February 24, 2025 - 5:30pm
The negotiations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to broker a peace deal in Ukraine are bringing Beijing and Washington closer than many would have expected. China last week indicated support for a “consensus” between the US and Russia on Ukraine, with Reuters reporting that Beijing hopes to play a role.
This marks a significant shift in US-China relations, where there has been little room for agreement for almost eight years. Questions remain, though, as to how far this signals a broader warming of relations between the two, or a merely circumstantial rapprochement.
The truth is that Trump is going to at least try détente — and there were signs of this even before November’s election. However, it’s worth noting that the US has also pledged to prevent Chinese nationals from buying American farmland, shile placing additional tariffs on Chinese goods — and those won’t be the last. On the other hand, President Xi Jinping, at a recent gathering of tech leaders including the formerly ostracised Jack Ma, signalled a more business-friendly approach. Xi wants to regain the confidence of foreign investors, and for that he will need international stability.
Market actors are beginning to notice these subtle changes. In an interview last week, Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Equity Strategist, commented that months of pessimism about Chinese stocks have given way to signs of a more optimistic outlook, in part thanks to a perceived reduction in diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Washington. Globalism as an ideal may be dead, but globalisation as a material reality persists.
Elsewhere, peace in Ukraine could also help ease tensions between China and the EU. China’s proximity to Moscow, and the fact that Russia has relied on Chinese exports to bypass the impact of Western sanctions, has naturally put a strain on relations between Beijing and Brussels. Since the beginning of the war, the EU has sanctioned 31 Chinese entities — 25 of those added just this month — for providing Russia with dual-use civilian technology that could be repurposed for military drones. An end to the Ukraine conflict would reduce the exposure of Chinese companies to more sanctions and tariffs. At the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, aiming to take advantage of potential rifts between the US and the EU, threw a bone to disgruntled European elites, stating that they should also have a place at the negotiation table for peace talks about Ukraine.
The downside of this for China is that a peace settlement in Ukraine and an increase of European capabilities to take care of their own security could free up US military and diplomatic resources for greater focus on the Indo-Pacific region. That is one of the main reasons for Trump’s administration to broker a quick agreement with Russia. However, Xi seems more worried about easing internal economic problems than about imminent war.
Any proclamations of friendly Sino-American relations must be taken with a serious pinch of salt. Earlier this month, the US State Department quietly removed its explicit opposition to Taiwan’s independence from a fact-check, angering Beijing. Does this mean a tougher stance on China, or is it a negotiating tactic suggesting that Taiwan’s status is open for discussion? Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth aims to cut military spending, and Trump has floated raising tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors while suggesting the country should fund its own security. This could either reaffirm US protection — at a price — or indicate a shift toward a more hands-off approach, potentially urging allies such as Japan to take on a greater role.
Going forward, Putin has invited Xi to the summit with Trump in Moscow, which could change the tone of Sino-American relations. Geopolitical agreement could lead to a softening of US tariffs, thereby helping Xi’s stagnant economy. Still, the path to avoiding conflict remains unclear as the core tensions persist.
Historical precedents and international realities should temper optimism, and any warming of Sino-American relations will be slow and prone to setbacks. The best short-term outcome we can expect is a pause in escalation, rather than true de-escalation.
Miquel Vila is a political consultant specialising in international affairs. He is also the executive director of the Catalonia Global Institute.
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SubscribeInteresting to think of the China angle to the Ukraine war. Ukraine, Russia, the US, the EU, the UK, NATO, China, etc. Lots of variables to consider all interrelated in complex ways.
A war like this one does affect the rest of the world. We in the US should be careful not to treat other countries as adversaries unless we are at war with them. We gain nothing by standing on ideology rather than pragmatism.
Speaking of China, I wonder how the sale of TikTok is going. Donald Trump put in place a 75-day stay. Half that time has gone, but nothing seems to be happening.
One things for sure, these are not the boring times of Joe Biden. TikTok may have stopped ticking, but there are plenty of other bombs on a short fuse that need to be defused. Exciting times.
Why just China? India, Indonesia, Brazil, UAE, Saudi Arabia- in fact most of the non Western world has long called for an end to the war. Higher food and fuel prices affect all.
Only Neo Cons and MIC fattened lobbies who don’t care for the hardships of everyday life; and whose slush money profits increase with war have called for its continuance.
“Only Neo Cons and MIC fattened lobbies who don’t care for the hardships of everyday life; and whose slush money profits increase with war have called for its continuance.”
Also dumb European leaders who, having dug themselves into a hole with ‘whatever it takes’ commitments to Zelensky now have no idea how to stop digging (let alone get themselves out of said hole).
Of course Trump and Xi want to sort out Ukraine asap. Trump wants the USA to make money from their surrender, and China want to ratchet down from opposition to occupying an independent sovereign nation (as indeed does Trump). Both of them want to be pals with Putin. Dictators together with similar aims – never mind the actual people, they are just disposable pawns to money and power for the old men.
The perspective from which an article is written is not only significant but also deeply misleading. This piece frames the U.S. as negotiating from a position of strength over China, when in reality, the opposite is true. China is supplying critical components for the very weapons the U.S. is sending to Ukraine while simultaneously providing weapon parts to Russia. In effect, China has assumed the role the U.S. once held—serving as a key supplier in a major conflict.
The U.S. does not need to end the war in Ukraine because it wants to; it must do so because it has no choice. The country is increasingly dependent on Chinese manufacturing, while China continues to support both sides of the conflict. As a result, the U.S. finds itself in the paradoxical position of fueling China’s economy while depleting its own resources for a war of questionable strategic value.
Adding insult to injury, the notion that China’s economy is ‘stagnant’ is laughable. The assumption that sanctions against select Chinese entities would cripple their economy is based on wishful thinking rather than reality. The evidence clearly tells a different story.
A nuanced understanding of global power dynamics is essential, especially when mainstream narratives fail to capture the shifting balance of influence.
Amazing how many people actually want war with China and/or Russia. You should all go talk to some combat veterans before you agitate for something you don’t really understand.
I would much rather see the three of them sitting, drinking tea and talking for as long as they want. Pretty soon they’ll start talking about women or golf or whatever, and forget about all this war nonsense.
I believe that Trump’s trying to shift the balance of power away from multipolarity to a dual consensus between China and the US – cutting Russia out of the picture entirely, raiding its resources and reducing it to a stub of its former imperial grandeur. Note that after demanding a ridiculous amount of Ukraine’s natural resources (and if anyone took that seriously, ditto Canada and Greenland being annexed to the US, I have some rocking horse faeces to show you), Russia leapt forward eagerly and offered their rare earth minerals to Trump? Putin has destroyed Russia: its manpower is significantly reduced (they’ve been deploying medics to the frontline, for heaven’s sake, still using that Tsar Alexander I habit of throwing wave after wave of whom they see as expendable bodies); its economy, off a war footing, in tatters; its people miserable and betrayed; its allies subdued or withdrawing; its goods sanctioned; its imperial dreams crushed. Whom can Russia turn to – the global south? Yes, of course, they orchestrate coups and military operations to shore up allegiance to Moscow; but China is heavily embedding itself around the world, its global supply chain without a single weak link. All these posturing speeches from Trump, Rubio, Musk et al seem like the opening gambit of a massive deal to be made – and China is on the ascent, despite economic turbulence. Just my opinion, naturally, but I think the Cold War is finally drawing to a close.
The likelihood is that China will absorb/invade Taiwan sometime in the next ten years and that the US will accept it as a fait sccomplt.