March 8, 2025 - 1:00pm
Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs has provoked a defiant reaction from Beijing’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson. “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war,” Lin Jian said in a press conference this week, “we’re ready to fight till the end.”
This aggressive stance resonates with the “wolf warrior diplomacy” strategy that emerged during Trump’s first administration, a calculated shift in diplomatic tone designed to match the US President’s volatility. But beneath the surface, China’s militant rhetoric is not matched by its actions. Indeed, Beijing’s domestic priorities suggest that the country is not preparing for imminent military conflict. Instead, it is focusing on economic growth, highlighting a 5% target for 2025. As Premier Li Qiang stated this week, China needs to be ready for “changes unseen in a century […] unfolding across the world at a faster pace”.
Li also announced that Beijing would raise 500 billion yuan to recapitalise state banks, aiming to offset tariff impacts this year. This focus on growth suggests that China might be prioritising stability over war, but at the same time will not shy away from the trade dispute.
It’s also possible that the US is not gearing up for war either. This week Elbrige Colby, the nominee for Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, stated that, while the fall of Taiwan would be “a disaster”, the island is not an “existential” interest for the US. On the other hand, Colby mentioned that war with China was not inevitable, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that Trump is confident Xi won’t invade the island during his presidency. Other signals, such as the potential common ground between America and China on issues including Ukraine, show there is a path for foreign policy that isn’t straightforwardly antagonistic..
During the Cold War, the Soviets coined the term “China’s final warning” to mock Beijing’s repeated but unenforced diplomatic threats, implying they lacked real consequences. Lin Jian’s recent statement could be seen as yet another iteration of these warnings. Yet in recent years China has been flexing its muscles, this year pledging a 7.2% increase in military spending. While war with the US does not seem to be China’s short-term goal, its very discussion is a concerning sign.
Beijing has been engaging in a trade war with Washington for almost eight years, meaning that it was more prepared for Trump’s return than America’s allies. However, mutual tariffs on all sectors mean both countries will likely suffer. A trade war is always a last-man-standing contest, in which extensive mutual harm is dealt out. The fact that Xi Jinping seems more open to introducing a stimulus shows an uncertainty in Beijing that they will be the ones left upright after an exchange of tariffs.
China is quite comfortable with a world in which strength is displayed openly, rather than concealed under nice words. Its diplomats are well aware that their country holds greater leverage over America than the likes of Mexico and Canada. Beijing is ready to meet strong words with even stronger ones, which may be the only approach to striking a deal with the Trump administration. However, taking the step from rhetoric to action is another matter entirely.
Miquel Vila is a political consultant specialising in international affairs. He is also the executive director of the Catalonia Global Institute.
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SubscribeBest article yet. Thank you.
America will not defend Taiwan. The Chinese know it, the Taiwanese know it. No invasion will be necessary, China will wait for the slow change.
Fun fact: the Mandarin for America is 美国 which translates as ‘beautiful country’.
If America won’t defend Taiwan, then it’s game over. America will be seen to be the paper tiger Mao always said it was.
Lose Taiwan, and you lose the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Everyone will be scrambling to accommodate themselves to the new world order. February 1942, here we come….
Untrue. Taiwan falling to China is an inevitable in the long run. The new world order is already here. It hardly signals the end of American power in the Pacific. The near hysteria over the fall of the first Island chain is way overstated. All the countries you mentioned besides Indonesia (historically neutral) are moving closer to the US. You also don’t mention Japan which is already doubling their defence spending and South Korea both of which could develop nuclear weapons at very short notice. China should be careful what it wishes for. Renunciation with Taiwan might not be the grand strategic win everyone seems to believe it would be.
‘All the countries you mentioned besides Indonesia (historically neutral) are moving closer to the US. ‘
Well, they were. But they sure as anything aren’t now.
Why would China seek to incorporate other countries? There are particular motives for Taiwan.
You can’t reason with people that possess a blind faith in the Global Security Expert Magisterium. They’ve already implanted a slippery slope narrative in their head and it’s too disorienting to break from it.
This is garbage.
Taiwan for China is a special case.
Sure so why would David expand the list of threatened countries to the entirety of East Asia?
All of those countries you mention, and the US and virtually all other countries in the world, agreed long ago that Taiwan is not an independent country but part of mainland China. Why would they object to China taking firmer control?
Taiwan and China is nothing like Ukraine and Russia.
Yes. The US has now lost the whole of SE Asia.
Japan ? I don’t know, but culturally they are more SE Asian than America. Hamburgers and skinny lattes ? .. I don’t think so
Yes, Mei Guo.
Xi can’t believe his luck that Trump opted to piss off his closest friends before picking a trade war with it. What a tactic. Want to get into a big Trade war? Well get your friends ready and supporting, not the reverse. No wonder Don J went bankrupt 4 times. He’s a chaotic clown driven primarily by personal animosity.
Who gave a stay of execution to TikTok? Let’s see what Trump does late April. And remember just over a year ago CCP used TikTok to encourage it’s users to message Congressmen and women. It’s algorithms continue to infect and harm many US youngsters. Trump care? Nah, not if he can find a Grifting angle for himself or his friends.
Just go read Tom Cotton’s book ‘Seven things you can’t say about China’. Cotton a Republican, Chair of Senate Intelligence Cmtte, whilst he contorts himself a bit to find ways to support Trump, he’s v clear on the 40yr malign influence and espionage of the CCP. Trump all performative show whilst he ponders the Condo deal overlooking the S China sea.
Do you really think that the entirety of US strategy is now defined by Donald Trump alone?
Well, don’t you ?
Largely for a period, v much yes. Once he needs money Congress will begin to exert much more influence. That’s coming. Watch next week
Just normal politics then? Why make such a big deal out of it?
Maintaining TDS must be such an energy-sapping way to be.
Yes. And it’s a feature, not a bug.
Our (speaking as a US citizen) constitution was specifically designed to vest foreign policy “strategy” into the executive. I’m scare quoting strategy because we can’t really have it – with precious few exceptions (treaties being one of them), every time an administration changes, we get new priorities and goals. (Ie strategy). Often times, these shifts are epic (2000, 2008, 2016, 2020 and now 2024 are great examples)
So, at best, the USA can have 8 years of consistency – but even the most stable presidents make changes within that time window.
This is why we aren’t the greatest and most stables allies – foreign policy is driven by electoral politics in a manner unlike most other countries.
Sounds like Senator Cotton is one of the few sane people left in Congess.
The Chinese are terrible at diplomacy. Their wolf warrior style and clumsy aggressive rhetoric may work wonders domestically but alarm and alienate countries all over the world.
Nice try.
You think Belt and Road was stupid ?
I find this article rather vague. Taiwan is a continuation of the japanese archipelago, no wonder from 1895 to 1945 it was japanese territory.The Pacific ocean is extremely important to USA, like the Atlantic. The power of USA lies in controlling both oceans. That is why they contemporarily fought on both fronts in WWII.
“there is a path for foreign policy that isn’t straightforwardly antagonistic.”
It’s called diplomacy. Something the west has forgotten how to do for the last few decades.
I wonder if the increase in military spending by China might be targeted, not at the US and Europe, but at the disputed border regions currently occupied by a now much weakened Russia.
If (more likely when) China reabsorbs Taiwan the US will not go to war with China, nor should they. It would contradict the One China policy, which is US and Western policy. I’d be equally happy if China left Taiwan along in its current limbo status but they won’t for ever.