For decades, London has been defined by a Labour-dominated inner core, encircled by the so-called “blue doughnut” of suburban, Conservative-leaning outer boroughs. Historically, this state of affairs, while occasionally disturbed by Liberal Democrat incursions in the South West, has provided the guidelines for campaign strategy at each election cycle. Now, however, Nigel Farage believes that the combination of a toxified Conservative Party and a beleaguered Labour administration will provide an opportunity for Reform UK to make inroads in the capital.

According to reporting this week, Farage believes his party can win at least six London council seats in next year’s elections, targeting areas such as Bromley, Bexley, Havering, and Barking & Dagenham. These are boroughs with economic anxieties and traditional cultural values, which are at least amenable to a Right-populist movement.

These ambitions are hard to dismiss outright. Farage’s party has a track record of local election success, most crucially the symbolic seizure of Kent County Council in May. It’s these councils that are the primary indicator of what a Reform-run London might look like. The party’s detractors can then weaponize any failure to deliver on local election promises as proof that insurgents don’t always know what to do with power. In Kent, Reform campaigned on a platform to ease the burden on households, with a clear mandate to slash waste, cut bureaucracy, and operate an efficient, low-tax council. Yet, when faced with statutory funding obligations and a £60 million black hole, the transition from manifesto rhetoric to administrative reality has been tricky.

Of course, this checkered history won’t deter Farage in his belief that he can make significant gains in the capital. The MP for Clacton has highlighted policymaking failures which have enabled London boroughs to become lawless and unaffordable. In response, he’s proposing a zero-tolerance approach to policing based on the “broken windows” philosophy popularized by Rudy Giuliani in New York in the Nineties. Internal campaign documents also suggest that the party will aim to address poorly maintained local infrastructure and depleted essential services, as well as promising to tackle council waste.

This signals a shift in strategy, away from a style of campaigning which leans on Farage’s own popularity and charisma. Yet, it will require a concerted effort to address Reform’s recurring problem of poor candidate selection, where filling seats has taken precedence over finding suitable council members. To rapidly professionalize its operation for 2026, the party has relied heavily on recruiting defectors, particularly former Conservative councillors who bring existing local networks, data on voting intentions, and — crucially — experience in the mechanics of policy implementation.

From the party’s inception, Farage has made targeting London a fundamental element of Reform UK’s national strategy. But while ultimate victory may prove elusive, even a mild shift away from the historic main parties will send a message to rival politicians. Actual council victories are just one part of a plan which is also about giving Reform legitimacy and control in the heart of power. The party has built up support in some of London’s more deprived outer boroughs, and the fragmentation of council authority in the capital will only put more pressure on Labour. Don’t expect a teal takeover, but the old political order is certainly under threat.