Might President Trump shock the world once again and recognise a Palestinian state next week?

It sounds far-fetched in the context of Trump’s assertion of US ownership over Gaza and the forcible relocation of its people. Nevertheless, the Jerusalem Post reports that the Sunni Arab monarchies believe Trump may do just that prior to or during his visit to Saudi Arabia next week. The newspaper notes that “A Gulf diplomatic source, who declined to be named or disclose his position, told The Media Line, ‘President Donald Trump will issue a declaration regarding the State of Palestine and American recognition of it, and that there will be the establishment of a Palestinian state without the presence of Hamas.'”

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee quickly denied the reports. Still, there is no question that Trump intends to bolster US relations with Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni monarchies in Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, the UAE, and Qatar. The US President’s primary motivation here is economic rather than political. Saudi Arabia appears set to make major new investments in the US economy ranging into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Trump also hopes to persuade the UAE and Qatar to make significant new investments of their own in the US economy. And he recognises that the best way to secure these long-term investments is to first build a stronger foundation of partnerships. Always determined that history will remember him as a legendary peacemaker, Trump will want to come away from Saudi Arabia with a clear pathway to building on his first term Abraham Accord deals and strengthening US relationships in the Middle East. Those deals saw Israel establish diplomatic relations with Morocco, Sudan, the UAE, and Bahrain.

Yet the US President knows that Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman cannot agree to his own accord with Israel, and a truly unlimited US partnership without a US resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The current situation obviously makes the medium-term prospect of a two-state solution highly improbable.

But Trump may regard recognition of a Palestinian state in at least a technical sense of limited territory in the West Bank as a stepping stone to consolidate his relationship with bin Salman. Huckabee’s rejection of this possibility should not be taken as a definitive resolution to this question. After all, Trump regularly makes and announces important decisions without consulting all of his top officials. Regardless of the Palestinian question, it appears highly likely that he will use his Saudi trip to announce a major US effort to develop a Saudi civilian nuclear programme.

It also bears noting that Trump’s personal affinity for bin Salman and the leaders of the Sunni monarchies is stronger than his affinity for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In part, this is because the monarchies can flatter Trump with regal deference and gold-garnished pomp. But it’s also because Trump appears to revel in their Arab custom of trust and friendship facilitating massive business and peace deals.

At the same time, the US President has clearly sidestepped Netanyahu in his deployment of Steve Witkoff on numerous trips to negotiate with Hamas. Trump also knows that the Israelis are deeply frustrated with his efforts to negotiate a new nuclear accord with Iran, and his ceasefire agreement with the Houthis in Yemen. But he pushes on.

So while it’s improbable, it is far from impossible that Trump will recognise a Palestinian state next week. He is clearly prioritising the Sunni Arab monarchies and his own ambitions over the preferences of Netanyahu’s government. Whether driven by diplomacy, ego, or economic calculation, a surprise move on Palestine would be entirely in character — and potentially history-shaping.

---

Tom Rogan is a national security writer at the Washington Examiner

TomRtweets

---