May 18, 2024 - 4:00pm

Larry Hogan, former Republican governor of heavily blue Maryland and current nominee for an open Senate seat, could become the chamber’s next powerful moderate.

Hogan won the Republican primary this week and has a strong chance of winning in the general election, while he enjoyed strong approval ratings throughout his time as governor despite his Republican affiliation.

As a longtime Donald Trump critic who’s fiscally conservative and socially liberal, Hogan represents an old guard of Republicans who occupy the opposite end of the spectrum from the populist groundswell which has taken over the party since 2016. For example, Republicans are slowly moving to the Left on economic issues, with growing support for paid family leave and organised labour, while Hogan blocked a proposed minimum wage increase and paid sick and family leave. The former governor has also rejected the populist Right’s isolationist streak on foreign policy, arguing for the necessity of sending aid to Ukraine.

With narrow margins in the Senate, moderates gain outsize power and influence as both parties are forced to veer to the centre to win their votes. West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who split with his party on clean energy because of his state’s economic reliance on the coal industry, was often a key swing vote during his time in office, and he was able to block Democrats’ goal of including climate provisions in a massive legislative package in 2022.

Hogan will likely occupy a similar role from the opposite side of the aisle, moderating his party on social issues while joining the GOP establishment on spending. In an apparent effort to maintain his popularity among Democrats, Hogan this week came out in favour of codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law, which would block restrictions on abortion throughout the first six months of pregnancy, having said little on the issue while serving as governor.

He would follow the path of retiring Republican senator Mitt Romney, whose breaks with the party have included a 2020 vote to convict Trump in his impeachment trial and support for the creation of a commission to investigate the January 6 riot.

Americans have an appetite for candidates who don’t fall neatly into party lines, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s strong performance in the presidential race has demonstrated. Hogan’s campaign views his moderate bona fides as a selling point, and the politician emphasised this in a February op-ed. “We must allow real and honest conversations to take hold on even the most challenging issues of the day,” he wrote. “That’s the only way we will take back our politics from the extremes. And only then can we begin to fix the broken politics of Washington.”


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

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