A seismic political shift is happening in France, where Jordan Bardella is on track to become the next president of the Fifth Republic. According to pollster Odoxa, as reported by Reuters, the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) would beat anyone he faced in a run-off in the 2027 election. Despite Marine Le Pen being ruled ineligible by French courts earlier this year, the young heir to the once-toxic RN machine is so far ahead in the polls that he could split his vote in half and still make the run-off.

In the poll, Odoxa tested two presidential scenarios in which Bardella comes first with about 35%, well ahead of either centre-right former prime minister Edouard Philippe (17%) or Socialist MEP Raphaël Glucksmann (14.5%). This is nothing new: Bardella and Le Pen have long dominated first-round polls, buoyed by a splintered centre and steady gains throughout Emmanuel Macron’s shambolic second term. But what is new is that, for the first time, Bardella is predicted to beat all his potential rivals in the second round. Philippe would come closest with 47% of the vote, compared to Bardella’s 53%, but only last April the former was expected to beat the latter 54-46. Bardella would beat all the other candidates with a commanding result.

The 2027 election is 18 months away — an eternity in politics. The same length of time before the 2017 election, one would have been hard-pressed to find many people in Paris who believed a fresh-faced Macron would replace François Hollande as president. And since Macron has shattered the old Left-Right duopoly, the election line-ups are more fluid than ever.

Many on the Left are calling for a primary, but veteran Left-wing presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants to hear nothing of it. On the centre-right and within the ruins of Macronism, a dozen candidates are weighing their options. With such widespread fragmentation, the ticket for a run-off against Bardella might be as low as 15%, further whetting political appetites. Adding to the problem is France’s current parliamentary chaos, with no clear majority and the looming threat of Macron calling another snap parliamentary election. Presidential hopefuls tempted to make compromises to pass the budget might see their electoral fortunes sink.

Bardella himself might not even run, in the unlikely scenario that Le Pen manages to appeal against her ineligibility. Aged 30, he is not as seasoned an operator as his mentor, whose career has weathered many gruelling political struggles. And should she be allowed to run, Bardella would have to kill his political mother in a party where dissidents have usually ended up being crushed. But Le Pen herself hinted that the 2022 race would be her third and last attempt. In a way, Bardella, despite being her protégé, represents better than anyone the detoxified brand she worked to create for over a decade.

Old habits die hard in the electorate, however. In the 2024 snap election, when Le Pen stood at the gates of power, millions of French citizens coalesced once more in a front républicain to keep the RN out of power. Centrists such as Philippe hope to harness a similar anti-Le Pen coalition to win in 2027.

The problem is that might no longer be possible. Similarly to Macron in 2017, Bardella’s youth allows the electorate to project on him what they want to see — an asset only amplified by the strategic vacuity of the RN’s platform. Additionally, the party is no longer deemed as dangerous as it was previously, with voters considering Mélenchon’s “anti-colonial” Left a great threat to democracy. His party’s antisemitic dogwhistles, flirtations with conspiracy theories on Islamist terrorism in France, and rambunctious behaviour in parliament have made the RN look moderate in comparison. Mélenchon, however, might play spoiler for those hoping Le Pen can be kept at bay by sneaking himself into a run-off — only to be beaten by Bardella 74-26 according to Odoxa.

After 30 years of progressive political decrepitude, economic malaise and identity crisis — and with the Right, Left and centre having been given a shot at governing — the largely detoxified RN seemingly has an open boulevard to the Elysée palace. In other words, the election is Bardella’s to lose in the next 18 months.

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François Valentin is a political analyst and co-host of the Uncommon Decency podcast.

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