The race to replace Keir Starmer has begun. According to breathless coverage in the weekend papers, the names in the frame include Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and — would you believe it — Ed Miliband. Astonishingly, it’s taken Labour roughly half as long as the Tories under Boris Johnson to get from a crushing election victory to dumping the party leader — or, at least, seriously thinking about it.

However, recent Tory history might put Starmer’s rivals off. Above all, there’s the example of 2022 — the year of the three prime ministers. The transition between the first and second of these was achieved via a circus of a leadership contest that featured 11 candidates, 12 public hustings, six rounds of voting and a total runtime of two months. Farcically, the process lasted longer than its primary product, the ill-fated government of Liz Truss.

Labour appears to be learning the wrong lesson from this debacle, seeking to circumvent party democracy instead of facilitating the honest internal conversations that are required. Indeed, Labour could be on the verge of blowing its last chance to work out what it actually wants to do in government.

Of course, the simplest avoidance strategy is not to change leaders at all. Die-hard fans of Boris Johnson still insist that not deposing their man would have saved the Tories a lot of trouble, and allies of the current PM must be making parallel arguments. But Johnson was doomed anyway, in his case by the Privileges Committee investigation into his Partygate statements. Before reprieving Starmer, his colleagues should be sure they’re not merely putting off the inevitable.

There’s another way of avoiding a leadership contest: a so-called “coronation” in which a new leader is chosen without challenge. Allies of Streeting reportedly think their man would fit the bill perfectly, with the Telegraph claiming that they are pushing for a “Wangela” dream ticket that features Rayner as his deputy. Both politicians have denied any such pact.

Even if there is truth to the rumors, Wangela won’t work if Rayner doesn’t play ball. In an interview this weekend, Starmer said he would welcome her back into the Cabinet, a move which more cynical observers might attribute to him wanting to save his own skin. Alternatively, it’s very possible that she’s planning a leadership bid of her own.

To add to the obstacles, it’s not just Rayner whom Streeting needs to persuade, but all of the leaders of Labour’s “soft Left” faction, who together form a “gang of four” also featuring Miliband, Deputy leader Lucy Powell and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.

But perhaps the biggest problem with the Wangela scheme is that coronations have a terrible track record. Between Labour and the Conservatives, there have been three examples this century: Michael Howard in 2003, Gordon Brown in 2007, and Rishi Sunak in 2022. In each case party managers ensured that the transition of power was uncontested, and in each case the resulting leadership was short-lived and unsuccessful.

Proper leadership contests can produce the wrong result too, but the Labour selectorate does always have the option of not choosing the Labour equivalent of Liz Truss. That, by the way, is Miliband — a clear favorite with party members, but a man who voters have already rejected once as a potential PM.

The real lesson to be learned from the Tory past is that a time of crisis is precisely not the moment to retreat into one’s comfort zone. For Labour, that means putting country before party — and choosing its next leader accordingly.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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