Ukraine faces decisive months ahead as key allies gear up for crunch elections. While early presidential campaigning in the US and a looming general election in Poland will grab the international headlines, a snap election in Slovakia on 30 September may prove every bit as consequential. 

With Robert Fico — Slovakia’s former prime minister and one of the West’s most outspoken critics of the Ukrainian war effort — poised to win the vote, a change of government in Bratislava could have a profound effect on EU policymaking. Fico has promised that if his party makes it into government “we will not send a single bullet to Ukraine,” proudly proclaiming that “I allow myself to have a different opinion to that of the United States” on the war.  

Fico has also claimed on the campaign trail that “war always comes from the West and peace from the East,” and that “what is happening today is unnecessary killing, it is the emptying of warehouses to force countries to buy more American weapons.” Such statements have resulted in him being blacklisted by Kyiv as a spreader of Russian propaganda.  

Yet the former prime minister spearheads a new brand of Left-wing, anti-American populism that has become a powerful force in Central Europe since the war began. Perceptions that “the Americans occupy us” — as one MP in Fico’s Smer party evocatively put it — are shared with a similar groundswell of anti-Western opinion in the neighbouring Czech Republic.  

Yet Smer has been handed a chance to gain power thanks to the chaos which has engulfed Slovakia’s pro-EU, pro-Western forces. Personal grievances coupled with serious policy errors tore apart a four-party coalition formed after elections in 2020, leaving Fico to capitalise on heightened mistrust in establishment politics. Smer is expected to become the nation’s largest party after this month’s election, with an anticipated 20% of the vote.  

Whatever the specific makeup of the new government, if Smer is the largest party it will likely pursue a foreign policy similar to that of Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary. A halt to until-now generous Slovak arms shipments to Ukraine is Fico’s central electoral pledge, while the arrival on the scene of another Orbán-style government prepared to obstruct EU aid efforts for Ukraine would create a serious headache. That is particularly the case as Brussels struggles to win support for both short and long-term war funding commitments. 

Victory for Fico would also amplify Orbán’s scepticism about the overall Western narrative on Ukraine — a scepticism which the Hungarian Prime Minister recently conveyed to Western conservatives during an interview with Tucker Carlson. Orbán portrayed Ukraine’s attempts to win back the territories taken by Russia as ultimately hopeless and claimed that Donald Trump’s promise to end the war quickly makes him “the man who can save the Western world”. 

Like Trump in America and Orbán in Europe, Fico is hated with a passion by establishment forces. But in Slovakia, the pro-Western establishment itself has become so mistrusted that power may soon pass to a man intent on shattering what’s left of European unity on Ukraine. 

After spending more than a year in the political wilderness, former president Joe Biden and his family are suddenly everywhere again. Jill Biden has been touring the country to promote her book and rehash many of the arguments surrounding Joe’s decision to end his re-election bid. Hunter Biden recently joined Substack and X, his early posts making clear his desire to avenge his father by targeting political and media figures who questioned Joe’s fitness for the presidency.

The former president himself is also stepping back into the spotlight. Last Friday, he spoke at a dinner hosted by the South Dakota Democratic Party, focusing on his grievances with Donald Trump.

All this likely has many Democrats, eager to turn the page from the Biden era, gritting their teeth. With momentum heading into the midterms, why is the former party leader, who left office with an abysmal approval rating, making his public return now? However, there’s an argument to be made that the Bidens’ attempted comeback couldn’t have come at a better time for the Democrats. The ex-president’s return to public life gives younger Democrats a common target for criticism of the establishment.

Though Democrats are poised to do well in the midterms, the party still has a steep hill to climb to win both the House and Senate. The gerrymandering wars have made the House increasingly Republican-friendly; in the Senate, Democrats are expected to be competitive in only two races in states where either Harris won or Trump won by less than 10 points. This wouldn’t be enough to win a majority.

To give the party the best chance of recapturing one or both chambers of Congress, Democrats will need to reach voters who have soured on Trump but remain skeptical of the party. Though many Democrats still view Biden fondly, much of America does not. Inflation, crime, and immigration all rose under his tenure. Not only did those issues help decide the 2024 election, but recent polling suggests Democrats have not regained voters’ trust. If Biden’s return reminds them of all this, it could halt the party’s momentum.

But this moment also offers an opportunity for Democratic candidates running in swing states and districts to demonstrate some independence from the party. Indeed, some have already begun to do this. In Texas, James Talarico blamed Biden’s administration for listening to “the Groups” that said enforcing border security was racist. Former administration officials running to unseat Republicans have also kept him at a distance.

It would be advantageous for more Democratic candidates to follow suit if Biden insists on making himself a presence in this year’s election. In fact, Harris’s refusal to explicitly break from Biden was ultimately a major factor in her loss. Now, the political cost to doing so is far lower — and it may be a prerequisite for some swing voters who want to know that Democrats have learned from Biden’s mistakes and are ready to turn the page.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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