Yesterday, Quinnipiac University released a poll of Pennsylvania voters showing, among other things, how they viewed their state leaders. One of the most remarkable findings was the standing of Democratic Senator John Fetterman. The overall picture for him was pretty good: 46% of voters approved of his job performance compared with 40% who disapproved. But the data beneath the surface was somewhat bewildering. He fared best among Republicans, with fully 73% supporting him. Independents like him too, with 48% approving against 37% disapproving. But among his own party, a paltry 22% of Democrats approve of him.

So why is Fetterman so popular among everyone but his base? Since joining the Senate, he has rarely hesitated to break ranks with Democrats or buck progressive orthodoxy, especially on hot-button topics. He has proudly supported Israel in its fight against Hamas and rejected the “progressive” view on that issue; warned (presciently) that Democrats were not taking the issue of border security seriously enough in the run-up to the 2024 election; said he is “not rooting against” Trump; admonished his party for forgetting “why we lost” in 2024; opposed shutting down the government over ICE funding and rebuked calls to abolish the agency; and chastised Democrats who yelled during Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday.

In this tribal era of American politics, Fetterman’s actions have signaled to many Democrats that he’s not a “team player”. They view Trump and his policies as existential threats to the nation and Fetterman, at best, as an enabler. Of course, voters of either party have a right to expect their side’s elected officials to promote their values and serve as the loyal opposition to a president of the other party. This is nothing new in politics. However, the criticism of Fetterman misses some key things.

First, he still largely sticks with the Democrats. According to data from the website VoteHub, he only votes with President Trump 28% of the time. Though this means he sides with Trump more frequently than any other Senate Democrat, it’s not by much: the next-closest senator, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, votes with Trump 25.6% of the time.

Moreover, Fetterman has sided with Democrats on several high-profile matters. He has taken a decidedly populist tone on economic issues and supported many liberal positions such as closing income tax loopholes for billionaires, repealing executive orders targeting labor unions, and tackling “corporate greed”. He voted “HELL NO” on Trump’s biggest policy priority of his second term, called on the president to fire DHS Secretary Kristi Noem over the Minneapolis fallout, and criticized him for paving the way to increased restrictions on abortion. Fetterman has even sided with the Left on contentious issues related to “gender identity” and said he is a Democrat because of abortion and LGBT issues.

Second, it’s important to remember that Fetterman represents Pennsylvania, perhaps the ultimate swing state. And while he often casts votes one might expect of a Democrat, he also believes he should work to represent all Pennsylvanians, not just those in his party. In past eras, when both parties were more ideologically diverse, it wasn’t uncommon to see members from swing states break with their party. Sadly, this kind of politics is now out of vogue.

Demonstrations of heterodoxy or independence — once a prerequisite of building winning coalitions in competitive races — are rarely rewarded by politicians’ own voters. The dilemma for Fetterman and many other politicians of his ilk may boil down to this: you might represent the median voter, but if you don’t win over the median member of your party’s base, it will be very hard to win.

It is certainly possible Fetterman could survive a Democratic primary in 2028 when he is up for re-election. But at 22% approval among his own party, he’ll have a steep hill to climb, especially against what is likely to be a strong slate of challengers (and in a state with closed primaries). Indeed, far from proving politically successful, Fetterman’s maverick style may simply be a product of a bygone era — and a regrettable sign of the times.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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