Yesterday, a high-profile Russian general was shot several times and severely wounded in Moscow. We still do not know who did it or the exact circumstances surrounding the attack. We do not even know if  Vladimir ‍Alekseyev will survive, amid reports that he remains in a critical condition. Yet the uncertainty around the incident did not stop Moscow swiftly pinning the blame on Ukraine, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accusing Kyiv of engaging in “constant provocations”.

From the Kremlin’s perspective, the timing could not be more propitious. As Moscow looks for reasons to drag its feet on ongoing negotiations, the attempt on Alekseyev’s life offers a ready-made pretext to not only step back from talks but also shift the responsibility onto the other side. Naturally, Lavrov said Kyiv was “derailing the negotiation process”.

To be fair to him, Ukraine does have a long history of targeted assassinations and has made no secret of its desire to take the war to Moscow. Such killings allow Kyiv to project an image of success to its population and allies — even as Russia moves slowly forward on the battlefield. It is also Ukraine’s way of sowing discord within Russia’s defense establishment.

There is, too, the more visceral motive of vengeance. In this context, Alekseyev was the ideal target. He helped provide intelligence for missile strikes against Ukraine, supervised Wagner mercenaries and organized sham referendums in the occupied territories. Ukrainian military officer Denys Prokopenko has demanded that Alekseyev “never sleep peacefully again” even if he does survive.

However, if Kyiv did stage the attack, it could backfire. US President Donald Trump would be angered by Ukraine’s desire for retribution against one man giving Russia a reason to walk away from talks just as there were reports of “productive” discussions. The American leader was initially receptive to Moscow’s highly dubious claims of a Ukrainian attack on the Russian President’s residence last year, saying he was “very angry” about it.

Given the potential impact on negotiations and Russia’s well-documented taste for “false flag” operations, could the hit have been staged by Moscow itself? Unlikely, since it would not want the embarrassment of Ukraine having seemingly penetrated its defenses again to target someone senior. Yet the response from Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov was peculiar, stressing that “military leaders and high-ranking specialists are at risk during wartime. It’s not the Kremlin’s job to figure out how to ensure their safety.”

If it isn’t, then it should be. Putin — “formerly” of the KGB — has traditionally taken great pains to shield intelligence officers as a way to secure their loyalty in the field. Peskov’s apparent nonchalance reads as glib and holds clear dangers, potentially reducing Russian generals’ trust in the leadership. The country’s military bloggers have already complained of “traitors” selling generals’ addresses, while there has been crowing from Ukraine about “a total collapse of Russia’s security services” and Moscow’s generals being “in danger 24/7”.

Ukrainian officials have tried to distance themselves from this shooting, as speculation grows that it may instead have stemmed from internal conflicts within Russia’s defense establishment or from Alekseyev’s role in suppressing the 2023 Wagner mutiny. In light of that, Peskov’s statement may signal that the Kremlin will not intervene to protect generals in their own domestic disputes and from rivals of their own making. In any case, given Alekseyev’s alleged involvement in the hacking of the 2016 US election, the 2018 Salisbury poisoning and Russia’s military intervention in Syria, he was hardly short of enemies.

Still, no matter who was behind this attack, Lavrov’s remarks show the approach Moscow will take — blaming Ukraine and using that as an excuse for negotiations faltering. Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians as “retribution” are likely to follow. Regardless of who pulled the trigger, it is Kyiv that will pay the price.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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