February 15, 2025 - 8:15pm

Blankenburg, Germany

It’s Friday night at a small AfD campaign rally in Blankenburg, on the outskirts of Berlin, and local party bigwig Beatrix von Storch is jubilant. After warming up by bashing Germany’s “woke public broadcasters” she switches to the subject she really wants to talk about: “JD Vance’s speech today was fantastic!” She is met by unbridled applause.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference earlier that day, the American Vice President had declared: “What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values […] More and more all over Europe, they are voting for political leaders who promise to put an end to out-of-control migration. Now, I happen to agree with a lot of these concerns, but you don’t have to agree with me.” He added: “There’s no room for firewalls.”

A week before the German elections, Vance’s comments are being viewed as nothing less than an endorsement of the Right-wing, anti-immigration AfD. This was compounded by the VP’s decision to snub German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Munich and meet AfD leader Alice Weidel instead. Speaking at the conference earlier today, Scholz publicly accused Vance of interfering in his country’s elections. His likely successor, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, echoed the sentiment.

Only weeks before, Elon Musk’s face was projected on a giant screen at an AfD campaign event in eastern Germany. The Tesla boss has been promoting the party’s talking points for months, and even interviewed Weidel in January.

Back in Blankenburg, von Storch, who attended Donald Trump’s inauguration, rhapsodised about DOGE’s blitzkrieg on the US government: “That’s exactly what we need in Germany! Drain the swamp!” This time, the applause was more subdued. Could it be that AfD supporters, generally suspicious of elites, are somewhat less optimistic about the interventions of the world’s richest man?

That’s certainly true for the 80% of voters expected to vote for other parties. For normal, middle-class Germans, Musk is too unhinged, too reckless, and too rich. Young crypto-enthusiasts aside, few conservative voters will be persuaded to shift their votes. Indeed, Germans are now abandoning their Teslas.

Similar is true when considering German attitudes toward Vance and his indictment of Europe as a hotbed of censorship. This sort of talk might resonate with the AfD, but the majority of voters are more concerned about limiting irregular immigration and kickstarting the economy. From the centre-left to the centre-right, Vance’s polemic didn’t feel like the encouragement of an ally — it felt like a threat. There’s a new sheriff in town, essentially.

One popular theory is that the strategy behind this MAGA meddling is to sow disruption and uncertainty at the heart of the EU: to divide and conquer, not unlike the Kremlin’s pro-AfD bot armies. Whether this is true or not, and the German polls haven’t substantially moved as a result, centrist politicians have received an almighty wake-up call.

If, after winning next Sunday’s election, Merz dared to form a coalition with the AfD, he would face serious social unrest and mass defections from the CDU. Instead, he will opt for the same middle-of-the-road grand coalition with the SPD that Germans experienced during the Merkel era — albeit with significantly tougher rules on immigration.

However, the CDU leader will also be preoccupied with how he can forge a relationship with the White House. A former lawyer who has bolstered his fortune by sitting on the boards of corporate giants such as BlackRock, Merz is confident he speaks the same language as Trump and can make deals which are beneficial for Germany and Europe.

Yet the messages coming from the new sheriff and his deputies suggest this isn’t going to be easy. Merz is as pro-European and transatlanticist as any other postwar German leader. The challenges he faces — fixing immigration, defence and the economy — are huge. What’s more, he’ll have to solve all of these without American help. Maybe the maximalist MAGA rhetoric is just the usual Trumpian opening gambit in an attempt to strike a better deal for America. Maybe it’s more serious. Either way, Merz should start practicing his poker face.


Maurice Frank co-founded the English magazine Exberliner and now co-writes the newsletter 20 Percent Berlin. 

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