On Monday, Nato kicked off its regular annual two-week nuclear drill, “Steadfast Noon”. It will include more than 60 aircraft from 13 countries and more than 2,000 personnel, in a bid to show the alliance’s preparedness.
In defence of the drill, Linas Linkevicius, the Lithuanian ambassador to Sweden, called it “a message to the greatest geopolitical maniac of the century.” He warned that Putin’s “nuclear bluff can and will have costs and consequences”.
If Putin really is a maniac who is ready to use nuclear force at a moment’s notice, why would a regular annual Nato drill deter him from escalation? And if on the other hand he is not a maniac and is just bluffing, then what “costs and consequences” can Nato inflict on Russia for its bluff? A drill certainly won’t inflict any.
Linkevicius’s comments provide a good illustration of the incessant tendency of Western diplomats to have their cake and eat it. Putin is simultaneously an irrational maniac who will cause a nuclear war at any moment and a leader who “bluffs” about responding harshly if certain Russian red lines are crossed. Putin is such a maniac that if not defeated in Ukraine he will go on to attack Nato and the Baltic states, probably causing a nuclear war. And yet he is such a feeble bluffer that he will not react if Nato sets out to defeat Russia in Ukraine. European diplomats can’t decide whether Putin will take action or not.
The truth is that there is only one scenario, other than a direct attack on or blockade of Russian territory, that would bring Russia to — or over — the brink of using a nuclear weapon: the prospect of outright defeat in Ukraine, which is unlikely.
As CIA Director William Burns has revealed, the only time that his agency was really worried about Kremlin nuclear escalation was in the autumn of 2022, when Russian forces had been driven out of Kharkiv and were in danger of being surrounded and crushed in Kherson. Really, though, Putin did not escalate but ordered a tactical retreat from Kherson.
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SubscribeMost of the West’s “leaders” seem to think that personal insults constitute “firmness of purpose”. However it merely demonstrates limited intelligence…and presumably appeals to those they wish to impress.
A nuclear war is only really on the table if one side demonstrates weakness in the lead-up.An incompetent parent says No!….. If you do it again I’ll….. I said to stop….. I told you no and this is your last warning…. I give up! It’s exactly the same principle with international relations: the way to treat recalcitrant children and states is to draw a line and them firmly stick to it.
Or just speak rationally and sensibly to the child.