February 10, 2025 - 9:30am
For the first time in years, German voters have a choice between fundamentally different options when they head to the polls on 23 February. Anything from far-Left to far-Right politics is on offer. Yet many feel that real change is frustratingly hard to come by. Last night, a TV debate between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his likely successor Friedrich Merz reinforced those frustrations rather than allaying them.
“TV duels”, as the German media has dubbed them, are a relatively recent addition to German election campaigns. The first one between two contenders for the chancellorship was in 2002, when SPD chancellor Gerhard Schröder went head-to-head with Edmund Stoiber of the conservative CDU/CSU.
In the end, Schröder remained chancellor, and TV debates remained controversial. Critics saw them as overly American, and wanted to import neither the focus on personalities nor the two-party system. This argument made sense at the time: the SPD and the CDU/CSU each received 38.5% of the vote share, and the vast majority of voters did decide between the two.
Those days are over, though. Polls currently have Merz’s CDU/CSU in the lead with just 30%, followed by the anti-immigration AfD on around 20%. The SPD hovers around 15%, marginally ahead of the Greens. So for Germany’s public broadcasters to host a “duel” between the candidates of the first and the third most popular parties like it’s 2002 seems a little out of time.
But it also highlights a much bigger problem. Voting for change is not as easy as it was two decades ago. Merz has already ruled out working with the AfD, and admitted last night that he will knock on the door of Scholz’s SPD first to form a government. So what German viewers received last night was a game of “Let’s pretend”, in this case that voters have a choice between the two parties when there is a good chance they will get both whatever they do.
Side-by-side rather than head-to-head, Scholz and Merz condemned the AfD and agreed to work with one another after the election — each man careful not to cross a line that would make coalition talks impossible.
The irony is that for the first time in decades, their programmes offer real choice. Scholz emphasised his centre-left credentials by arguing for the minimum wage to be raised to Є15 from Є12.82, taxes to go up for high earners, and state subsidies for certain sectors of the economy to be kept in place.
Merz, a former BlackRock executive, argued for a leaner state and tougher immigration laws. In fact, the only time he became visibly emotional was when he spoke about last month’s knife attack in Bavaria, in which a small child and a bystander who tried to intervene were killed by an illegal immigrant.
The CDU leader has seven grandchildren, which might make the issue of illegal immigration and the associated increase in crime more personal to him than others. He even tried to press immediate change on immigration through the German parliament two weeks ago, taking into account that this might pass with AfD votes, which is regarded a taboo in German politics. The fact that the SPD and the Greens voted against this demonstrates the clear blue water between Merz and Scholz.
And yet, despite these very different offerings on the ballot paper, many voters despair at the idea that they cannot find a way to vote for real change. All other parties rule out working with the AfD, which means one or even both of the current coalition partners will be in Merz’s government, slamming the brakes on change — especially regarding immigration, which is currently the biggest concern for voters according to the polls.
What millions of viewers saw last night was not a passionate clash of rivals but preliminary coalition talks. In contrast to 2002, many Germans now don’t feel they get to choose between the two main parties. They know they may well end up with both.
Katja Hoyer is a German-British historian and writer. She is the author, most recently, of Beyond the Wall: East Germany, 1949-1990.
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SubscribeThe cosy cartel is, however, pushing the electorate deeping into the tails. The overton window will break at some point such that no coalition can withstand (arguably the case in France). As one of my favourite analysts always says: more pain required.
Incredible irony that all attempts to block AfD, and therefore an increasing number of constituents, will only result in their – or something more radical – inevitable ascension.
We only seem to learn history as it serves a cudgel against our perceived enemies. Non scholae sed vitae discimus.
That’s politics under a proportional representation system for you.
Is that system worse than one that gives Labour 63% of the seats on 34% of the vote while Reform got 15% of the vote and less than 1% of the seats. The impasse in German politics is not due to proportional representation but to the refusal of the CDU/CSU to form a coalition with the AfD. The CDU/CSU and AfD would poll around 50% of the vote, more than enough to form a government.
Yes it is worse. Labour won because the Tory vote didn’t turn out for them…because they weren’t actually Tories anymore.
The Tories got a well deserved kicking but don’t seem to have learned the lesson.
Have you listened to Badenoch. She seems pretty Tory to me. She may have to manoeuvre to defeat her wets just as Thatcher had to but she makes the right arguments and has the right instincts.
Kemi may be OK (but not convinced) but her party is riddled with Socialists and other non-Tories. Therefore the Cons still need to be wiped out.
She may sound ” Tory”. In fact she is more naturally Conservative than Sunak. But the body of her party is not.
The membership may be mostly right leaning, but most Tory M,Ps would be quite comfy being Lib Dems, and make that clear when put to the test. Look at CCHQ. The Tory Party refused David Frost a tilt at winning a seat because he was too Conservative.
They are done.
Move right along. Nothing to see here citizens.
I guess it’s time to start a lottery to bet on which far-right populist nationalist Literally Hitler party comes to power first: AfD, Rassemblement National, or Reform UK.
Faites vos jeux, mes amis!
Plenty more options: Spain, NL, Austria, Sweden etc
If they keep ignoring the issues that are winning the AfD support, eventually the AfD will become too big to avoid working with. Politics may be a slower burner in Europe than in the States but you can’t ignore the electorate forever