Although the ceasefire deal tentatively agreed between Israel and Hamas is welcome and long overdue, there are good reasons to hold off on the celebrations. With so many cynical and bad-faith actors involved — in Israel, Gaza, Qatar, Washington and elsewhere — it’s hard to believe that even the first phase will go ahead until we see the first tranche of hostages returning on Sunday.
If it does proceed, this first phase is scheduled to see Israeli women, children and elderly hostages released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. According to a list just published by the Israeli government, these Palestinians will mostly consist of women, minors, and men arrested for non-violent offences.
The second and third phases, which would involve the release of Palestinian militants with a history of violence, are even more uncertain. Notoriously, a large number of the 1,027 Palestinians released in exchange for the captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit back in 2011 went on to participate in attacks on Israel — including Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
This is why Israeli hardliners such as Bezalel Smotrich have already said they will work to prevent the second stage of the exchange from unfolding. Among ordinary citizens, many of the family members of soldiers killed during the past 15 months of war have expressed their opposition to the ceasefire deal.
Even those on the Left who have long called for a ceasefire have expressed criticism of the deal, with one columnist in the liberal Haaretz newspaper arguing that “leaving Hamas in place in Gaza, near the communities where it massacred, is not only a moral injustice but also a security danger of the highest order.” What’s more, Hamas has not been “punished for its terrible crimes against humanity, and even receives rewards for them in the form of protection of its sovereignty and released prisoners who will have a part in restoring its leadership and capabilities”.
For their part, the hostages’ families are gearing up for a fresh campaign to insist that all the Palestinian prisoners are released if it means getting every hostage back. Einav Zangauker, one of the most prominent campaigners for a ceasefire and hostages deal, has this week made a statement saying the struggle for the hostages’ families is only just beginning, and that they must continue to ensure that the deal is implemented in full.
If the second and third stages of the deal are enacted, then the political and economic reconstruction of Gaza and subsequent relationship with Hamas will become key to Israel’s security.
When Sinwar was released as part of the Gilad Shalit swap, Israel helped to promote him as an alternative to Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah party; there is even a clip of Smotrich from 2015, which became famous in the wake of the 7 October attacks, stating that Sinwar was an “asset” for Israel. It is believed that in the decade after his release, the Israelis had several opportunities to assassinate Sinwar, but Benjamin Netanyahu always demurred, as he was considered more useful alive.
That dreadful strategic miscalculation is a warning that if Israel washes its hands of Gaza, and makes no attempt to negotiate on Palestinian statehood or anything else, then many of the people released under the ceasefire deal will indeed be involved in the bloodshed of Israelis in the years to come.
But given the current political situation — not merely Netanyahu’s own inclination and dependence on those even more Right-wing than him, but also broader public opinion in the country — it is currently impossible for Israel to have any kind of working relationship with Hamas in the near future.
For this reason, it is highly likely that the ceasefire deal will not hold, but will collapse after the first phase is complete — if it even makes it that far. Any cause for celebration in Gaza or Israel is still a long way off.
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SubscribeA ceasefire is indeed welcome, but any ceasefire requiring the swap of disproportionate numbers of terrorists versus hostages is crazy. Israel should be supported internationally to finish the job. Only the utter destruction of Hamas will protect Israeli citizens. The only real justification for a ceasefire is the immediate return of all kidnapped hostages and the surrender of remaining terrorists. Until then it is Hamas that is responsible for every civilian death in Gaza.
Oh. Hamas are responsible for every child that’s been smudged into Gaza? All of them, human shield victims yeah? Dude, the narcissistic morons filmed themselves. Wake up.
“But given the current political situation — not merely Netanyahu’s own inclination and dependence on those even more Right-wing than him, but also broader public opinion in the country — it is currently impossible for Israel to have any kind of working relationship with Hamas in the near future.”
Astonishing that anyone can commit to paper such morally imbecilic drivel. The reason it is impossible for Israel to have any kind of working relationship with Hamas, whether in the near future, the far future, or ever, is that Hamas is explicitly committed to wiping Israel from the face of the earth and exterminating whatever Jews it finds on its territory. One might as well speak of the possibility of a working relationship with the Nazis in February 1945. “In the near future”!
If Israel makes no attempt to negotiate on Palestinian statehood it is not going to be pleasant. What if Israel does attempt to negotiate on Palestinian statehood?
“With so many cynical and bad-faith actors involved — in Israel, Gaza, Qatar, Washington and elsewhere…”
Google false equivalence. Why do liberals always, always, always, scream about the mote in the West’s eye while ignoring the beam in our enemies’ eyes? It’s masochistic.
“… these Palestinians will mostly consist of women, minors, and men arrested for non-violent offences.”
Really? As a matter of fact, according to the list you linked to, out of 734 to be released the vast majority are men, only 10 are minors (16 or 17 y o). They include at least 40 convicted terrorists that received multiple life sentences each.
Deal upsides:
Hamas may release some of the hostages
Deal Downsides:
1) Boosts Hamas morale and leaves it intact enough to regroup and repeat.
2) Releases thousands of terrorists to boost Jihadi ranks
3) Wastes much of the sacrifice of 850 or so Israeli soldiers, giving up most of the strategic gains.
4) No peace from genocidal Islamic supremacists.
Is this deal worth the price?
In Arabic, “Salam” has the root meaning of “submission”. Naively, “salam” is translated as “peace”, but you do not understand the Arabs of the Middle-East, until you understand that their idea of “Peace” is when one side submits.
The Middle East only ever has peace when one side of a conflict proves itself decisively stronger than its rivals. The past 15 months and sacrifice of 850 Young Israeli soldiers were beginning to get the needed respect of the Arab side
This “ceasefire deal”, at a stroke, negates 15 months of painful work. The “deal” is unlikely to hold – the Jihadis can’t help themselves. So we will be back to fighting, with most of the hostages still in Jihadi hands. Worse Hamas et al know that hostage taking works and they can still rely on international (especially American) pressure to save them from the law of submission-to-might that governs the middle-east.
Humanely deport the entire population of Gaza to the Arab world (plenty of room there for two million of their brethren whom they love so much) and then wipe Gaza off the face of the Earth.
A wise move on Israel’s part to get the hostages back while there’s uncertainty regarding Trump’s position.
Hamas is a one trick pony – they will break with any peace agreement relatively quickly.
Simply because Hamas has not and will never renounce their desire to foment and execute a mass extinction event upon the Jewish people, and the eradication the State of Israel.
Get as many hostages back in this short period of time that Hamas pretends to be interested in peace. For it will be short.
We’ve all witnessed that Hamas cannot be anything other than it is.
So here we are on the 21st January after only three Israeli women were released yesterday and 50 or was it 90 Palestinians released from Israel. This uneven trading is obviously unfair and disgusting- are Israeli lives worth 1/3 less than a Palestinian one? It’s a disgrace.