Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend offered to abandon hopes of Nato membership in return for security guarantees from the US and other partners. The Daily Telegraph hailed the move as a “concession” and it could, on the face of it, appear to be a significant sacrifice. After all, Ukraine’s relations with the Alliance date back to its independence in 1991 and, in 2008, Nato declared that Kyiv “will become a member”. In 2023, the Alliance even offered Ukraine an accelerated, one-step joining process without the usual Membership Action Plan, with its website still proclaiming that “Ukraine’s future is in Nato”.

Yet, Zelensky’s proposal is less a compromise and more an acknowledgment of geopolitical reality. Ukraine, quite simply, was never going to join the Alliance. For all the grand declarations, the doors were never truly open, with members slow-walking the process. Their promise to “extend an invitation when allies agree and conditions are met” was the diplomatic equivalent of “don’t call us, we’ll call you”.

There are, first and foremost, the technical difficulties associated with an alliance based around collective defense permitting a country at war, or with a frozen conflict on its territory, potentially dragging members into that conflict. Then there are Russia’s objections to consider. Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly referred to Nato’s eastwards expansion — “approaching our very border” — when striving to explain the invasion.

Yet, Moscow is not the only one with qualms. Budapest and Bratislava’s populist leaders have spoken out forcefully against Kyiv’s accession, with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico calling the idea “a guarantee of World War III”. US President Donald Trump has urged Ukraine to “forget about” it as “that’s probably the reason the whole thing started”, while his latest National Security Strategy rejected “a perpetually expanding Alliance”.

Even a future US president unburdened by Trump’s fraught history with Kyiv would still tread carefully. The Biden administration was cautious for fear of antagonizing Moscow and due to concerns about corruption in Ukraine and its lack of transparency in defense procurement. Even among countries that publicly backed Ukraine’s bid, there were reports of private misgivings, notably in Spain, Belgium and Slovenia.

Such hesitation is hardly surprising, given the very real risk of sparking a wider war. Alliance members face the difficult calculation of whether Kyiv’s accession would be sufficient to deter Putin from once more breaching the country’s borders. This would be a nerve-wracking prospect at the best of times, let alone at a moment when the commitment of America’s leader to the Alliance is in doubt and Russia is re-arming, with Secretary-General Mark Rutte warning Moscow could attack within five years.

The Ukrainian leader must have known his ambitions were bordering on impossible. Nevertheless, he is now attempting to use this “concession” as a bargaining chip for US security guarantees. It’s good work if you can get it, sacrificing something you were never going to get in exchange for something you want.

The difficulty is overcoming the White House’s reluctance. A leaked phone call this month revealed European leaders’ angst that the US wants Ukraine to surrender land but will not offer clarity on security guarantees. Even plans drawn up by European leaders on their own contributions have been unable to prod Washington into specifying what it would provide.

Trump and Putin will immediately see Zelensky’s concession as the empty gesture it is and will be no more eager to negotiate. Moscow is refusing to engage, although for all its intransigence over Nato, the Kremlin has repeatedly signaled that it would have no issue with Kyiv joining the EU and reports have emerged that Ukraine could do so at the start of 2027. As European leaders gather in Berlin later today, Zelensky knows that a safe and sovereign Ukrainian future will not be guaranteed by Nato, but by Europe.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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