February 12, 2026 - 6:30pm
Earlier this year, Donald Trump was already seeking to temper midterm expectations. During a 27 January speech in Iowa, Trump accurately noted, “Whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms”. Republicans, though, may be in better shape than he believes, thanks to voters’ abiding distaste for Democrats.
A Wednesday New York Times headline blared, “Republican Cash Edge Threatens to Swamp Democrats in the Midterms”. The Times’s analysis of federal disclosures found “that the three leading arms of the national Republican Party and the two super PACs aligned with House and Senate Republicans entered this year with more than double the cash of the equivalent Democratic groups.” The GOP’s combined total amounted to $320 million versus a meager $137.2 million for Democrats’ groups.
What’s even worse for Democrats is public opinion. The RealClearPolitics favorability average puts them more than five points behind Republicans, at 35.3 to 40.5, and shows Democrats leading Republicans on unfavorability by four points as well.
Both parties are deeply underwater, but the gap matters: Democrats sit at –22.4 on net favorability, compared with –13.2 for Republicans. That is why Donald Trump’s own declining favorability is a poor guide to midterm prospects. Republicans and their leader may be unpopular, but Democrats remain even less so.
Even the clearest bright spot for Democrats this cycle doubles as a warning sign. The party currently holds a five-point lead over Republicans in RCP’s generic congressional ballot average — a solid advantage heading into the spring, and one that has been steadily improving since autumn.
Yet that margin is still thinner than it was at the same point in 2018, the year Democrats rode a full-blown blue wave. In February of that cycle, their lead ranged from six to nearly 10 points. By Election Day, Democrats held a 7.3-point advantage on the generic ballot, which translated into a decisive swing from 2016, a clear popular vote win, and control of the House. Republicans lost 40 House seats that year, even as they picked up two in the Senate.
In this cycle, Democrats need to win a net total of four Senate seats to regain control — which, for what it’s worth, would seriously put a presidential impeachment on the table. They’ve recruited strong candidates in states like Maine and Nebraska (though Cornhusker Dan Osborn is technically running as an independent, he’s expected to caucus with Democrats). It’s fair to expect the party will have a good night on 3 November.
The signs, however, are pointing to more of a blue trickle than a blue wave. And the reason is that Democrats can’t seem to convince enough people they’re better than Trump’s GOP. According to Gallup, Republicans have been seen more favorably than Democrats since 2022. The parties were tied neck-and-neck when voters went to the polls and delivered a big win for Democrats eight years ago.
Democrats’ core problem isn’t money but branding. The party knows this, having spent more than a year reckoning with Trump’s 2024 comeback. It has also been the quiet secret of the GOP’s success throughout Trump’s ascent: Republicans have wagered that voters would judge the Left as even less appealing than a party led by an unpopular figure — and, so far, that bet has paid off.
This is the nut that Democrats have managed to crack only twice since 2015. First in 2018 and then during the pandemic in 2020. If Democrats remain the same and Republicans manage to find a leader more popular than Trump after his term ends, the party will be in even bigger trouble.
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