When Pyrrhus of Epirus triumphed at Asculum in 279 BC but lost much of his army in the process, he gave his name to a victory whose costs are nonetheless tantamount to defeat. While one should always be careful in predicting the outcomes of elections, there is a good chance that the next chancellor of Germany, in victory, will have also laid the groundwork for future defeats.
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz has this week adopted an “immediate programme” on immigration and the economy, with the intention of rendering support for Alternative for Germany (AfD) “as small as possible”. Yet he is making promises that are mutually exclusive. Under his leadership, Merz argues, there will be a fundamental course correction in the direction in which Germany is heading: returning to nuclear power, postponing the energy transition, cutting red tape, simplifying the tax code, rearming the Bundeswehr, overhauling the country’s crumbling infrastructure and, above all, solving the migration crisis.
So far, so good. But, unfortunately, no one in the CDU can answer the question of how their leader wants to do all of this. To enact such far-reaching reforms, the next government needs a stable majority in the Bundestag that no party can achieve on its own. The most recent polls have the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, at 30%. Meanwhile, the AfD sits at 21%, the Social Democrats (SPD) at 16%, and the Greens at 13%. Due to the German electoral system, even 45% could be enough to have a majority in parliament, which means that Merz has to negotiate a coalition either with the SPD or the SPD and the Greens.
Put differently, Merz has to form a government with the very people whose policies he has vowed to end. The only other option would be a minority government with changing coalition partners for different legislative projects, but even under such a scenario Merz has said that his party will “never cooperate” with the AfD, which would leave him once again with the Greens and the SPD.
There is simply no scenario that would allow the CDU to enact Right-wing policies when it excludes the only other Right-wing party in parliament. The libertarian Free Democrats are currently polling at 4%, which would translate into zero seats. The other remaining parties are from the Left, none of which exceeds 5% support. An honest observer would conclude that whatever Merz promises, he will be unable to keep it without the AfD’s help.
Considering that this possibility has been ruled out, the consequences are easy to predict: Merz will have to water down every single promise made before the election, leaving a significant portion of his former supporters disappointed. And where will they turn when the next elections take place? If the AfD is the only party that wants to govern in a Right-wing fashion, why not give that a try? It might currently seem far-fetched, but this is precisely what happened in Austria. In 2019, the conservative ÖVP gained over 37% of the vote, while the Right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ) came in third with 16%. Afterwards, the conservatives entered a coalition with the Austrian Greens, their approval rating plummeted, and they fell behind the Freedom Party in the next election. Now, the country is on the brink of having its first FPÖ chancellor.
Merz stands where the ÖVP stood in 2019, and if he continues as planned he will find himself in a similar losing position four years from now. One hopes he will enjoy his chancellorship, as it probably won’t last very long.
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SubscribeThe Republicans in France lost relevance, and saw their supporters move to the National Rally. The FDP lost relevance, and are seeing their supporters move to AfD. Britain’s Conservatives lost relevance, and are seeing their supporters move to Reform. If voters find their issues and concerns are not being addressed by mainstream parties, they will shift to previously marginal ones.
Well, I do agree that Merz is boxing himself in here, I think the more significant pyhrric victory last week was that notched up by the SPD and the Greens.
Just as Merz can’t enact the policies he wants while also maintaining the firewall against the AfD – the SPD and the Greens cannot maintain the firewall and continue with the current approach to illegal migration.
So, everybody is indulging in some fantasy/delusion/smoke and mirrors act or other in Germany – but at least Merz is suggesting things that are in line with what the majority of voters want. The SPD and the Greens aren’t. For them, the best thing would be to come to compromise with Merz that would take the wind right out of the AfD’s sails, calming voters and setting the scene for a coalition of the centrists for the next four years. But they just aren’t that bright – or they are too ideologically blinded. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter which.
I think it was Jan Fleischauer who wrote last week that it is impossible to govern against the majority for long. This is what the Greens and the SPD seem to think they can do and they are setting themselves up for an even greater disaster.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all pans out after February 23rd.
Yes, it was Fleischhauer: https://www.focus.de/politik/focus-kolumne-von-jan-fleischhauer-man-kann-nicht-die-ganze-zeit-stur-gegen-die-mehrheit-regieren_id_260682441.html
Good analysis. I want AfD in parliament, whereas another all-but-AfD coalition should be an umptenth occurrence of “latte/laptop classes piss on democracy”.
I always enjoy reading your comments. Thank you for providing clear and cogent insights
This reminds me of how the Democrats started frantically talking about the border, downplaying the DEI, Transgender nonsense, and talking about the economy right during election time. Not because they believed it, or had any intention of changing, they knew it was unpopular and needed to cover up the hole with a painting for the time being.
This strikes me as the same sort of nonsense, no intention of real change just a desperate attempt to curry votes with empty promises.
Someone should email a link to this article to every one of the LibDems still in the Conservative Party.
AfD will form part of the Government after the 2029 election. Merz doesn’t have the courage to bring them in this time but his successor will in 2029 or, as the author suggests might happen, the AfD will bring the CDU into government in 2029.
AFD can be stopped in one of two ways: Mertz gets his agenda through with the SPD, particularly on immigration- unlikely since SPD lacks pragmatism; or, Mertz allows Afd in the coalition in order to assimilate afd immigration programs and thereafter afd voters. The alternative is an outright win for afd in coming years. Time to be realistic.
Interesting way the numbers stack up. SPD+Greens have 27% between them and CDU/CSU are on 31%. So if the other parties are all below the 5% threshold then a minority CDU/CSU could win votes in the Bundestag so long as AfD abstains. So a bit like the situation in France, admittedly. But Merz is more likely to have some enthusiasm for at least some of those policies.
No way AfD shuts up while CDU/CSU goes for another round of open borders and islamic bootlicking.
That does not make any sense. In the scenario that I described, the AfD would only abstain if the government follows the AfD’s policies. If the government refuses, then it will be in the same situation in which Scholz found himself.