February 5, 2025 - 1:00pm

When Pyrrhus of Epirus triumphed at Asculum in 279 BC but lost much of his army in the process, he gave his name to a victory whose costs are nonetheless tantamount to defeat. While one should always be careful in predicting the outcomes of elections, there is a good chance that the next chancellor of Germany, in victory, will have also laid the groundwork for future defeats.

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz has this week adopted an “immediate programme” on immigration and the economy, with the intention of rendering support for Alternative for Germany (AfD) “as small as possible”. Yet he is making promises that are mutually exclusive. Under his leadership, Merz argues, there will be a fundamental course correction in the direction in which Germany is heading: returning to nuclear power, postponing the energy transition, cutting red tape, simplifying the tax code, rearming the Bundeswehr, overhauling the country’s crumbling infrastructure and, above all, solving the migration crisis.

So far, so good. But, unfortunately, no one in the CDU can answer the question of how their leader wants to do all of this. To enact such far-reaching reforms, the next government needs a stable majority in the Bundestag that no party can achieve on its own. The most recent polls have the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, at 30%. Meanwhile, the AfD sits at 21%, the Social Democrats (SPD) at 16%, and the Greens at 13%. Due to the German electoral system, even 45% could be enough to have a majority in parliament, which means that Merz has to negotiate a coalition either with the SPD or the SPD and the Greens.

Put differently, Merz has to form a government with the very people whose policies he has vowed to end. The only other option would be a minority government with changing coalition partners for different legislative projects, but even under such a scenario Merz has said that his party will “never cooperate” with the AfD, which would leave him once again with the Greens and the SPD.

There is simply no scenario that would allow the CDU to enact Right-wing policies when it excludes the only other Right-wing party in parliament. The libertarian Free Democrats are currently polling at 4%, which would translate into zero seats. The other remaining parties are from the Left, none of which exceeds 5% support. An honest observer would conclude that whatever Merz promises, he will be unable to keep it without the AfD’s help.

Considering that this possibility has been ruled out, the consequences are easy to predict: Merz will have to water down every single promise made before the election, leaving a significant portion of his former supporters disappointed. And where will they turn when the next elections take place? If the AfD is the only party that wants to govern in a Right-wing fashion, why not give that a try? It might currently seem far-fetched, but this is precisely what happened in Austria. In 2019, the conservative ÖVP gained over 37% of the vote, while the Right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ) came in third with 16%. Afterwards, the conservatives entered a coalition with the Austrian Greens, their approval rating plummeted, and they fell behind the Freedom Party in the next election. Now, the country is on the brink of having its first FPÖ chancellor.

Merz stands where the ÖVP stood in 2019, and if he continues as planned he will find himself in a similar losing position four years from now. One hopes he will enjoy his chancellorship, as it probably won’t last very long.


Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.

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