Ultimately, Harris failed to disavow or defend her party’s unpopular positions on trans issues, substituting an uncomfortable silence for meaningful dialogue. But the issue isn’t going away. Republicans will continue to force the issue and voters will continue to care, no matter how strenuously Democratic strategists insist they shouldn’t.

After Trump’s win, the Democratic party’s back-room conflict over trans issues broke out into the open. Some Democrats clearly hope to moderate on trans issues. Representative Tom Suozzi of New York said he “d[id]n’t want to discriminate against anybody, but I don’t think biological boys should be playing in girls’ sports.” Massachusetts representative Seth Moulton criticised his party for “spend[ing] way too much time trying not to offend anyone” and said he didn’t want his two young daughters “getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete.” Moulton will likely face a primary challenge for daring to dissent.

Despite claims to the contrary, trans issues do not merely affect a tiny sliver of the population. Any strategist who says otherwise fundamentally misunderstands the problem. The Biden administration’s efforts to redefine sex under Title IX distort reality to the disadvantage of people formerly recognised as female. Another example was the White House’s decision to celebrate Rachel Levine as the “first 4-star female officer in the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps,” or Ketanji Brown Jackson’s refusal (“I am not a biologist”) to define the word woman during her Supreme Court nomination hearings. Despite Harris’ attempts to run and win on abortion, voters must be forgiven for doubting whether a party that can’t define women is in any position to defend women’s rights.

Moving forward, how should the Democratic party make sense of and manage voter resistance to the trans policy agenda? Do Democrats have a messaging problem or a policy problem? In the weeks since the election, prominent progressives like Last Week Tonight host John Oliver and former White House press secretary Jen Psaki have doubled down on the messaging wars, attempting to confuse and shame voters for caring too much about trans issues. In a heated rant, Oliver claimed that there are “vanishingly few trans girls competing in high schools anywhere,” that there is “no evidence” that it’s unsafe or unfair for boys to compete against girls, and — in any case — “it is very weird for you to be so focused on this subject!”

Unfortunately for Democrats, it doesn’t seem to be a messaging problem. The more the public learns about trans issues — like paediatric gender transition and “gender-inclusive” sports and spaces — the less supportive they become. People resent being manipulated and lied to, even if the speaker sincerely believes it’s all in service of a good cause. And the more sunlight trans issues attract, the less people are willing to believe the cause is noble and just.

It doesn’t matter how doggedly political operatives, activists, and talking heads try to frame that opposition as “anti-trans” when critics know the real issues are free speech, safe and fair competition, women’s rights, and the need to protect children and young people from an unfolding medical scandal, which is everybody’s business. Meanwhile, Democratic policymakers’ reality-defying declarations on trans issues undermine their credibility on every other issue that matters.

My advice for Democrats? Don’t push policies you are unwilling or unable to defend. Don’t change the subject to obfuscate the conflict. Don’t shame voters for caring about and contesting issues elites would prefer to dictate. And — if your attempts at persuasion persistently fail — consider whether you’ve gotten it all wrong.

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Eliza Mondegreen is a researcher and freelance writer.

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