beginning.
Let’s not pretend that he has any agency.
Not another silly simplistic comment on this conflict please! Was Zelensky a puppet under the Biden administration, Trump’s, or both? We can see obviously that Zelensky is trying to make the best of a terrible situation where he has little or no power. Which is not to day he is a saint, of course not. But just to claim he is a puppet and has always been is ridiculous. Do you
Britain has contributed £13B to Ukraine in the last 3 years. Where is our sweetheart deal?
The UK should not be offering to put troops on the ground in Ukraine as a ‘peace force’.
It’s merely window dressing and they know it, for the territory involved 30,000 men would have no influence.
Starmer and Badenoch should be backing Trump’s peace efforts 100% and be totally rejecting the EU’s proposals of a peace force in Ukraine.
Ukraine is likely to lose a significant part of its territory and economic potential. With The West receding on its security deals from after the fall of the USSR, Ukraine will now have little option but to develop, or more accurately re-develop, a nuclear option. The failure of the liberal democracies to stand up to a bully is once again moving us rapidly towards far greater danger than would have been an early determination to face up to autocracy. The UK too had better move quickly towards an independent nuclear deterrent, as the simple fact is that we cannot rely on anyone else to protect us.
There is no chance whatsoever that Russia will allow Ukraine to possess nuclear weapons.
The same was true of the Arab nations and Israel. But…
And what will Starmer do when the first Russian shell lands on a tent full of British “peacekeepers”?
What to make of Zelensky’s offer to fall on his sword?
If we were to enter the world of Alice, what would she find?
The Cheshire Cat might purr, giving all praise and respect to President Zelensky and his team, as well as to the bravery and resolve of all those who have resisted the invasion, but the cat might suggest that Zelensky’s offer to exchange himself for NATO membership is tantamount to, “I’m a hostage, get me out of here” ?
Before disappearing, the cat might add that at the very least, the offer is a shield against any attempt to depose him by factions that might not want a peace deal on whatever terms are finalised.
The Mad Hatter might explain to Alice that Trump’s harsh words about elections could be seen as a warning that any subsequent government must have democratic legitimacy. It cannot be established as a result of a putsch if it is to retain Washington’s support.
Meanwhile, Starmer offers up a bottle labelled, ‘Drink me’. And Macron, a cake labelled, ‘Eat Me’. Make him small or make him large, Trump is still Trump. Starmer proposes, Trump disposes. Meanwhile, the EU leaders continue with their tea party. Not the one in Alice but the one in The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.
Alot of this assumes Putin wants peace. That’s a fallacy. He’d welcome a ‘pause’ and especially a ‘pause’ where he’s seen as the victor to date. But he can’t afford a peace deal that actually works and enables Ukraine to survive as an independent Country, even if a bit smaller and with or without Zelensky. He also needs perpetual War now for his own security – it’s what justifies the continuance of a War economy and a War security apparatus. It’s what stops the reckoned on the c1million dead Russians and the devastating impact for so many of his own people from his actions. Like many Dictators it’s what sustains them.
The issue for the West and for Trump is – do you give him the perfect pause he wants? And then look away when he later breaks the agreement like he’s broken every other.
Trump’s ego comes into play if this reality consistently put to him – what do you want to be remembered as – a Chamberlain or a Churchill? Chamberlain would have had a chance of the 39 Nobel Peace Prize, no doubt jointly, had not events proven otherwise.
As regards whether UK should cut and run – quite apart from the devastating impact that would have on our reputation and national psyche it’d not save anything. An emboldened Putin would threaten NATO states in the Baltic, where we are obliged to help. To deter we’d need an increase in defence capability even larger and more essential because the potential biggest Army resisting Russia, Ukraine’s, would have been neutralised.
Weakness is provocation in itself.
Imagine if Putin conquered Ukraine and installed a pro-Russian leader in a massive country with a big land border with Poland.
That would be like a second Byelorussia!
Well maybe with your wisdom you go and ask the Swedes and Finns why the invasion meant they quickly requested NATO membership? On your way ask the Poles and other Baltic State folks what they think. tell them not to be concerned. Your mate Putin can be trusted and you know better than they. Good luck.
It seems like you just inadvertently admitted that Trump isn’t anything like Mussoloni or Hatler. Ooops. Gonna make it hard for you to moralise later. Do you want to amend that?
Don’t quite follow TB. I had a re-read just now and I’m sure I don’t mention Mussolini.
If you are going to have an argument with somebody, it might be a good idea to actually reference what they have actually written, rather than what you think they believe!
For example, I believe Trump has strengths weaknesses (and in the way of these things sometimes the strengths become the weaknesses and vice versa). However just just because I might think he has faults does not mean that I believe that he is new Hitler!
An excellent synopsis. Which, no doubt, is why it attracted so many down votes from the Russian trolls who lurk here.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer to resign was not a serious one.
How do you know?
Trump is determined to save Putin’s bacon. Russia is losing the war and likely can’t last much beyond 2026. Quite why Trump is so pro-Russian is a mystery although “kompromat” is a distinct possibility. According to at least two ex-KGB officers the KGB started to take an interest in him early on in his career.
Russia is not losing the war! Unfortunately in my view, but there it is. The “West” (if we can any more unblushingly use that term), would have to have provided far more concerted support to Ukraine for that have happened, rather than quibbling on every item of military support.
This would have meant probably putting its economies on a partial while footing in order to produce enough basic kit including sufficient ammunition and shells. One advantage might have been is that we would have had a good excuse to stop doing the stupid and self-defeating stuff (Net Zero!) as well at the same time. But there was probably never any chance of that.
Zelensky and his wife will be executed by Putin’s people sometime this year is my prediction. Maybe while Putin’s on a state visit to Mar-a-Lago. He and Trump could enjoy a live feed of the event together. Champagne will be flowing. Singers singing, dancers dancing. All very Godfather 2.
Personally I like Zelensky but I also know it’s woke to care about him and to root for Ukraine. And because I want to be like the majority of independent thinkers on this website I will root for Putin with all my heart. He’s my daddy!
Totally hilarious! Perhaps you are being intentionally ironic. An independent thinker “wanting to be like….” And “rooting” (no.less).for Putin’s gangster regime! Yes, as we know, independent thinking is thriving in Russia!.
Some people on the Right (not all) have become totally morally corrupted by their opposition to their home government’s internal policies, which have almost nothing to do with this conflict. I don’t think “woke” (which in any case Ukraine is not!) is a reason to cheer on the brutal annexation one country by its neighbour, or even to delight in the possible execution of its leader.
Ok ….you ARE being ironic! It is difficult to tell on here sometimes! Actually very funny!
Clown