July 16, 2024 - 3:55pm

So farewell then, Vaughan Gething. Just four months to the day after taking office as First Minister of Wales, the Labour leader has resigned.

Gething’s downfall shares striking similarities with that of Humza Yousaf — beyond the much commented-upon fact that they were each the first ethnic-minority leader of their respective countries, and the brevity of their tenures.

Like his Scottish counterpart, Gething took over from a very successful predecessor. Mark Drakeford might not have brought Welsh Labour to the dizzying heights to which Nicola Sturgeon took the SNP, but he managed to maintain its position as Wales’s default party despite a woeful record on key issues such as education and health, which is a political achievement if nothing else.

Moreover, like Yousaf, Gething was in no small part responsible for his own downfall. Each inherited a government dependent on a smaller party in its devolved parliament, and each alienated that party. Here, the Welsh leader probably deserves more of the blame. Yousaf’s handling of the Scottish Greens was clumsy, but internal pressure to scrap the Bute House Agreement was mounting, and with the SNP falling in the polls their cosy electoral pact was probably doomed anyway.

Plaid Cymru, on the other hand, walked out of their agreement in May over the sacking of Hannah Blythyn, formerly the Welsh Government’s minister for social partnership, whom Gething accused of leaking texts in which he, as health minister, said he was deleting messages during the Covid-19 pandemic.

When one is strong, such ruthlessness — used with good judgement — can enhance that strength. When one is weak, such heavy-handedness only alienates colleagues. And Gething was weak: his leadership campaign was dogged by the story of his taking large donations from a convicted polluter, as well as allegations of old-fashioned trade union stitch-ups against his opponent, Jeremy Miles.

The First Minister has been on notice since losing a vote of no confidence in the Senedd last month after two Labour MSs failed to vote, despite full provision for remote voting. He clearly failed to stabilise his position. The question is: what next?

Miles, as the runner-up in the last contest, must be considered the frontrunner now. This is unfortunate: as education minister, it was notable how he avoided any mention of the Welsh Government’s dire school performance record during his leadership bid. If Welsh Labour can’t produce anyone better, that is a damning indictment.

There is also chatter about an early election, although this is probably overhyped; unlike in Westminster, the first minister has no power to dissolve the Senedd, and it would require a two-thirds vote among MSs.

But Wales needs a leader who’ll do more than patch things up with the nationalists and continue down the path set by Drakeford, neglecting crucial responsibilities while focusing instead on trivial policies such as banning free drinks refills.

Labour’s very strong general election result in Wales should not foster complacency. We are seeing in Scotland how a hegemonic party can seem invincible right up until it isn’t — and at Westminster how quickly a big majority can disappear.


Henry Hill is Deputy Editor of ConservativeHome.

HCH_Hill