What did we learn from today’s launch of the Conservative manifesto? Nominally, it’s about what Rishi Sunak would do if returned to office on 4 July. But with the Tories at least 20 points behind in the polls, and no sign of the gap closing, it isn’t really about that.

The public knows it. The journalists in the room knew it. But most importantly, the people drawing up the manifesto knew it. As a result, according to figures I’ve spoken to inside the Government, it has been a very cynical process: eye-catching initiatives designed to create dividing lines with Labour.

Sunak is lucky that there is so little between his party and the Opposition on many policy areas. Were Labour planning to restore index-linking of income tax thresholds, Sir Keir Starmer could shred the Prime Minister’s pretensions to be the heir to Nigel Lawson.

Even more dangerously, Rachel Reeves could point out that the “pension tax” he warns of is a tax the Conservatives intend to inflict on all non-pensioners every year, as so-called “fiscal drag” sees millions of workers handed rising income tax bills for the same real income.

Overall, however, the policy line taken in the manifesto is, if anything, a bit weird. It isn’t an honest programme for government — one journalist pointed out that it says nothing about the swingeing spending cuts Jeremy Hunt earmarked to create his “fiscal headroom” — but it isn’t a go-for-broke letter to Santa either.

Take the self-employed. Sunak made a big pitch to those voters, promising to abolish their National Insurance contributions. But according to IPSE, the freelancers’ union, the single biggest issue facing such workers is IR35 — a tax-avoidance measure which has seen huge numbers of contractors reclassified as employees for tax purposes. Suffice to say, those workers won’t benefit from any new measures targeted at the self-employed.

The housing offer is awful, with absolutely no mention of increasing building, and what is there mostly involves reheated versions of the past decade’s failed policies. Only index-linking the Right to Buy discount, which might revive Margaret Thatcher’s transformational policy, will make a difference.

Immigration? The Prime Minister offers an annual cap, which will be voted on by Parliament. It’s not a great policy approach at the best of times, but most importantly it means that it will be up to MPs whether or not Sunak was able to meet his headline pledge to halve net immigration. He’s also promising flights to Rwanda will take off in July — but if he believed that, we wouldn’t be having a general election now.

Fundamentally, this manifesto is hobbled by the fact that the Conservatives have a 14-year record to account for. Since 2010, net immigration has tripled, taxation is at historic highs, and the costs of essentials such as housing and childcare have spiralled.

Both Sunak and Hunt have had over a year to show the nation that they grasped the scale of the problem and were prepared to deliver radical remedies. Instead, we received Treasury-brained commitment to the status quo and airy talk about making difficult decisions in the “long term”. Not now, in other words.

There is simply no good reason for voters to believe any claims to radicalism now; nor is much of the record, education aside, especially saleable. The best frame the Prime Minister can really muster is “better the devil you know” — but with Labour leading on every policy issue, that isn’t going to work.

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Henry Hill is Deputy Editor of ConservativeHome.

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