The already murky RAF Fairford case, involving suspected terrorism and Anglo-American spats over bailing the alleged plotters, has grown murkier. Now, the Americans have withdrawn 12 B-1 bomber aircraft from the Gloucestershire air base, citing “force protection” concerns. Briefings on both sides of the Atlantic have suggested this demonstrates a lack of faith in UK security arrangements, providing more evidence of a deteriorating “Special Relationship.” A sleepy West Country RAF base is now the focus of international intrigue, one involving espionage, terrorism, diplomacy and the Iranian regime.

What, then, is really going on? A source who worked closely with the Americans in a UK security role suggested the affair presents a troubling smorgasbord of issues, clouded by the US President’s unpredictability. “It’s Trump being Trump,” he said. “It’s manic messaging. It could be a routine redeployment, but timed to be big news.” After all, RAF Fairford is a forward operating base for the US Air Force, not a permanent dedicated bomber station. It’s highly convenient for Washington, but not critically so. Should they have to, the Americans have the capability to fly long-range bombing sorties from the US mainland.

Sunday’s bomber redeployment therefore appears logical and even routine. Yet US sources cited security concerns as the reason for evacuating aircraft over the weekend. Given how easily military aircraft can be tracked, even via a simple app, it is plausible the US might seek to muddy the water by offering a variety of explanations for shuffling military assets around.

What is less understandable, though, is disguising this with a pointed snub to a key strategic ally such as Britain. It speaks to how figures in the Trump administration have become increasingly UK-skeptic. Significantly, though, more strident MAGA figures — notably the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth — have so far kept their powder dry. Nonetheless, the Iran war has clearly rankled the US and Israel, with Benjamin Netanyahu claiming intelligence-sharing on the Fairford incident was rewarded by Labour announcing sanctions on Israeli business linked to settler disputes in the West Bank. Indeed, Bibi fumed that Britain was reacting like a “rogue state”.

Military strategy and diplomacy aside, this leaves another simmering issue: what exactly occurred at RAF Fairford? The lack of clarity and unusual bailing decisions might suggest the “fog of war” is concealing either a cock-up or skulduggery, almost certainly involving the intelligence agencies. We are still yet to discover whether the Fairford plotters were identified via intelligence work or due to the vigilance of a local farmer. There is not yet a cogent narrative for bailing members of what is, after all, rumored to be a cell of foreign-sponsored agents.

The highly complex operation cited by senior police officers smacks strongly of a holding pattern. Traditionally, UK counterterrorism policing is well-resourced and effective, working smoothly with its counterparts in MI5. It also enjoys excellent intelligence liaison with overseas partners, especially the Americans. This is why the Fairford case represents a genuine mystery — one of intelligence, security and international power-politics. In my experience, these are seldom a happy mix, with Government figures often whispering into senior officers’ ears. America also likes to call the shots, often to the disgruntlement of its UK “partners”.

Defense, intelligence and security matters have always been laced with politics. That the current prime minister seems broadly disinterested in such matters, focused on domestic affairs and winning an election, only complicates the issue. The UK’s deteriorating relationship with America and Israel might be popular at Labour’s conference, or on the streets of Muslim constituencies in the North West of England, but cuts little ice in the international arena. Andy Burnham might not be interested in the Iran war, but the Iran war, and its protagonists, are interested in him. How he reacts in this case will have consequences beyond his cozy world of Manchester, bus fares and care services.