February 12, 2025 - 1:30pm

After a few short weeks of peace, a return to war in Gaza appears imminent. Hamas announced on Monday that it was suspending the return of Israeli hostages, claiming that Israel was breaking the ceasefire agreement by firing on civilians.

Meanwhile in Israel, there has been growing anger at the humiliating handover ceremonies, where hostages are paraded in front of baying mobs by ranks of smartly-dressed and very much still alive Hamas fighters.

It always looked as though the ceasefire would struggle to get past the first stage, given the proposed Israeli military concessions and the serious crimes committed by Palestinian prisoners due to be released under the second stage. Israeli ministers who reluctantly accepted the first phase, such as Bezalel Smotrich, had already made it clear they could not accept the second stage.

Now that the female hostages have been returned — apart from Shiri Bibas and her two children, who are feared dead — and considering the emaciated condition of the last three hostages, with a dwindling number believed to remain alive, there is fresh pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to return to war. Yesterday, the Israeli Prime Minister threatened to end the ceasefire if the hostages are not returned by Saturday.

Ominously, there has been a return of the anonymous briefings from the infamous “source close to the Israeli government” which played an important role in undermining negotiations last year — and which was blamed for collapsing the proposed ceasefire in April.

When the current ceasefire was announced in mid-January, much was made of how pressure from Donald Trump had succeeded where Joe Biden had failed. But the way the US President is talking now suggests he would be happy to wipe out Hamas — or have Israel do it for him.

Hamas leaders are obviously listening to what Trump is saying. Since the hostages are one of the very few means they have to protect themselves, given Trump’s rhetoric, it makes sense that Hamas is determined to hang on to them.

There are some who argue that Trump is a strategic genius, making outrageous statements to apply pressure, adapting Richard Nixon’s “madman” theory to Israel-Palestine. Alternatively, there are those who accept the prima facie case that he is ignorant and just says whatever comes into his head, even if it contradicts what he said the previous day. Whichever interpretation you subscribe to, it’s near-impossible to predict what Trump will do or say, and pointless to try.

But we can look at the facts on the ground. For as long as Netanyahu remains in office, a Palestinian state is a non-starter, and the current circumstances suggest that he has more chance of staying in office through resuming the war.

Meanwhile, Trump’s appointments of staunch supporters of Israel — such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, UN Ambassador Elise Stefanik, and Israeli Ambassador Mike Huckabee — all suggest that he is happy for Bibi to return to war with a vengeance. The US President has seemingly concluded that if he is to secure the long-term end of the war in Gaza, reach a deal with Saudi Arabia, and secure his place in the history books as the man who brought peace to the Middle East, Hamas needs to be eliminated.

Speaking to Fox News yesterday, Rubio said that “Hamas is breaking the deal.” He added: “the President is tired of the drip, drip, drip [and] he wants people out […] If these guys don’t go through with their deal on Saturday, then I think we’re back to where we were a few months ago where Hamas is going to be eliminated and the Israelis are going to go in and take care of that problem.”

When one combines this with Trump’s remarks over the past few weeks and the suspension of the hostage deal, the omens do not look good. All signs indicate an imminent return to bloodshed.


David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

davidswift87