But more recently, Arab Americans have gradually drifted back to the Right, rising from 22% support for Republican John McCain in 2008 to 35% for Trump in 2020. Donald Trump’s ban on travel from some Muslim-majority countries may have slowed the movement of this demographic toward the GOP, but nonetheless his support with this group recovered from 26% in 2016 to its current high of 45%.

The GOP’s realignment on foreign policy and Trump’s criticism of the war in Iraq likely played a role, as did the Democrats’ embrace of progressive stances on issues of gender and sexuality. For instance, Arab and Muslim parents played a significant role in protests against LGBT-focused school curriculum in 2022.

However, the 10-point jump over the past election cycle is an outlier, indicating that recent events in the Middle East — and Democrats’ support for Israel — intensified Arab Americans’ Rightward drift. While both Kamala Harris and Trump support Israel, Democrats have occupied the White House over the past year while the US has funded Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, landing both Harris and President Joe Biden directly in the crosshairs of pro-Palestine activists.

Faisal J. Abbas, editor-in-chief of Arab News, the outlet behind the newest poll, attributed the drift of the Arab American vote to the Gaza conflict. “What happens in the Middle East clearly doesn’t stay in the Middle East,” he said. “While most of us here in the Arab world might be indifferent, and don’t have a say anyway, as to which candidate ends up winning, clearly Arab voters in America feel strongly about the handling of the Gaza crisis since it erupted last Oct. 7.”

Amer Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, offered a window into the realignment earlier this year. He endorsed Trump in September, citing the conflict in the Middle East. “He assured [me] that his goal is to end the chaos in the Middle East and elsewhere. He doesn’t want wars,” Ghalib said. Hamtramck became the first Muslim majority city in the US in 2013, and Ghalib, who migrated there from Yemen, was the town’s first Muslim mayor. He previously made headlines for banning LGBT pride flags from city property.

The Uncommitted movement, a pro-Palestine group in Michigan that’s pressuring Harris to stop supporting Israel, recently came out against Trump and third party candidates but has yet to endorse Harris. Earlier this year, they encouraged voters to decline to vote for Biden in the primaries as a symbolic protest.

The latest polling marks a considerable escalation of the Rightward drift compared to the past few elections, and a downturn for Democrats which could have major implications in Michigan, a pivotal swing state. In the spring, the Arab American Institute found Trump winning among Arab Americans. James Zogby, president of the AAI, said Arab Americans are “still seething over the pain of Gaza […] and they’re not willing to put that away”.

---

is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

laureldugg

---