We already knew that Labour was heading for major losses in the May elections. But, as reported by the Times this weekend, party insiders are now using words such as “bloodbath”, “existential” and “apocalyptic”.

Their extreme pessimism isn’t just based on vibes, but rather the dire findings of the party’s private polling. Among the predictions are that all 50 Labour councillors on Sunderland City Council will lose their seats. To put that into context, there’s been a continuous Labour majority on the council since its formation in 1974. For the party to lose this majority would be bad enough, but to lose every seat — and mostly to Reform UK — would be evidence of a profound political realignment. It suggests Labour won’t only lose Sunderland at the next general election, but the North East as a whole.

Of course, Sunderland overwhelmingly voted Leave in the 2016 referendum. It could be argued that Labour has been on shaky ground there ever since, just waiting for a populist challenger capable of exploiting the rupture between the center-left and the English working class. But Labour is on the skids in pro-Remain parts of the country, too. As the Times article points out, the Greens are on the verge of a breakthrough in previously deep-red inner London. In short, there are no safe spaces for Labour.

The one shred of comfort is that while there’s very little that Labour MPs can do before 7 May, there is something they can do in the aftermath: dump Keir Starmer.

The case for doing so is now overwhelming. The Prime Minister is by far the least popular of the party leaders and his credibility has disappeared as completely as Morgan McSweeney’s mobile phone. Given everything that has happened, and which is about to happen, Starmer surely has to go.

However, his allies have been busy in the last few days establishing a counter-narrative. Amplified by journalists including Robert Peston, the message is that the threatened coup is already over. That impression is reinforced by the lack of pushback from Starmer’s Labour critics. Apparently, it’s all a matter of dates: the elections are on 7 May, but the state opening of Parliament isn’t until six days later. So, in the immediate wake of the results, Labour MPs won’t be in Westminster to precipitate their leader’s downfall.

That’s a poor excuse for inaction, however. A better excuse is the personnel problem. Each of the frontrunners to replace Starmer is lacking a crucial ingredient. Andy Burnham is still without a seat. Angela Rayner doesn’t have the credibility. Wes Streeting is ideologically out of step with his colleagues. Ed Miliband’s popularity with the party membership doesn’t extend to the wider electorate. And yet there are other options. Labour MPs could choose a relatable non-frontrunner like Heidi Alexander, or an old hand like Yvette Cooper, or a rising star like Al Carns.

All those candidates have their drawbacks — it’s arguably too early for some of them, and too late for others. But they do share one overwhelming advantage: none of them are Keir Starmer. And that’s the problem with not replacing him: it tells the country that Labour can’t do better.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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