July 14, 2024 - 2:15pm

At a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, last night, a would-be assassin — later identified by the FBI as Thomas Matthew Crooks — fired several shots at former president Donald Trump, hitting him in the ear and killing another attendee. In a few short hours, the event has caused major political ripples, with Republicans quick to use the inevitable rally-round-the-flag effect to boost support for Trump ahead of this week’s Republican convention in Milwaukee. For their part, Democratic leadership from President Joe Biden down condemned the violence and toned down their criticism of Trump, though there is also private acknowledgment in the party that this will complicate their ability to make the case against the GOP’s presumptive nominee, who will undoubtedly be the beneficiary of public sympathy.

The history of failed assassination attempts on American presidents and presidential candidates would suggest as much. In 1981, the newly-elected Ronald Reagan suffered a far more serious injury at the hands of John Hinckley, who managed to lodge a bullet in the President’s chest which narrowly missed his heart. Reagan’s grace and good humour as doctors operated on him further endeared him to the public and created the hospitable political atmosphere that pushed the Democratic-controlled Congress to pass his tax cut.

Yet the tone and tenor of political exchange in the early Eighties was vastly different: appearing to be too partisan — much less directly attributing violence to one’s political adversaries — was then out of the question for leaders in both parties. Today, those guardrails insulating the political process have all but come off.

Some of Trump’s most vocal supporters, including Senator J.D. Vance and Representative Lauren Boebert, are not mincing their words in explicitly connecting the incident to the Democrats and to Biden personally. Meanwhile, Democratic-aligned voices on social media have taken to using the event to talk about pet causes such as gun control, or have expressed glee that Crooks appears to be both a registered Republican and a fan of a Right-coded online firearms lifestyle group known as “Demolition Ranch”.

More historically distant examples of failed attempts include Theodore Roosevelt, who after being struck by an assailant’s bullet during the 1912 campaign simply carried on with his speech in a gesture of defiance that impressed the public, not unlike Trump raising his fist in the instantly iconic photo taken moments after the attack. Andrew Jackson, another populist president who roused extreme passions, was saved from murder in 1835 by a malfunctioning pistol.

Once again, however, the changed atmosphere of politics in a hyperactive digital media environment makes Trump’s brush with martyrdom far more complicated in its broader effects than Roosevelt’s or Jackson’s might have been. In particular, the saturation in conspiratorial thinking since then — galvanised by the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963 — will almost certainly ensure that Americans of all persuasions will cling to speculative theories about what actually took place.

Already, social media is abuzz with allegations and insinuations of — depending on how one interprets it — either a botched deep-state inside job against Trump or an elaborate set-up to induce sympathy votes for the Republican candidate. Worse is the suggestion of a false-flag “Reichstag fire”-style operation to pave the way for Trumpian autocracy, conforming with recent chatter over Project 2025.

This all indicates that many Americans will not be content with the explanation that a lone gunman did it. For a population primed to think in terms of sinister plots and cabals, there can be no such thing as coincidences or one-off-events. What is certain is that the shots fired by Crooks will reverberate for years to come.


Michael Cuenco is a writer on policy and politics. He is Associate Editor at American Affairs.
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