February 22, 2024 - 3:00pm
Fears over an impending assault on Rafah and speculation about American support for a ceasefire come amid an increasingly dire political situation for Benjamin Netanyahu.
Growing opposition from the Israeli public since 7 October has until now been ineffective, but there are signs that momentum is building to force elections or otherwise remove him from office. At the weekend, the head of the Histadrut (Israel’s equivalent of the TUC) called for elections and stated that Netanyahu should have already resigned.
This was significant, as the trade unions form a key part of Netanyahu’s and Likud’s power base. During the judicial reform crisis of last year Histadrut Chairman Arnon Bar-David consistently refused to call for a general strike, despite intense pressure from activists who even took to picketing outside his house.
After meeting Netanyahu last July, Bar-David argued that industrial action to prevent the laws from passing or bring down the government would be illegitimate. He criticised those pushing for Bibi’s resignation as “illogical” and “engaging in a politics that is out of date” given the threats and the difficulties faced by Israel.
Yet in Saturday’s speech in Beersheva this language had shifted notably, with Bar-David stating that “someone has made us enemies of each other”. Apparently, these words led to “hysteria” in Netanyahu’s office and they have since been making pleas for statements of support from heads of industry.
It was notable that these remarks came in a speech in Beersheva — a poor, peripheral city heavily populated by working-class and Mizrahi Israelis, far away from the hipsters and liberals of Tel Aviv. What’s more, his comments are part of a broader trend of developing opposition to Likud among groups not typically associated with the Left.
The number of prominent ex-military personnel campaigning to remove Netanyahu expanded last week to a group of veterans from the 1973 war, who took over one of his holiday villas in a bid to force action on hostages. Meanwhile, there is growing opposition among people displaced from the city of Sderot — the closest major settlement to the Gaza border and a hotbed of support for Likud — who criticised the government for neglecting their interests.
That so many of the hostage families are from communities that have traditionally been supportive of Bibi is particularly damaging for his prospects. After Einav Tsengauker, whose son Matan was kidnapped along with his girlfriend from Benir Oz, was attacked by a Netanyahu supporter in Tel Aviv recently, she told reporters: “I have been a Right-wing woman all my life. I have always voted for Netanyahu, including in the last elections. But the only people who sympathise with me, who give me real help, are the people of the protest organisations […] Those who went out to demonstrate against the legal reform are the ones who now give me support.”
Since the 7 October attacks and their aftermath heightened opposition to Bibi among sections of Israeli society which previously contained his biggest supporters, the Israeli Prime Minister has become more dependent on the religious settler element of his base. He is under ever more pressure to accede to their maximalist demands; in his latest such concession this week, Netanyahu overruled objections from security officials and agreed to limit Arab Israeli access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan, despite the obvious risk of violence.
At the same time, actions such as these — combined with the increasingly unsustainable situation in the West Bank (whose economy has been devastated by the loss of work permits since 7 October) and the pending attack of Rafah — mean that pressure in the opposition direction from the United States and the international community will only increase.
While the exigencies of the war have done much to keep him in position so far, it’s increasingly hard to see him surviving to fight an election. And when his downfall comes, it is likely to be swifter than previously expected.
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Subscribe…trade unions form a key part of Netanyahu’s and Likud’s power base
…so many of the hostage families are from communities that have traditionally been supportive of Bibi
David, you are lying and you know it. You are trying your best to achieve a ceasefire, understanding, although carefully hiding the fact that this step leads to the destruction of Israel. Although when did this stop the galut non-religious Jews? Being friends with progressives is much more important to them
Just keep saying ….”and you know it….” And similar babyish stuff doesn’t provide an argument.
Do you consider the Netanyahu government in any way accountable for the terrible security lapse which led to the 7 October invasion?
Fascinating that you even stoop to attack non-religious Jews.
Regardless of what happens to Bibi Author doesn’t offer opinion on whether a change will change the policy of absolutely defeating Hamas in Gaza even if that involves all the consequences from going with overwhelming force into Rafah? Heard elsewhere that it won’t, and that Israeli society remains resolute on that despite awareness of World opinion.
That reflects the understanding that despite everything Hamas leaders like Khaled Meshaal and Yehiya Sinwar continue to say what a great day 7/10 was, how they want to repeat given the chance and how they don’t subscribe one iota to a Two-State solution because they want the lot. Coupled with similar from Hezbollah and Iran it’s no surprise Israeli opinion unwavering even if they’d welcome being led by a more unifying character than Bibi.
As soon as a more unifying character appears, he will immediately become as bad as Bibi and you know I’m right
I wonder about that too. Perhaps the times call for more people like Trump and Bibi. I wish they didn’t, but liberal politicians seem more concerned with gender-bending social issues rather than maintaining peace, freedom, and economic prosperity.
Perhaps finding a leader who isn’t personally corrupt would be a good start.
Corrupt according to Haaretz readers or Trump-Russia collusion supporters 🙂
Well, my countryman James Packer certainly gave Netanyahu lots of “gifts”. That much is clear, and on the public record.
Netanyahu without any real doubt has plenty of dodgy personal history, probably the main reason why he wants to stay in political office.
But in any case he is now a complete liability for Israel. And his government actually has some culpability for the complete unpreparedness of the 7 October attack, plus it has often sought to transactionally work with Hamas.
This is not the time to shuffle the deck in Israel come what may. The ruling structure is united as is most of the country. In free countries opposition forces exist. In Democracies they can be Communists. In Communist countries they they are people who fight for freedoms. Leftists in Israel fed by international money can be loud but they don’t represent the majority.
The majority are average working people. The barber, the truck driver, the farmer are all usually Likud which is Netanyahu’s party. The cosmopolitan cities on the West Coast are home to liberals and they oppose Netanyahu but they lost the election so they’re out. Beersheva is a growing bustling college town. It caters to students and there’s a lot of building there. Where there are colleges there are Leftists.
Netanyahu took the blame for October as much as GW Bush took the blame for 9/11 and Roosevelt Pearl Harbor. Like Golda Meir and the American presidents Netanyahu may step down after he’s been redeemed by victory. When Jews can move back to the bordering areas around Gaza and not be threatened with rockets and firebombs he may leave but not soon no matter how much the left screams. The heinous surprise attack sucker punch of October needs to be rectified first.
Churchill took the blame for the fall of Singapore in 1942. It almost cost him the premiership. Chamberlain took the blame for the debacle in Norway in 1940. He was not so lucky: he was forced to resign. So democracies can and do change horses in midstream, even when faced with an existential crisis.
Explain to me why he is guilty if no one told him (undeniable fact!). This may be a reason for those who don’t like him, but it’s not enough to be guilty.
On the other hand, people are now so accustomed to following their hearts that using their brains has become completely unnecessary. In this sense he is guilty.
Hilarious that you of all people argue about following their hearts and not heads! Your last response was a complete non sequitur, not even attempting to answer the reasonable question put to you. Churchill became PM during Britain’s darkest hour because Chamberlain was seen to have failed and was ousted.
Netanyahu’s side have been too pally with Hamas to weaken the Palestinian Authority. It has now proved to be a disastrous policy.
The IDF is much respected as a fighting force, and Mossad and Shin Bet are among the world’s best intelligence agencies. What were they doing on October 7? Were they down the pub? At the beach perhaps? Whichever, Netanyahu had one job (to keep the people of Israel safe), and he blew it utterly and completely. He must take responsibility for that.
I hope this isn’t wishful thinking. He needs to be in The Hague, answering for his crimes, not still committing them, with OUR support, in Gaza.
What kind of crime? To fight with pure evil is not a crime, it’s a duty.
A crime is what you do by supporting Gaza, that is, Hamas, de facto. Politicians in your parliament are intimidated by direct threats from Islamists against them, but you consider this normal.
However, if you dream of a British caliphate, good luck!
I don’t believe in evil, but if I did, I would see it personified in Netanyahu.
I don’t support Hamas or Israel. I support innocent children. Killing them is wrong, whoever does it. Netanyahu must answer for this. Maybe you will be right, and he will be found innocent.
Whether or not there is a British caliphate has no bearing on what is happening in Gaza.
“innocent children“?
Feminists seem to have achieved almost complete success in replacing reason with “feelings” in modern effeminate men.
Children are always innocent, but why are you not interested in the degree of guilt of their parents? Did you ever think about that?
Have you ever thought about children in carnival costumes of shahids?
Have you ever asked yourself why the young man so joyfully says to his mother: “Mom, mom, you can be proud of me, I just killed 10 Jews with my own hands!”
He is also innocent, essentially, in your pampered imagination, because he may even be a minor.
You can see an evil personified in me, I don’t give a f..k, because I’m not an interested in people, who give evil right to exist because of “innocent children”.
I’m so sorry; I didn’t realise all the dead children in Gaza had killed 10 times their number. My bad.
They would if they could. Evil depends on intentionality, a point wilfully misunderstood by many progressives. Israel could have by now, if it has so wishes, annihilated the Gaza population, many years ago. It hasn’t.
Very, very well said.
If Hamas put rocket launchers in school playgrounds, what do you expect to happen?
Would you have no problem wiping the school off the map?
“child killers” is an accusation thrown around by enemies wanting sympathy and peaceniks oblivious to the fight against evil. Viet Nam veterans were called that. Besides that, how can anybody trust casualty numbers coming from Hamas after the 500-at-the-hospital lie at the beginning of the war.Nobody called the British that after Dresden. Nobody called the United States that after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
I’m sure Netanyahu will relish his day in court, proving his innocence.
This is pure fantasy – it’s not going to happen. Do you think Vladimir Putin might end up at The Hague?
So you would have opposed any military attacks by the Allies in WW2 which led to the deaths of civilians?
To fight with pure evil is not a crime, it’s a duty.
Where was this duty on October 7? Netanyahu had a duty to protect the people of Israel, and he failed in that duty manifestly and abjectly.
According to your logic, it would be just fine to track you down in a dark alley, hit you over the head with a baseball bat, then break all your bones, and then blame you for what happened because you were not vigilant enough. Unfortunately, the criminal court is not always guided by the logic of idiots, which is a pity – then our discussion could be moved into a more convincing direction
Your analogy would be fine if I had a security detachment to protect me, but I had given them the night off that night. A better analogy would be if you were hired to be a babysitter, but you got drunk and fell asleep on the sofa, and somebody stole the baby. Netanyahu was clearly “asleep at the wheel” on October 7.
A ceasefire means the return of the hostages and your demands are unacceptable to the people of Gaza.
A ceasefire is not the topic of discussion here.
Hamas admits to 9000 fighter casualties and Israel claims 12000. By both counts that is from out of the 30k official dead figure. So it is true to say that the majority of killed are “women and children”. However that is war in dense urban fighting against fighters heavily embedded in and with total disregard for the civilians. The only alternative would be to turn the other cheek and line up for the next slaughter.
If you want to get into a discussion of numbers of dead, shall we begin in 1948 and go from there?
1948, after which Israël gave citizenship to the Arabs living in Israel who now number 2 million.
1948, when Jordan (which consisted of 75% British Mandated Palestine, mostly arabs of the region, the same arabs living previously under ottoman rule) occupied the West Bank & East Jerusalem and ethnically cleansed the region of its Jews, and Jewish life.
Why start in 1948? Why not start with the number of Jews murdered in the “Arab revolt” or in the Farhod in Iraq an fedayeen incursions. Then we can go on to the number of Jews ethnically cleansed from Arab countries, long before “the occupation”? But ultimately a pointless exercise, I feel.
You totally missed my point though. I was talking about the probable civilian casualty ratio. Something like this study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8581199/ . Before you start crying genocide, you need to learn a bit about how many people get killed in wars and you will see that regrettable as any deaths are, it is impossible to fight a war without people getting killed, and on an average many many supposedly non-involved people get killed in the “legitimate” use of violence against enemy combatants. And when those combatants wear civvies and embed themselves amongst genuine non-involved civilians it just makes it worse.
So why does Israel’s staunchest ally, Joe Biden, want to get rid of Bibi?
It’s that simple.
Because Joe cares more about the election than Israel.
Joe Biden is most certainly not Israel’s staunchest ally!
Read about Dor Shachar, an arab from gaza born in 1978 & converted to Judaism .. his view on Hamas tells all.
It never ceases to amaze me how so many of the liberal left fall the PR bias of the likes of Hamas .. an evil murdering bunch of thugs.
The Arab world doesn’t support its own people, never has, never will .. it’s a clash of civilisations.
Wishful thinking by someone who obviously reads too many Haaretz op-eds.
What is wishful thinking?
I am a great friend of the State of Israel, but no friend at all of Netanyahu. His dereliction of duty made the events of October 7 far worse than they needed to be, and Israel would be well rid of him for that reason alone (there is no need to even discuss the many other reasons Israel would be well rid of him).
Sderot is not a ‘settlement’ – its a small city. Beersheva has a mixed socio-econiomic population – not only ‘working-class & ‘poorer Mizrahi.’ It appears David Swift doesn’t know his subject.