Wes Streeting has never been shy about his leadership ambitions, and briefing this morning from “allies” suggests he may be gearing up for another tilt at Keir Starmer’s job. But the likelihood of the Health Secretary becoming the next occupant of No. 10 has always been low, even before the Mandelson earthquake hit Westminster.

Working in Streeting’s favor is the fact that he is the most organized potential challenger. MPs are reportedly lending staff to support his leadership campaign, which was rumored to take shape after the May local elections. The Health Secretary has consistently received praise for his effective communication skills and willingness to take the fight to Reform UK. But his permanent campaign mode is seen as contributing to the leadership drama gripping the Labour Party, his lack of loyalty grates, and his willingness to roam outside his brief has annoyed Cabinet colleagues.

Streeting’s position on the Right of the party also makes him a non-starter. Labour MPs want to hold on to their seats, and they see the same polling as the rest of us. They will be aware that Labour has lost more votes to parties on the Left — 31% to the Greens and Liberal Democrats — than to Reform (9%). Tactically, it would be suicidal to back a lifelong Blairite who has spent his time in Cabinet picking fights with junior doctors and advocating for more private-sector involvement in the NHS. That’s especially true when the Greens are led by Zack Polanski, a Left-wing eco-populist offering Corbynite economics to disaffected Left-wing voters.

And, of course, rivals will also be circulating recent polling by YouGov showing that a Labour Party led by Streeting would be even less popular than one led by Starmer. Evidently, the answer to the Labour Party’s current polling woes is not reheated Blairism.

Then there is the problem of his constituency: Streeting’s majority in Ilford North is just 528. As he noted in one of his chats with Peter Mandelson, he is “toast” at the next election; the seat is projected to go to Reform. Labour MPs will be wary of backing a candidate with such a slim majority, and Streeting’s leadership would be dogged with questions about which of the few remaining safe Labour seats he’ll be parachuted into.

While all of this was known before the Mandelson saga, Streeting’s connection to the New Labour grandee has undoubtedly damaged his chance at becoming PM. By dumping a year’s worth of WhatsApps to get ahead of the scandal, he only succeeded in highlighting his own lack of judgment in trusting the Prince of Darkness — the same flaw that cost Morgan McSweeney his job. His protests that the two were not close rings hollow against a cache of friendly sign-offs and digital kisses.

But the final hurdle is probably the most difficult to surmount: the vote of members and affiliates, who do not hold Streeting in high regard. Starmer would defeat Streeting 42% to 30%; Angela Rayner, on the other hand, would beat the Prime Minister by 48% to 37%. Despite her tax troubles, she is still most likely to succeed the Labour leader.

The idea that Streeting would lead the party has always been far-fetched. An openly ambitious Blairite, engaged in a constant briefing war with No. 10, is not the solution for a Labour Party in the process of being cannibalized by Polanski’s Greens.

When MPs are ready to remove Starmer, they will surely turn to a figure from the soft Left. With Andy Burnham banished back to the North, there is only one politician from that faction liked enough by MPs, party members, and the public. Rayner just needs to reach out and take the crown, ending Streeting’s leadership ambitions before they’ve even — officially — begun.

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David Jeffery is a lecturer in British Politics at the University of Liverpool.

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