February 14, 2025 - 7:00am
Europe’s political and security elites are flocking to the Munich Security Conference to witness their American security umbrella being folded up and packed away. On Thursday morning, a car reportedly driven by an Afghan asylum seeker rammed into a group of trade union protestors injuring almost 30 people. This apparent terrorist attack underlines the continent’s existential problem: it is ruled by people who cannot ensure its safety, within or without its borders.
On the diplomatic front, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s declaration that “returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective” to be abandoned was merely an acceptance of objective reality. Following the failure of its 2023 counteroffensive, the Ukrainian war effort has been a slow retreat across the front, punctuated by attention-grabbing but pointless side-quests, grinding the country’s army and morale to the brink of collapse. A painful peace settlement was guaranteed, whoever won the US election.
The broader shock for European leaders, if shock is the correct word for a warning which has been repeatedly given and ignored, was Hegseth’s announcement that henceforth Europe’s security is in European hands. The aim of Hegseth’s speech, as he put it, was “to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.” He went on: “The United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.” It will instead push Europeans to “take ownership of conventional security on the continent”.
As the historian Vladislav Zubok (whose masterwork on the collapse of the Soviet Union displays striking resonances with the current moment) observes: “Trump’s great Eurasian foreign policy transformation has been launched today. We may see order-shattering changes soon and fast.” Against their will, and with much wailing and breast-beating, Europe’s leaders are being dragged to their own independence.
The specifics of this are unclear: does taking ownership of conventional security mean the withdrawal of US ground forces from eastern and central Europe? Apart from Ukraine, whose borders and future will now be decided not only above their own heads but above those of Europe as a whole, the hardest hit will be Poland and the Baltic countries, who consistently mocked Emmanuel Macron’s efforts at establishing European strategic autonomy in the belief that America’s protective shield will never be withdrawn.
Belatedly, the Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski has declared that “Europe must have autonomous military capabilities that should be developed using EU funding and industry.” The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas insists in a statement signed by Britain that “in any negotiation, Europe must have a central role.” The statement is also committed to Ukraine’s “territorial integrity,” a stance that, given the continent’s willed weakness, has rightly been termed “delusional.” On Wednesday, US Vice President JD Vance pointedly referred to Kallas as “Estonia’s former Prime Minister”, rather using her current title: for the great imperial powers, the EU may as well not exist.
For even the most hawkish European states, the role of patrolling the post-ceasefire frontlines in Ukraine is a non-starter. As the Polish strategic analyst Slawomir Dębski, a notable Ukraine hawk, correctly observes, “there is nothing realistic about expecting Europeans to stabilise an agreement with Russia by deploying their own soldiers to Ukraine when Moscow has no intention of keeping its word. That is pure fantasy.” Hegseth has made clear that any European troops will not be joined by US troops as Ukraine will not be part of Nato, and will not come under the Article 5 defensive umbrella.
The apparent Trump administration idea that the Ukraine problem can be palmed off to Britain may finally force Whitehall into measuring its bellicose strategic posture against its slender capabilities. Nevertheless, a troop deployment ought to be firmly resisted. The British Army cannot function except as an American auxiliary, and without the certainty of US support in the eventuality that Russia shells a British base or ambushes a patrol along the contact line, such a deployment is simply far beyond our denuded ability. As the analyst Anatol Lieven dismissively remarks on the Defence Secretary John Healey’s claim that Britain is “stepping up” to the role: “If any British official, politician, analyst, or journalist actually believes that this is a viable policy, they are criminal lunatics.”
Europe’s leaders were given plenty of warnings and plenty of chances to seize control of the continent’s own future. They failed, dangerously mismanaging Europe’s affairs, happy to prolong their role as pliant regional managers of a retreating American empire. It is intolerable, then, that any of the failed securocrats gathering in Munich to hear the axe fall inside the conference centre and the sirens wailing outside can long remain in charge of our destiny.
In Europe, and particularly in Britain, we have been saddled with a social contract which has collapsed, supporting a political system no one believes in, shielded by a security umbrella currently being removed. For our civilization’s survival, everything must change.
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SubscribeGreat to to see the EU “leaders” so miffed about the US taking a strong lead without consulting them. It just exposes the realpolitik of their arrogance, weakness and ineffectiveness for all to see. The EU “leaders” should prioritise starting to “get their sh*t together” instead of winging like toddlers.
Oh, SO much whinging right now. Accusations of appeasement à la 1930s abound in the media today. I don’t understand how there can be such a comprehensive, continent-wide denial of own responsibility and failure. I don’t have any time for it.
With the loudest whinging about the USA peace broking coming from Germany, a country that has repeatedly delayed the sending of aid and weapons to Ukraine. Without the USA and with only the support of Europe there’d be no independent Ukraine for Europeans to get huffy about.
Very true. This is why the very idea of the USE makes me shudder.
such co*k wombles could never unite – mental age of schturmer, macron and scholz combined is about 5!
They are all the same height! What explains this?
Factory standard?
Can’t help thinking that Trump has the video clip of the German delegation at the UNGA in 2018 openly laughing at him for pointing out that reliance on Russian oil & gas might be a security risk on repeat.Schadenfreude indeed!!!
Good point. Arrogant Europeans laughing at Americans plays very poorly in the USA and not only to Trump but to his constituencies
I expect Putin would know how to deal with the SDP/Labor curated terrorists – UK and Germany would be better off under Putin – sad but true – UK/FRD would take generations to remove the anti – white hysteria that infects their ruling elites – all of whom are, well, white!
🙂
He who laughs last laughs best. — Old Saying.
once again – n**i punks joderse
You can be sure he remembers it now..
same old square heads – hand them over to Putin – unfinished business there.
The conference log is almost a replica of Chamberlain’s famous ‘peace in our time’. Europe, including UK, seems to have an innate ability to run towards a cliff edge with eyes tight shut.
Chamberlain is getting the blame that belongs to Baldwin and Asquith. Neither lifted a finger to rebuild the British military for the simple reason the country had gone pacifist after the great slaughter of the flower of its youth in WWI. Trying to strength its defenses would have meant political suicide. Appeasement gave Chamberlain barely enough time to create an air force that staved off almost certain defeat.
Chamberlain got a bum wrap.
He took it on the chin and prepared for the inevitable. Exactly like we have to do now.
Winston Churchill said much the same thing — that Neville Chamberlain, perhaps unintentionally, bought some needed time. If Britain had gone to war with Germany at that time, Britain might well have been invaded and occupied.
I don’t recall laying the blame for Britain’s unpreparedness at Chamberlain’s feet.
Europe had other use for its money than flinging it away on defense.
ikr – look at them – 3 rats chortling about how much money they’ve made off their subjects. Payback is well overdue for these dirt bags.
I don’t know why I’m feeling so gratified and excited about current events – it could all go horribly, horribly wrong.
I think I’m just quite galvanised by the idea that this might be the push which drives the total reform (or maybe just the collapse) that the EU and many of its member states have needed for a long, long time to allow something new and future-fit to emerge but which couldn’t be achieved through conventional, incremental and – I dare say it – democratic means. Good things can come of this.
(Did I just wish for a revolution?)
Agree completely. One concern is that the EU Commission will use this as a welcome excuse to accelerate the establishment of the “EU Army”. If this happens – alongside their Euro membership – then some great European countries will be well on the way to becoming distant memories.
Frankly I don’t think I’d mind that too much. I used to be dead against anything that looked like the United States of Europe but times change and needs must.
You can’t just close your eyes and when you open them Europe has become a country. It just isn’t a country. The USA was relatively empty of Westerners when it became a country – and it is still struggling to find common plans, with a massive difference between west and east.
More accurately, between the coastal states and the rest of the country.
They just need a constirurion. Giscard scuppered the last attempt in 2005.
The interesting point is that Trump has made clear that Article 5 of the NATO Treaty doesn’t apply with regard to Western military action in support of Ukraine.
Of course it never has committed any NATO member to take military action if there is an attack on another member. It merely commits them to take such action as they consider appropriate.
The false assumption by the members was that the USA would use military action up to and including the use of nuclear weapons. That was never going to happen. As DeGaulle said “no American President will risk New York for the sake of Lyons”.
We will see what European leaders will risk for the sake of Ukraine. But their cards are low value and the cash to play with even lower.
That would be the Lyon ruled by Klaus Barbie. Unless and until France, the low countries and Eire can accept their complicity with the 3rd reich they will always be known collaborators. Why would Trump, any US citizens and particularly the Jewish diaspora in USA give 2 Fs ? Also note Italy Spain and Portugal were reich adjacent – not active collaborators like the french, dutch belges etc
I think Italy was a bit more than “Reich adjacent.”
Any spare change Germany might have must go to support the ungrateful hordes Angela welcomed into Europe.
You are an interesting case, if we compare with history, the followers of the various Fascists gloried in the destruction of the old decadent society and looked forward to be ruled by their own strong and virile leaders to achieve a glorious future for their nations. You glory in the destruction of the society you live in and look forward to a future of being ruled by strong and capricious foreign tyrants who will see you and yours merely as a resource to exploit. Be honest: are you really expecting that something great will grow from the ruins, in spite of everything the great powers will do to prevent it? Or are you just gleefully enjoying the destruction?
I don’t expect it, because you can’t. But destruction can be creative – and this is what Europe desperately needs. How long have we spent now trying to deny that this sort of rebirth was going to happen? 25 years? The Yanks have just given us a shot of oxytocin to get things going.
Re: gleeful enjoyment. Maybe not the destruction, although that is exciting because it means new chances and opportunities in spite of the scariness. But mostly I like watching people fall out of cloud cuckoo land.
It’s the cuckoos, firmly in the nest, that tend to see the other birds falling.
And right on cue is the cry “Fascist.” No hubris here.. You are the enlightened ones that can see Fascists on the march and the peasants gleefully falling in line for their Strong leader….utter rubbish. Someone making decisive change from the Davos inspired nonsense of the western leaders is shaking things up with an eye towards progress. time will tell if it’s a forward progress or not
It’s the broken windows theory. As two authors put it in the recent Unherd piece to explain the condition of Birmingham’s poor, crime-ridden areas. Nothing to do with fascism.
The only strong leaders in those areas are the gang leaders and their enforcers. And nothing is going to grow from the hell-spawned needle and condom-strewn ruins of the Edwardian ornamental parks; nor from the avenues of villas, now decayed in multiple occupancy, their civilised elegance an unquiet ghost that appears in their facades to rebuke passers-by.
Britain has enough chastening history not to want strong leaders of her own. The Puritan revolution swept through the churches ‘like a boiling tide though sea caves’. Yet Cromwell, a man of the establishment like Farage, was only a strong leader according to the scriptwriters of the 1970 film. A consoling piece of theatre.
When all else is failing – and all is failing for the Tories and Labour – there’s always war.
It’s high time for total reform, and I feel the same, gratified and excited. And yes,it could go pear shaped… All the EU commission has been able to do over the past year is to unite the entire population against it with the ridiculous innovation of bottle and carton caps attached with plastic to the container. That’s about as far as their thinking can the go.
David Eades
John Healey’s statement really was lol funny.
At first though I was utterly incredulous that the Defence Secretary of a country mired in debt, lacking meaningful direction, and unable to ensure the safety of its citizens on its streets could make such a speech with a straight face. I suppose that was quite impressive.
Regrettably it is likely that he, and the other children, believe the nonsense they spout and will act accordingly leading to utter disaster for their countries and people.
To misquote the idiot Merkel “Europe can(not) do it!”
The idea that saying something makes it so is shot through this government: perhaps its the logical endpoint of the Blair/Campbell doctrine that if one controls the narrative, one controls politics. “We are focussed on growth” (the budget was self-evidently growth-suppressing); “We will achieve net zero by 2030” (obviously we won’t); “Our army will step up” (we can barely deploy a division).
It’s a modern curse and comes from hubris ie the will can trump reality. You hear it all the time, in every facet of public life. ‘We must ensure all children can fulfill their full potential’, ‘Learn lessons and focus on integration by spending more money (after another multi culti failure)’, ‘Create thousands of cutting-edge Green jobs (when we can’t make anything)’, ‘Ensure the prosperity that Britain deserves (while objectively we deserve nothing and the govt/state is doing nothing to that end)’.
People use this declarative style all the time on a personal level too – perhaps the result of bureaucratic/corporate/bullshit jobs that prioritise talking/creating docs which tick boxes over actually making/doing anything.
The Royal Navy is often able to keep its warships going beyond the Isle of Man.
Aris is right. For our civilization’s survival, everything must change. But precisely because of the social contract, the political system, and lack of our own security umbrella, everything is about to change and still end our civilisation.
The welfare benefits of the social contract attracts the poorest, most dependent immigrants. The hunger for votes means the political system encourages the poorest, most dependent immigrants. And our judiciary, police, and military are institutionally unwilling to slightly close ultra porous borders.
All civilisations have cities and complex states. So at the most fundamental level, one civilisation is differentiated from another by its people and culture. It is inarguable that mass immigration and multiculturalism change this differentiation. Quite literally the end of European civilisation comes when European people and European culture are replaced. Which is exactly what is happening with even mainstream leftist politicians like France’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon now happy to celebrate the great replacement. To quote him “Yes, Mr (Eric) Zemmour, there is a Great Replacement!” A civilisational replacement.
The demographic seed has been sown. Politics may be downstream from culture, but culture is downstream from people. And the people are changing.
I think today that Culture is downstream from Politics and People are downstream from Culture. In other words, the elected politicians are forcing the culture on the people. Probably, this has always been the case but remember that democracy in Europe is really a recent arrival. Before democracy the landed élite and gentry forced the culture on the people to protect their own (the élite’s) interests.
Today, politicians are reading about ‘systems’ of governance, getting together and saying, “This is what we must impose on the people because the people are too stupid to know what is good for them.” OK, but try the education of the people first.
Melencono is a national socialist collaborator. Any true Moslem, Christian or Jew would want to see him hang. He is using TCNs as a proxy – so he is not only a collaborator but a proud and vengeful terrorist.
I would love to either agree or disagree with you but nothing you have written on this subject makes enough sense for me to do either.
Another example of how we have gone badly wrong. This article is about our politicians going to Munich for a conference/jolly/photo opportunity. UnHerd has filed it under “Politics”.
Yesterday we had an article about the violence in Small Heath, Birmingham, which the politicians are ignoring because it is not sufficiently sexy. UnHerd filed the Small Heath article under “Society”. This implies that the problems in Europe more important than our “boring, local, tedious” problems in Small Heath. My point was that if all of the politicians spent a few days in Small Heath, with the same barrage of publicity as we will have in Munich, then we will be able to focus on more important things than mere photo-opportunities.
“it is ruled by people who cannot ensure its safety, within or without its borders.”
Cannot, or “choose not to”?
Hanlon’s Razor isn’t a good fit for our times.
I’m hoping its the begiining of deportation culture to counterbalance mass immigration ideology in Europe.
Watching a recent two-part documentary on the Balkans by Katya Adler (who cut her journalistic teeth covering the Balkan conflicts in the 90s) was an eye-opener.
Whilst some countries are EU members and others aspire to be, there was a general view among many she interviewed that their future lay with powers from the East. Putin was viewed favourably.
The potential for further conflict was very apparent, with ethnic tensions unabated, paramilitary raids taking place across borders (largely unreported) and Muslim/Christian splits thrown into the.mix.
The EU has ignored all of this, hoping it’ll go away. Europe’s “back door” is ready to be flung open.
Some political parties are banned from the Munich Security Conference.
You can’t tackle a despot like Putin without banning some political parties….
President Trump is the Kissinger of our time. He is a real world politician unlike the fantasy land crew in the UK and Europe. He sees a problem and acts decisively and swiftly.
The Germans, British and French governments are unable to protect their own citizens from terrorism or secure their respective borders.
They see a problem and form a committee of enquiry. They are so out of touch with the polis.
There is enough grim comedy in all this to provide the late comic genius Ken Dodd with enough material for a whole season’s worth of his legendary five-hour live shows.
“If any British official, politician, analyst, or journalist actually believes that this (Britain ‘steeping up to the plate’) is a viable policy, they are criminal lunatics.”
There were some criminal lunatics in the cabinet and the print media in 1914. Unlike those of today they did have some excuse in that they really did have a lot of wealth to squander.
NATO’s secretary general wants Britain to ‘break the bank’ for Ukraine. This worthy needs to be informed that Britain is already broken. And not by the Russians.
If the UK’s defence secretary wants the UK to be ready for war with Russia, by all means let him try to conscript Gen Z into some sort of rainbow fighting formation. No nostrums about blunting bayonets need be applied.
The BBC’s doughty correspondent asserts that any peace deal without Ukraine would be a dirty deal. He must know that all peace deals are dirty. There could be no filthier one than that agreed by Churchill and Roosevelt with Stalin in 1945.
For the last thirty years, the US has diligently incubated brainless transatlanticists and manoeuvred them into government positions (viz. Annalena Baerbock, Kaja Kallas, etc.).
Throughout that period, the US has loudly trumpeted its displeasure about the fecklessness of Europeans, but any European move for more strategic autonomy was met by an opposite and equally forceful suppression of any genuine autonomy, by US Neocons and their European plants.
So the host sloughing off the parasites it had so carefully nurtured over decades is an existential shock to our European “leaders”. They are wholly dependent on the Neocon atlanticist safety net of NGOs, think tanks and foundations to provide them with sustenance and assisted thinking.
Europe cannot recover until we’re rid of this passel of rogues.
Well said.
For our civilization’s survival, everything must change.
Look, i like a laugh, i like a joke – its not my fault my sense of humor’s broke: Korashani terrorist kills/injures leftist demonstrators. O me toca jajaja. If white leftists achieve the totalitarian regime they seek they can only do so with islamist muscle. They will fall out, obvs, and then what will “queers for palestine” and “trans llamas for ISIS” do? One cross each -? or choose a building, antennae, span or earth to be dropped from a great hight. TBH leftist and islamist homophobia is vile – but the leftist version far worse IMO as they are straight ppl pretending to be queer. Opposite of islamists – gay ppl pretending to be straight.
This is very well done. I’m glad to see Aris Roussinos is lifting his boots from the sucking grip of academic jargon. He moves much faster.
Hard love is still love.
Might not fell like it right now.
Preparing to protect ourselves is now required.
Conveniently there are legions of government workers who can be reimagined as front line infantry with no bad effect on productivity.
We must concentrate on the silver linings.
Similar to kicking your ner-do-well son out to fend for himself as opposed to let him live rent-free in you basement until he’s 40.
Or 50 when he decides to put the pillow on your face until you quit moving.
While we wait for everything to change, the Light Brigade must deploy.
Half a league. Half a league. Half a league onward.
Now that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine is in sight, I’m curious to see how this all turns out. Here’s my prediction.
— Crimea remains part of Russia.
— Ukraine withdraws from the sliver of territory in Kursk it still occupies.
— The Russian and Ukrainian borders remain the same as before the 2022 invasion. Russia reverses its annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts it made in 2022.
— Russia claims and administers all Ukrainian territory it possesses as of the date of the agreement. Ukraine contests that claim diplomatically.
— The border remains vague and porous. Both sides agree not to contest it militarily.
— Ukraine is given security guarantees by the US and NATO countries but is barred from joining NATO or hosting any NATO bases.
— Elections are held in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky loses.
— Russia rejoins the G7 making it again the G8.
Yep. And the first step is: stop deindustrialising.
The questions no one asks, but everyone thinks about: can Europe, finally, get past its truly petty, nostalgic tribalism? Run the elitists out? Declare a republic? With full suffrage. Not some over arching unelected commission. It can be done. It must be done.
BTW USA NEEDS an organized, open society, self defending, even a bit aggressive, Europe.
Yes.
For our civilization’s survival, everything must change.
Forget it. They are too busy building firewalls against the political parties who might get the most votes to build one against the Russians.
If this is what AR wrote before JD Vance’s speech was delivered, what would he have written had he known what JDV was going to say?
War between large Nations has become impractical. EU leaders need to turn away from war, and find ways to live with Russia in peace.
For 30 years Euro has been all talk with seriously diminishing fight capacity