In the past, Fico portrayed himself in the mould of a traditional social democrat. In the European Parliament, Smer is a member of the often aggressively pro-integrationist Socialists and Democrats group. But Fico has changed that. After resigning as prime minister in 2018 amid a major scandal following the murder of a journalist, he switched up his image, reinventing himself as a persecuted populist firebrand giving voice to the voiceless.  

This resurrection was made possible by the series of global crises in recent years. Covid lockdowns and vaccine policies destroyed the faith of many Slovaks in accepted popular narratives. Then came the Ukraine war, and this deep mistrust found a new focus. Fico has ridden a wave of anti-Western, Ukraine-sceptic feeling, promising not to send “a single bullet” to Kyiv and bemoaning the labelling of anyone with a different opinion on the war as “pro-Russian”.  

As Bratislava has effectively exhausted its available military supplies, this attitude won’t be a game changer for Kyiv. But Fico’s argument against arming Ukraine “because prolonging the conflict only leads to unnecessary and enormous loss of human life” provides validation for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s claim that ordinary Europeans want peace, rather than escalating support for a brutal conflict. As leader, Fico would likely join Orbán in obstructing EU proposals on Ukraine as one of the few ways in which he can put his Slovak nationalist agenda to real effect — so it’s no surprise that the Hungarian PM greeted Smer’s victory with glee.

Although Fico’s Euroscepticism will provoke a shudder of collective horror in Brussels, Slovakia needs the EU, and euro membership gives it little room to diverge significantly from the rest of the bloc. Still, Fico’s win — and the proportion of conservative, nationalist parties in the new parliament — remains significant.

Unsurprisingly, the result has elicited strong reactions. “Robert Fico defeated Slovakia. He has defeated the version of the country that the majority of the nation imagined after the Velvet Revolution,” lamented one newspaper editor. Another editor comforted readers that “Fico will not be strong enough to shut everything down and ban writing, singing, dancing and dreaming.”

Hostility to the written word and music was not part of Fico’s offer to voters this time around, nor was it high on the agenda during his previous periods in office. Nonetheless, once the tricky business of forming a coalition is complete, the Slovak election could indeed prove to be a watershed moment for Europe, as a rejection of the West’s long-term political and ideological trajectory.