July 13, 2024 - 5:00pm

All eyes are currently on America and whether Joe Biden can make it through the next week. But in Europe, the fates of two presidents — Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron — also hang in the balance.

On Thursday, the European Parliament will vote on whether to reappoint von der Leyen to a second five-year term as president of the European Commission. She needs a simple majority in the 720-seat body, but it’s a sign of her team’s nervousness that the vote has been brought forward — conveniently, before any supportive MEPs fly off early for their summer holidays. Clearly, a close result is feared.

In theory, she should be home and dry. The parliament is controlled by an alliance of the centre-right European People’s Party plus the social democrats and liberals. Thanks to populist gains, the establishment parties aren’t as dominant as they used to be, but jointly they still have 401 MEPs. Von der Leyen’s problem is that not all of them will vote for her. For some social democrats she’s too conservative; for some conservatives she’s too wet; and, as for the liberals, they’re in a state of flux.

If more than 40 of these MEPs defect, then she risks losing the vote which would end her presidency. That’s why she’s been looking for support beyond the establishment parties. For instance, there was a political flirtation with Giorgia Meloni earlier this year (which has since soured). Von der Leyen is now looking Leftwards for allies — specifically to the Green group of MEPs. However, any deal there could undermine her support on the centre-right, where opposition to what they regard as eco-zealotry is hardening.

Meanwhile in France, Macron finds himself in much the same position as von der Leyen. He too is a centrist who’s chosen to cooperate with the Left — including elements of the hard-Left — rather than the populist Right.

It was an arrangement that limited the advance of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally earlier this month. But Macron now faces a tougher challenge: working with the Left to form a stable government. The New Popular Front (NFP), a broad church of centre-left and Left-wing parties that won the highest proportion of seats in the recent elections, has called for a prime minister who will implement its policies, such as a 90% wealth tax. Macron will certainly find it tricky to play ball with those sorts of demands.

Next week, around the same time that the European Parliament decides von der Leyen’s fate, the alliance of Left-wing parties in the French National Assembly is due to propose a joint candidate for prime minister. If they fail to agree among themselves or propose someone that Macron cannot work with, then a period of chronic political uncertainty — and likely instability — will follow. With the world’s attention about to turn to Paris for the Olympic Games, the timing could not be worse.

It will be even more galling for Macron if von der Leyen loses her vote. In other circumstances, this might have allowed him to reactivate his plan to replace her with a candidate of his choice. But if he’s struggling to hold it together at home, he’ll be in a much weaker position to influence events at EU-level.

There is of course much more at stake here than personal ambition. Whether in Brussels, Paris, or Berlin next year, the ability of the centre and the Left to cooperate is key to holding back the radical Right. If the moderates and progressives don’t hang together, then the populists will have their revenge.


Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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