December 5, 2024 - 1:25pm

Thanks to a new National Audit Office report on jail capacity, we now know that prison is awful — but there’s also not enough of it. This paradox sits at the heart of the present overcrowding crisis.

The report highlights that the current prison expansion plans are insufficient to meet future demand, projecting a shortage of 12,400 prison places by the end of 2027. The Government’s commitment to provide 20,000 new prison places is significantly delayed and over budget, with completion now expected to take a decade.

Let’s not forget that the absurdly optimistic forecasting, brought to you by the Ministry of Justice and His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service, has resulted in the emergency release of thousands of dangerous prisoners. These measures, themselves beset by mistakes, were started in the dying days of the last Conservative government and were a hospital pass to Keir Starmer’s incoming ministry in July. The political damage wrought by this will dissipate; the damage to voters who have been victims of crime will take much longer.

It is certainly true that the whole prison system has been neglected, and Conservative ministers have presided over criminally stupid austerity cuts that drove out experience on the prison service front line and brought in chaos. Promises to build new prisons and expand old ones were a convoluted mess, mired in spin and sophistry.

But ministers also rely on the one part of the prison service not light on manpower — the HQ boss class — to give them realistic information on how the jail population will develop and what needs to be done to keep pace with it. It now appears these projections were little more than guesswork. Allied to that, the “spades into ground” estimates on when new prisons could start expanding were so hopelessly optimistic that existing plans will now cost £4 billion more to deliver.

If we want a system that has the capacity to lock up and at least have a shot at changing people who pose a danger to society, we need accurate forecasts and competence. More than that, we need political courage. Removing foreign national offenders to their country of origin to serve their sentences could cut the prison population by up to 12%. Removing non-violent prisoners whose crimes relate to drug addiction and putting them in NHS secure detox could shave that figure further.

We have crudely repurposed male prisons to hold women whose offending is often driven by physical, sexual and psychological violence against them by males. We can punish many of them effectively elsewhere. Rather than release violent men into the community, they can be transferred to these places, which are already staffed to manage them. The Government has made much of its intervention to use executive authority to push through plans for a new “super-prison” in Lancashire, despite local objections. Yet two nearby state prisons are in a state of permanent crisis due to violence, drugs, disrepair and low staff morale. Increased capacity is no good without a well-managed staff to oversee it.

We can do other things that don’t involve continually releasing violent offenders piecemeal to a probation service equally on its knees. But to do this we need something that looks ever more unlikely: competent politicians operating in a drastically reformed administrative state.


Ian Acheson is a former prison governor and author of Screwed: Britain’s Prison Crisis and How To Escape it.

NotThatBigIan