January 20, 2025 - 7:00am
With Russian President Vladimir Putin already putting up unnecessary obstacles to starting talks aimed at ending the Ukraine war, Kyiv is now showing that it too is in no hurry to head to the negotiating table. Ukrainian officials are currently making the case that peace discussions should be postponed until after their country has regained the tactical upper hand in the conflict. However, there is a problem in delaying negotiations until Kyiv enjoys superiority — namely, that it may simply never happen.
While Ukraine’s optimism and courage are both admirable, its battlefield prospects are somewhat less propitious. Moscow is steadily seizing territory and Kyiv’s issues with manpower are well-documented. Delaying risks galvanising Putin by offering him more Ukrainian towns and headline-grabbing victories, ensuring he is less likely to negotiate and in a stronger position once talks eventually do commence.
Kyiv is in danger of trading land at the front for less vital successes far behind, its proposed strategy being to use long-range missiles and a record number of domestically-produced drones to continue striking oil facilities, industrial plants and military production sites deep within Russia. According to Ukrainian officials, this will in time place so much pressure on the Russian economy that the Kremlin will have no choice but to negotiate in good faith.
But is that true? While such strikes undeniably hinder Russia’s economy and ability to wage war, it is doubtful as to whether they could inflict so much pain on Moscow as to make it limp desperately into the negotiating room for some much-needed respite. A Ukrainian intelligence source admits that Russia has been able to repair damaged oil facilities within a week and, with data on the scale of the damage classified, the Kremlin may well view such attacks as a manageable irritation rather than an existential crisis. Kyiv’s intelligence sources have also acknowledged that strikes are only one aspect of the strategy, the rest depending upon the West dishing out more missiles to Ukraine and more energy sanctions to Russia.
The US is unlikely to be sold on the idea. While the Russian economy is under stress and therefore vulnerable to tougher measures, Donald Trump may be reluctant to implement those for fear of pushing Moscow closer to Beijing, his overall goal being to provoke a split between the two powers. Ukrainian predictions of regaining battlefield momentum will also probably fall on deaf ears: in April, Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg was already arguing that Kyiv’s lost territory is likely to remain so, along with Ukraine’s chances of a military victory over Russia. With an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in place and the US President-elect boasting of his contribution, Trump can now turn his attention to resolving other world conflicts, all fodder for his Nobel Peace Prize nomination form.
This war has been marked by tremendous reversals of fortune for Ukraine. Kyiv stood strong, after the rest of the world predicted it would fall. Putin was left stunned after Ukrainian forces rolled into occupied territory. It is easy to believe in miracles when you have already pulled off a few. However, postponing negotiations until Ukraine has the upper hand will only ensure that Putin maintains it.
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Subscribe“For many of these voters, Trump — a representative of the old regime, albeit a reluctant one — is likely to be increasingly regarded as uncool at best and an unwitting tool of elite interests at worst.”
This is hitting the nail right on the head. For all that Trump did to move the political goalposts and show just how deep anti-elite, anti-global sentiments in middle America run, his actual policy was basically the border wall plus a lot of run of the mill Republican fare. Painting him as not smart/savvy enough to actually do what he promised is not actually a tough sell. DeSantis has to realize he could easily beat Trump at this point. He is the political darling of the populist movement and everyone knows it. He has the populist appeal but without Trump’s many and well known personal flaws. Populist Republicans will look for him to pick up the torch dropped by an election denying grievance nursing Trump. Establishment Republicans will try to corrupt him and quietly oppose the more populist parts of his agenda. Democrats will pull out all the stops to demonize him because they recognize the threat. He has the potential to dramatically shift American politics if he can capture the anti-elite vote without losing wide swaths of the electorate to offensive rhetoric. DeSantis is the only legitimate chance for another Reagan revolution type election victory that would propel the country out of the current polarized dynamic. I suspect the reason he has not announced a candidacy is because he, and other Republicans, want to extract some kind of promise from Trump not to run as a third party candidate when he inevitably loses the primary. Republicans don’t want to fire their golden bullet if Trump is going to get in the way.
Totally agree about Desantis. He is the future of populism. Trump has way way way too much baggage.
To be fair to Trump though, he did try to reduce govt regulations and had some success. He went hard at the EPA, one of the more opaque institutions that has throttled economic growth. He also did some good things in the Middle East.
Ron DeSantis is a plodder with little charisma. That didn’t hurt him in the last election, but it will hurt him if he goes national.
And he’s 44 years old with a net worth of about $350,000. There’s nothing wrong with that, and a low net worth didn’t stop Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. But he lacks the entrepreneurial flare that a Donald Trump has.
I know a lot of people don’t like people like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, but they know how to get things done. Especially Donald Trump. The man’s a genius at human relations. He knows how to push buttons to get things done. Ron DeSantis hasn’t shown any ability to do the same.
Totally agree about Desantis. He is the future of populism. Trump has way way way too much baggage.
To be fair to Trump though, he did try to reduce govt regulations and had some success. He went hard at the EPA, one of the more opaque institutions that has throttled economic growth. He also did some good things in the Middle East.
Ron DeSantis is a plodder with little charisma. That didn’t hurt him in the last election, but it will hurt him if he goes national.
And he’s 44 years old with a net worth of about $350,000. There’s nothing wrong with that, and a low net worth didn’t stop Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. But he lacks the entrepreneurial flare that a Donald Trump has.
I know a lot of people don’t like people like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, but they know how to get things done. Especially Donald Trump. The man’s a genius at human relations. He knows how to push buttons to get things done. Ron DeSantis hasn’t shown any ability to do the same.
“For many of these voters, Trump — a representative of the old regime, albeit a reluctant one — is likely to be increasingly regarded as uncool at best and an unwitting tool of elite interests at worst.”
This is hitting the nail right on the head. For all that Trump did to move the political goalposts and show just how deep anti-elite, anti-global sentiments in middle America run, his actual policy was basically the border wall plus a lot of run of the mill Republican fare. Painting him as not smart/savvy enough to actually do what he promised is not actually a tough sell. DeSantis has to realize he could easily beat Trump at this point. He is the political darling of the populist movement and everyone knows it. He has the populist appeal but without Trump’s many and well known personal flaws. Populist Republicans will look for him to pick up the torch dropped by an election denying grievance nursing Trump. Establishment Republicans will try to corrupt him and quietly oppose the more populist parts of his agenda. Democrats will pull out all the stops to demonize him because they recognize the threat. He has the potential to dramatically shift American politics if he can capture the anti-elite vote without losing wide swaths of the electorate to offensive rhetoric. DeSantis is the only legitimate chance for another Reagan revolution type election victory that would propel the country out of the current polarized dynamic. I suspect the reason he has not announced a candidacy is because he, and other Republicans, want to extract some kind of promise from Trump not to run as a third party candidate when he inevitably loses the primary. Republicans don’t want to fire their golden bullet if Trump is going to get in the way.
Yesterdays man, done now.
Yesterdays man, done now.
Unfortunately the party is over. Trump is not only distinctly unbased. He is cringe.
Unfortunately the party is over. Trump is not only distinctly unbased. He is cringe.
‘De Sanctimonious’ was limp. Might be losing his edge.
‘De Sanctimonious’ was limp. Might be losing his edge.
I see that Musk has reinstated Nick Fuentes as well as Trump and various other racists, neo nazis and general losers. No surprise there – these scum tend to run together…
I see that Musk has reinstated Nick Fuentes as well as Trump and various other racists, neo nazis and general losers. No surprise there – these scum tend to run together…
Trump remains the intellectual leader of the conservative movement – which is highly amusing for everyone else!
Diamond and Silk?!?!? It just gets bettter!
Who’s the intellectual leader of Dems. I won’t call them liberal and leftist is dubious. AOC maybe?
AOC is an intellectual giant compared to the fat clown hiding out at Mar a Lago!
That was helpful. How many people in this site do you think are Trump fanboys? 100%, 50%, 20%? Because I’m not seeing a bunch of them.
That was helpful. How many people in this site do you think are Trump fanboys? 100%, 50%, 20%? Because I’m not seeing a bunch of them.
Biden?
AOC is an intellectual giant compared to the fat clown hiding out at Mar a Lago!
Biden?
Who’s the intellectual leader of Dems. I won’t call them liberal and leftist is dubious. AOC maybe?
Trump remains the intellectual leader of the conservative movement – which is highly amusing for everyone else!
Diamond and Silk?!?!? It just gets bettter!
Are we sure that he actually does Twitter himself? The man is virtually illiterate, with a vocabulary of a 9 year old?
Are we sure that he actually does Twitter himself? The man is virtually illiterate, with a vocabulary of a 9 year old?