February 4, 2025 - 11:30pm

There was speculation ahead of President Donald Trump’s meeting today with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the two leaders might find themselves at odds over the Gaza ceasefire deal spearheaded by the administration. Instead, Trump doubled down on his proposal to “clean out” the Gaza Strip and relocate Palestinians to neighbouring Arab countries like Egypt and Jordan. Incredibly, he then suggested that the US should take over Gaza.

Trump’s remarks would seem to be at odds with his administration’s goal of expanding the Abraham Accords to include an Israeli-Saudi normalisation deal. In the wake of Israel’s response to the 7 October attacks, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced that diplomatic relations with Israel would be dependent on Israel paving the path for a Palestinian state. Considering that Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, the Palestinian Authority and the Arab League released a joint statement rebuking Trump’s suggestion, the goal of an Israeli-Saudi accord now looks like a pipe dream.

Nor is it likely that the Trump administration will shy away from its position. Some of the President’s first appointments have voiced support for Israeli annexation of the West Bank, including Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and Ambassador to the UN Elise Stefanik. Meanwhile, Trump’s national security advisor Michael Waltz went further, stating that Palestinian resettlement would take 10-15 years. None of this bodes well for Israel’s normalisation with the Arab world.

Trump also signed an executive order reimposing his first administration’s hawkish “maximum pressure” sanctions policy towards Iran. Yet at the same time, he signalled a willingness to talk with Tehran, saying his main objection is to Iranian nuclear weapons and that he is “unhappy” to impose new sanctions. When asked by reporters during his press conference whether the United States would support Israeli strikes against Iran, Trump said “we’ll see what happens.”

A generous reading of the President’s seemingly contradictory positions might be that this is classic Trump: keeping options open and maximising leverage while seeking to cut a deal. There was no sign, however, that Trump was willing to apply similar pressure on Netanyahu to move forward with Phase II of the ceasefire deal. The terms of Phase II would have Hamas release the remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza — terms which far-Right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet openly oppose, risking the collapse of Netanyahu’s government.

Trump’s comments also reveal no willingness to deal even-handedly with the Palestinians. Indeed, it’s a foreboding sign that the first foreign leader to visit Trump in his second term currently has a warrant out for his arrest from the International Criminal Court for war crimes.

The events of the day gave a different impression of the incoming administration, one that looked an awful lot like the first Trump term’s Middle East policy. In essence, it’s shaping up to be a traditional hardline approach towards Iran while providing unconditional support for Israel. Yet it’s unclear who is pushing for such a policy. As Trump said while signing the “maximum pressure” executive order today, “so this is one I’m torn about… Everyone wants me to sign it. I’ll do that.”

That means that the risk of US entanglement in the region is likely to continue (which will definitely be the case if American troops are stationed in Gaza). Not only does this threaten to draw the US into a conflict with Iran, it continues to endanger US troops in the region. If Trump were serious about “America First,” he’d strike a harder bargain not only with Iran, but with Israel as well.


Christopher McCallion is a fellow at Defense Priorities.

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