The US intelligence community (IC) issued a highly notable report on Havana Syndrome on Friday. What the government refers to as “Anomalous Health Incidents” (AHI), Havana Syndrome was first reported by diplomats and intelligence officers at the US embassy in Havana, Cuba in 2016. Since then, AHIs have been reported by more than 1,500 US military and government personnel across the globe (including in Washington D.C.). Symptoms include headaches, loss of gait, nausea, traumatic brain injuries, and very serious long-term neurological impairments.

While a 2023 collective IC report stated that it was “very unlikely” a foreign actor was responsible for any AHIs, yesterday’s report changes the narrative. It states that one IC component judges there is a “roughly even chance” a foreign actor has used a novel weapon or prototype device to harm a small, undetermined subset of AHI reporting victims. Additionally, another component assesses it is “likely” a foreign actor has a radio-frequency antipersonnel capability and that this capability can cause biological effects consistent with some of the symptoms reported as possible AHIs. The other component assesses there is a “roughly even chance” that a foreign actor has a capability that could have caused some of the experiences reported as possible AHIs.

This language represents a marked shift in what, until now, has been an adamant IC effort to deny that Havana Syndrome is anything other than an unexplained ailment utterly unrelated to any hostile foreign intelligence service activity. Even in the hours following the report, many within the community have dismissed the involvement of foreign actors as “very unlikely”. But while it is highly probable that a large number Havana Syndrome victims are suffering from conventional ailments, there is significant evidence indicating that a small subset of the Russian intelligence apparatus is responsible for some Havana Syndrome incidents. What’s more, it appears that the Russians are doing so by employing radio-frequency weapons to essentially microwave their targets.

This fits with a pattern of Russian intelligence service usage of novel weaponry dating back to the KGB and the so-called “Moscow signal” of the Cold War. There is also circumstantial but compelling evidence to suggest that George W. Bush may have been targeted with a Havana Syndrome device during the 2007 G7 summit in Germany. Put simply, this is a very big deal. Russia has been committing acts of war against the US for years. And has got away with doing so.

Two factors appear to have driven this creeping shift in the IC’s assessment on Havana Syndrome. First, increasing diligence and scrutiny by the House Intelligence and Homeland Security Committees of the IC’s prior Havana Syndrome findings. Raw signals and technical intelligence reviewed by members of those committees points strongly towards Russia’s hand. Second, the Biden administration’s departure from office allows the IC to shift this problem to the Trump administration while giving Team Biden a flimsy but at least existent excuse that they took this issue seriously. Yet the political reek attenuated to the IC’s response to this issue remains pungent.

The problem for the IC is that the dam is now breaking. With Congress increasingly engaged, the evidence of Russia’s guilt will become increasingly difficult to hide. A very hard reckoning is coming for senior IC officials, such as CIA Deputy Director David Cohen, who have restricted CIA operations to catch Russian intelligence officers with Havana Syndrome devices and who have presided over a politicisation of analysis in order to keep this issue in the shadows.

The CIA’s motto is “The truth shall set you free.” Here? Not so much. Truth is coming, and it is going to bite senior IC leaders in uncomfortable ways.

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Tom Rogan is a national security writer at the Washington Examiner

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