January 18, 2025 - 8:00am

Although the ceasefire deal tentatively agreed between Israel and Hamas is welcome and long overdue, there are good reasons to hold off on the celebrations. With so many cynical and bad-faith actors involved — in Israel, Gaza, Qatar, Washington and elsewhere — it’s hard to believe that even the first phase will go ahead until we see the first tranche of hostages returning on Sunday.

If it does proceed, this first phase is scheduled to see Israeli women, children and elderly hostages released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. According to a list just published by the Israeli government, these Palestinians will mostly consist of women, minors, and men arrested for non-violent offences.

The second and third phases, which would involve the release of Palestinian militants with a history of violence, are even more uncertain. Notoriously, a large number of the 1,027 Palestinians released in exchange for the captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit back in 2011 went on to participate in attacks on Israel — including Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

This is why Israeli hardliners such as Bezalel Smotrich have already said they will work to prevent the second stage of the exchange from unfolding. Among ordinary citizens, many of the family members of soldiers killed during the past 15 months of war have expressed their opposition to the ceasefire deal.

Even those on the Left who have long called for a ceasefire have expressed criticism of the deal, with one columnist in the liberal Haaretz newspaper arguing that “leaving Hamas in place in Gaza, near the communities where it massacred, is not only a moral injustice but also a security danger of the highest order.” What’s more, Hamas has not been “punished for its terrible crimes against humanity, and even receives rewards for them in the form of protection of its sovereignty and released prisoners who will have a part in restoring its leadership and capabilities”.

For their part, the hostages’ families are gearing up for a fresh campaign to insist that all the Palestinian prisoners are released if it means getting every hostage back. Einav Zangauker, one of the most prominent campaigners for a ceasefire and hostages deal, has this week made a statement saying the struggle for the hostages’ families is only just beginning, and that they must continue to ensure that the deal is implemented in full.

If the second and third stages of the deal are enacted, then the political and economic reconstruction of Gaza and subsequent relationship with Hamas will become key to Israel’s security.

When Sinwar was released as part of the Gilad Shalit swap, Israel helped to promote him as an alternative to Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah party; there is even a clip of Smotrich from 2015, which became famous in the wake of the 7 October attacks, stating that Sinwar was an “asset” for Israel. It is believed that in the decade after his release, the Israelis had several opportunities to assassinate Sinwar, but Benjamin Netanyahu always demurred, as he was considered more useful alive.

That dreadful strategic miscalculation is a warning that if Israel washes its hands of Gaza, and makes no attempt to negotiate on Palestinian statehood or anything else, then many of the people released under the ceasefire deal will indeed be involved in the bloodshed of Israelis in the years to come.

But given the current political situation — not merely Netanyahu’s own inclination and dependence on those even more Right-wing than him, but also broader public opinion in the country — it is currently impossible for Israel to have any kind of working relationship with Hamas in the near future.

For this reason, it is highly likely that the ceasefire deal will not hold, but will collapse after the first phase is complete — if it even makes it that far. Any cause for celebration in Gaza or Israel is still a long way off.


David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

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