November 19, 2024 - 10:00am
After their catastrophic election defeat in July, you might expect to find the Tories fearful about the future. But that’s not the picture revealed by the latest ConservativeHome survey of party members.
An astonishing 38% of those canvassed expect a Conservative majority at the next election — a huge surge of optimism since the immediate aftermath of the party’s landslide defeat, when only 17% expected to win a majority next time. What’s more, this month’s survey shows that a further 18% of members foresee a Conservative-led coalition government and 11% a Conservative minority government. So just a few months after the Labour landslide, most Conservatives expect to be back in power before the end of the decade — which is bold.
Of course, this is a survey of party members — and one might expect a gung-ho attitude from activists. Perhaps the mood is more pessimistic among ordinary Conservative voters. But according to YouGov, this second and much larger group is even more confident of a swift recovery. 19% expect a large Conservative majority at the next election and 34% a small majority. A further 20% expect a hung parliament, but with the party still getting back into power.
It should be said that the YouGov data reveals a gulf between Tory voters and the electorate as a whole — who aren’t even half as convinced that the next election will result in a Conservative majority. It’s therefore reasonable to suppose that both Tory members and Tory voters are expressing what they hope will happen, not what they truly believe will happen.
For instance, just how plausible is the idea that the Conservatives might return at the head of a coalition government like they did in 2010? Just who would the coalition be with? Not the Lib Dems, that’s for sure. There’s always Nigel Farage and friends, but for there to be enough Tory and Reform MPs to command a majority, both parties would need to make major breakthroughs at the next election. The minimum requirement for this double whammy would be an agreement not to cancel each other out in target seats.
However, Kemi Badenoch doesn’t have a mandate to strike such a deal because she didn’t seek one in the leadership contest. Her best hope, then, is not to partner with Reform, but to re-absorb it by winning back ex-Tory voters. Unfortunately for her, the evidence that this is happening is elusive.
Polls from More in Common, Techne UK and Opinium do contain some good news for the Tories, but none of them show Reform fading away. What’s more, council by-election results — for instance, in Blackpool, Wyre and Telford — continue to demonstrate the ability of Reform to split the Right-of-centre vote, or to take seats from the Tories directly.
Despite Keir Starmer’s problems in power, the surge in Tory optimism is running way ahead of the party’s actual recovery. That puts Badenoch in a vulnerable position, because disappointing desperate hope is a dangerous thing.
Foolishly, her colleagues are talking up the prospect of defeating Labour in the space of a single parliament. That might be good for morale, but it brings forward the deadline by which she has to prove herself.
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
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SubscribePressure? or opportunity? This gives her the chance to say, “Yes, we can do it in one term, but only if we are ruthless in the changes we make to our party.”
There is another possibility… At the next convenient by-election, Reform field a new candidate – one B. Johnson! Boris declares he has always been for low-immigration, fracking, is anti-Woke and entirely agrees with Reform’s policy platform. He walks the election and becomes Reform’s sixth MP. Reform get a massive opinion poll boost and overtake the Tories. MP defections from the Tories to Reform begin in earnest. Farage allows Boris to become leader (while remaining elder statesman/friend-of-Trump himself). Boris engineers a reverse take-over of the Tories in an election pact. The Tory/Reform ticket wins the GE and Boris resumes his rightful place of Prime Minister 6 years after being pushed out. The BBC explodes!
Quite straightforward really.
Particularly liked the bit about the BBC exploding. I wish I’d had that dream instead of the one where life gets drearier and greyer – with a dreary/grey PM who has dreary/grey policies, which take away our countryside and make it dreary/grey and all hope disappears from our lives.
Yes it is very frustrating sitting out this shambles of a government for 4 or 5 years but it will get easier once we are past the halfway mark and will actually become fun as we approach the election. My tip is to tune into US politics more than British politics for the next couple of years. That’s where the action is. RealClearPolitics website is always my starting point for US current affairs.
Much more likely – Tories tack Right and Reform tacks even more Right. Despite considerable unhappiness with some elements of the 24-29 Lab Govt public move further away from an increasingly far Right grouping that can’t get beyond c25-30% support of turnout and Lab gets back in with reduced minority, but likely support from Libs and SNP to keep Far Right away from power if required. GB News goes bankrupt after paying the same Grifters too much money in preceding 5yrs. Farage goes off to his Gite in South of France.
Why is your party taxing working people, small businesses and farmers and not the £1.5 trillion in unearned property wealth that you have accumulated just since the start of the pandemic?
Internationally there is an anti-incumbency theme, whether the incumbent Right, Left or Centre. Therefore it’s not implausible UK flips again in 29 unless some key drivers for this change.
But the Tory/Reform split and ‘first past the post’ system make it a bigger challenge for the Right in the UK. A Badenoch/Farage rapprochement seems quite unlikely and neither ego suited to that.
A fair analysis. But how would you save us from Two-tier?
Watson is a wealthy boomer. The last thing he wants to do is save you from the party to which he owes his privileges.
Probably can’t for 4 years now, but to have a good chance then – have coherent policies that really do address inequality in the UK so folks can believe that whatever struggles the Country faces we are actually all treated fairly and in it together. Use that as a principle against all the big policy areas and won’t go far wrong.
The Tories are no more likely to tax the seven trillion (and growing) fund of unearned property wealth that is destroying Britain than your pathetic and creepy little gang.
Of course if you ask the membership of a party whether they are optimistic about the future they are going to say yes, because if they were not inherently optimistic about the future of the party they would not be members of it. And Hope always runs ahead of recovery – this is how stock markets, and indeed any market, including those for political parties, work.
Those obvious point aside, most of the proposed objections to the likelihood of a tory return don’t really amount to much. Badenoch could do a deal with reform at some later point if she feels like it. Just because she didn’t talk about it during her leadership campaign does not preclude it – she didn’t talk about leaving the ECHR or abolishing IHT or many other possible options, so what? This doesn’t mean these options are now closed to her.
Labours majority is broad, very shallow and won on an almost historically low turnout – 40% of those eligible didn’t vote; only 1 in 5 voted for labour. That is an easily dislodgeable position. Currently the nation thinks labour is doing a terrible job, and if they continue on their current trajectory of political idiocy then there is a possibility they may not even last one term. If citizens find themselves without either ample supplies of food and electricity as a direct result of government policy then that government will not be long for this world.
The Conservative Party membership have proven as treacherous to the progressive Right as the Labour membership electing Jeremy Corbyn. Jenrick can bide his time for a much better opportunity after 2029.
But will there still be life after 2029? Life but not as we know it Tyler.
At the risk of being boring……All the Tories have to do is commission a lot of polls and concoct a 10-point plan to do everything that the majority wants. For a change, ignore the minorities. If the latter all vote Labour, then maybe we have Labour forever. At least the electorate will have a reason for voting instead of the same ridiculous, wishy-washy plans emanating from every boring politician now.
A more likely outcome is a Labour/LibDem coalition as the LibDems demonstrated in 2010 they dont make many demands on their senior partner, and are flexible in junking previous policies.
I take upbeat optimism over nihilistic defeatism any day of the week
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I wonder if there is quite a lot of wishful thinking going on here. It is true the Tories have been awarded a get out of jail free card. This Government is so appalling, it has exceeded any expectation of how bad they would be. They have managed to alienate so many people there is every chance their vote share will fall considerably in 2029.
There is, of course, no real guarantee people will flock to the Tories. Even though they have a sparky and abrasive leader capable of ruffling feathers, it is possible Labour voters will stay at home, much as the Tory vote did in July.
I’m not voting Tory unless they do a deal with Reform. Don’t trust them. Period
Unless of course you take the view that Labour are proving so cataclysmically bad that any Tory leader would be odds on to win in 2029.
I appreciate Kemi’s anti-woke stance, but after watching her first two Prime Minister’s Questions, I don’t think she has what it takes. She doesn’t have a commanding public persona. She will look OK, but only because Starmer is wooden and boring.