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Abortion ballot failure seals Florida's Rightward drift

Trump won Florida, even with abortion on the ballot. Credit: Getty

November 6, 2024 - 3:00am

On Tuesday evening, Florida became the first state to reject a ballot measure expanding abortion access since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the latest sign of the state’s Rightward drift.

The measure, which would have made abortion legal in the state through at least the point of viability, generally determined to fall at around six months’ gestation, garnered 57% of the vote, falling short of the required 60% and virtually tying with Donald Trump’s level of support in the state.

In other direct votes on abortion, red states have so far uniformly voted in favour of legal abortion, including Ohio, Kansas and Kentucky. Florida’s measure required a higher threshold of support than these states, but its failure — and the success of Republicans up and down the state’s ballot — undermined the expectation that abortion would serve as a wedge issue to weaken Republicans.

Southeastern states had some of the strictest abortion laws allowed under Roe v. Wade prior to 2022, while Florida took a more lax approach, making the state a haven for late-term abortions. But in 2022, Florida passed a 15-week limit, followed by the current 6-week limit, with exceptions in place for rape, incest, domestic violence and other contingencies. With one of the strictest abortion laws in the US now on the books, enthusiasm for expanded abortion legality in the state is lower than might be expected, especially considering its long history as a purple state.

Florida voters also rejected a measure legalising recreational marijuana, bucking the trend of red states passing such measures in recent elections, and Donald Trump increased his margin of victory in the state compared to the previous two elections. Republican Sen. Rick Scott also increased his margin of victory, and the heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county swung for Trump.

The results show an intensification of a Rightward drift that began in 2020. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won his first gubernatorial election by only 0.4 percentage points in 2018, compared to his blowout 19.4-point win in 2022, months after Roe v. Wade was overturned. And this election year, pollsters are no longer treating Florida as a swing state.

Much of Florida’s political transformation can be attributed to the events of 2020, during which the state had some of the most lax Covid restrictions in the US. Florida received more new residents from within the US than any other state in 2020, many of them from Democratic strongholds like New York. But Americans from predominantly Democratic areas did not push the state to the Left when they moved to Florida en masse. Instead, it appears that they contributed to the Rightward shift, as the influx of new Florida residents coincided with the state having more registered Republicans than Democrats for the first time in its history.

DeSantis’s LGBT-related policies, including those restricting gay and trans-related curriculum in schools, were panned in the national press but, much like the abortion issue, have seemingly done little to weaken support for Republicans in Florida. The conservative drift has not been universal, and a ballot measure legalising recreational marijuana is polling at 60%, with even Trump supporting the measure. Yet the failure of contentious social issues, most notably abortion, to chip away at Republicans’ lead is evidence of a complete Republican victory in the state, with no realignment in sight.


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

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Carlos Danger
Carlos Danger
2 hours ago

Hmm. The abortion measure failed, but still got 57% of the vote. That says something, doesn’t it? Abortion rights are popular in the first trimester. Even Donald Trump, who voted against the measure, would have voted for it if the limit had been more like 12 weeks of pregnancy instead of 24.

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
25 minutes ago
Reply to  Carlos Danger

I must admit it does seem gerrymandered somewhat. Was the potential limit on abortion in the question set so late in order to worry the more moderate voters? Would it have cleared the 60% hurdle if the limit was set to the first trimester for instance, which seems to be the middle ground most Americans are happy with?

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
1 hour ago

Losing by 57-43 is now considered a victory for conservatives? This is your drift to the right? LOL!
If it wasn’t for voter suppression and the ludicrous electoral college perverting the will of the American people in Trump’s favour this presidential election wouldn’t even be close.

Brett H
Brett H
1 hour ago

The fact that you’re still here makes me question the integrity of Unherd, I’m pretty sure you’ve been flagged numerous times. But I guess every village needs its idiot.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
45 minutes ago
Reply to  Brett H

In the US idiom, “CS” stands for the poultry version of “BS”. Champagne Socialist, or “CS” as he is known to his many fans, shows the usefulness of the idiom quite well.

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
38 minutes ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

This wasn’t funny the first time you said it. Certainly isn’t the second time.
Be better.

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
39 minutes ago
Reply to  Brett H

Don’t be such a snowflake!