In his New Year address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that a peace deal to end the war with Russia is “90% ready”. Never one to be outdone, his US counterpart Donald Trump put the figure “closer to 95%”.

Zelensky’s recent outline of the US-Ukraine 20-point plan does indicate that substantial common ground has been found. Yet, the final 10% looks unbridgeable, with much of it centered on the very question of common ground. Although Kyiv has made a major concession by accepting that its territory in Donetsk could become a demilitarized free economic zone, the Kremlin continues to demand a full Ukrainian withdrawal. Meanwhile, Russia has responded to Zelensky’s condition that it pull out of Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Kharkiv by instead expanding that northeastern “buffer zone”.

Even if Moscow could be persuaded on the merits of turning Donetsk into one big peaceful retail park, questions remain. The Kremlin has said it would want its own police and National Guard stationed there, whereas Zelensky has urged that international forces be deployed along the current contact line to prevent Russian infiltration. If the Ukrainian leader believes those troops could come from Nato countries, he will run up against Moscow’s demand that no Alliance soldiers be based in Ukraine, even if not representing the organization. Even still, the coalition of the willing persists in believing it will be “operating inside Ukraine”. If those foreign forces in Donetsk hailed from countries more to Moscow’s liking, there is still the problem of what mandate they would have to respond should Russia attack or stage false flag operations.

Zelensky has stressed that this zone must be approved by Ukrainian voters through a referendum. The associated plea for a ceasefire to enable this is partly practical and partly a ploy to extract a much-needed pause in fighting. Russia is refusing, setting the stage for it to reject any result as illegitimate, since it would be shaped by low turnout under fire. Zelensky would also face the dilemma of whether to include votes from occupied territories, likely falsified by Russia, or exclude those areas and so strengthen Russia’s claim over them. Besides, with polls showing that the Ukrainian public reject territorial concessions, it is unclear what would occur should they say no. Would Ukraine continue fighting indefinitely? Would America still provide vital intelligence to support this “forever war”? What could satisfy Ukraine’s public, if not this proposal, and at what stage would that be presented to them?

Then there is Zaporizhzhia. Currently under Russian control, Kyiv has suggested that the nuclear power plant form part of a demilitarized free economic zone. The US has proposed a three-way joint venture with Russia yet Ukraine favors Kyiv-Washington oversight, leaving America to decide where half the power would be distributed. Following Moscow’s strikes on its grid, Ukraine desperately needs energy, with one estimate contending that it would take up to seven years of rebuilding to compensate for Zaporizhzhia’s loss, while Russia wants it to make up for a power deficit in its south.

The Kremlin is determined to keep control, confident that a joint Moscow-Washington plan is tempting Trump, since he knows who holds the keys and is attracted by the lucrative prospect of cryptocurrency mining at the site. Russia’s narrow concession — that Ukraine receive electricity from the plant — is unlikely to sway Zelensky, who knows Moscow would hold Ukraine hostage via threats to cut off supplies.

If these final stages seem insurmountable, that is because the process is not truly meant to produce a deal. Moscow tried to derail talks through dubious claims that Kyiv targeted the Russian leader’s residence, while Vladimir Putin used his New Year address to assert his faith in Russia’s battlefield victory. Meanwhile, Zelensky has indicated that he does not expect the Kremlin to sign up to the deal, but he is playing along so that Washington will pressure Moscow rather than Kyiv, already calling for Russia’s obstruction to trigger tougher sanctions and increased arms deliveries to Ukraine. These negotiations are not as high-stakes as they appear, less about reaching an agreement than about keeping the spotlight squarely on Moscow.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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