“We wonder why our politicians make the same mistakes when they enter the halls of power. All they know is to divide and subtract. If I could have just one week in office, I would show them.” Thus fulminated Volodymyr Zelensky back in 2015. That rant against Ukraine’s endemic corruption was made in the first episode of sitcom Servant of the People, which ultimately helped propel him to the presidency.

Yet, 10 years later, those words may come back to haunt him. His chief of staff and right-hand man Andriy Yermak has now been ousted following an anti-corruption raid amid an escalating scandal about high-level graft in the energy sector. For Zelensky, the loss of Yermak is a deeply personal one: the two share a long history dating back to the President’s showbiz career and have worked together inseparably throughout this war.

Yet his mind will likely be on the more immediate political implications. Yermak had seemed untouchable, his downfall reminding Zelensky that politicians are invulnerable until suddenly they are not. He must now weigh how far to publicly distance himself and, if Yermak’s involvement in the corruption scheme is proven, will face difficult questions about how much he knew and when. With Yermak having been content to absorb criticism of the leadership, Zelensky will have no one to shield him from scrutiny over his own decisions.

Then there are the consequences for the President’s own leadership style. Such was Yermak’s closeness to the throne, rumors persist that he was in fact the power behind it. His unique and far-ranging role will be difficult to replace. Among his many talents was one for making enemies, who will be energized by his fall. Expect opponents to press for a unity government that would allow them to position themselves for future leadership bids and to shed wartime solidarity in favor of greater political maneuvering and public criticism as they look towards life after a peace deal.

That added weakness would be unwelcome at any time, yet is especially destabilizing for the Ukrainian leader right now. Donald Trump previously sought to exploit the political vulnerability engendered by the corruption investigation to pressure Ukraine’s government into a peace agreement tilted in Russia’s favor. As negotiations continue, the US President will find it difficult to pass up the opportunity to press a weakened Zelensky. High-profile accusations of corruption will additionally be seized upon enthusiastically by those on the American Right who have repeatedly invoked such concerns to challenge support for Kyiv.

That is not the only battle Ukraine’s President will face, as he must also contend with mounting challenges at home. Yermak’s resignation shines a spotlight on graft that, unfortunately for Zelensky, is in the politically sensitive energy sector. Ukraine faces a harsh winter, with over 600,000 lacking power in Kyiv this weekend. Moscow’s relentless attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure threaten to inflame public anger further, which will then be directed firmly towards the leadership. At the front, already demoralized troops are likely to doubt the purpose of their struggle as they read of top government figures lining their pockets at the same time.

Yermak’s claim to be heading to the front may mean the case against him being handled by the State Bureau of Investigations (DBR), which could potentially help him bury it. In reality, his influence is unlikely to be truly lost behind the scenes, as he continues to counsel Zelensky in private and potentially ushers in a proxy as his successor.

The key issue, however, is the public message. Zelensky once launched his career as both comedian and politician by rallying against misconduct. Yet, as the rot of corruption seeps into his own inner circle, only his enemies are laughing now.

---

Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

BethanyAElliott

---