juillet 17, 2024 - 4:00pm
Assistons-nous à la fin de la domination technologique par la Californie — et la gauche ? Elon Musk a annoncé hier qu’il déménage les sièges sociaux de SpaceX et X de l’État doré vers le Texas. Presque au même moment, les investisseurs Marc Andreessen et Ben Horowitz ont annoncé sur leur podcast qu’ils soutiennent Donald Trump, citant les politiques trumpiennes sur les technologies de pointe comme étant bien plus alignées avec leurs aspirations pour l’avenir de l’Amérique.
Cela cristallise une tendance visible depuis un certain temps et qui a été approfondie en début d’année par le toujours perspicace N.S. Lyons. J’ai prédit en avril que cette ‘droite progressiste’ émergerait victorieuse parmi les diverses orientations qui luttent actuellement pour le contrôle du mouvement conservateur. Et voilà : les technologistes les plus avant-gardistes d’Amérique se regroupent derrière Trump et offrent des soutiens de poids et de nouvelles sources de financement qui, espèrent-ils, se traduiront par des relations plus amicales avec la Maison-Blanche passé novembre.
Musk, bien sûr, est la bête noire de l’administration Biden depuis un certain temps, ayant arraché un outil majeur de formation de consensus des mains progressives au nom de la ‘liberté d’expression’ et ayant été soumis, peut-être par coïncidence, à des procès de toutes parts. Lorsque Musk a annoncé le déménagement du siège de Tesla, il a déclaré que ‘la goutte d’eau finale’ était due aux nouvelles règles de l’État sur la manière et le moment où les écoles doivent divulguer les souhaits de genre des élèves aux parents, incluant une interdiction pour les écoles d’exiger la divulgation.
Et peut-être que c’était la goutte d’eau finale. Mais Musk a également mentionné ‘les nombreuses autres [lois] qui l’ont précédée, attaquant à la fois les familles et les entreprises’. Au moins une partie de ce à quoi il fait référence ici est la relation de plus en plus conflictuelle entre les démocrates de Biden et le secteur technologique, qui a inclus une série de politiques visant à réglementer et à contraindre des technologies de pointe telles que la cryptographie, l’IA et la biotechnologie.
Si les réseaux sociaux soutenaient autrefois largement une gauche libérale, avec les plus grandes entreprises devenant des acteurs politiques progressistes à part entière, ces nouveaux domaines d’innovation sont souvent farouchement opposés à de telles contraintes morales collectivistes. La cryptographie, par exemple, est fortement libertaire : le but est de se passer de l’État dans la création de monnaie. Quant à l’IA, pour fonctionner de manière utile, ses capacités de reconnaissance de motifs doivent refléter la réalité de manière précise. Ainsi, pour les innovateurs dans le domaine, les obligations de ‘biais de l’IA’ cherchant à limiter, par exemple, la capacité de l’IA à mettre en avant ou à exprimer des motifs politiquement incorrects ressemblent moins à un progrès dans la protection des personnes vulnérables qu’à des obstacles au progrès dans le développement technologique dans l’intérêt national.
Cette faction se trouve désormais fermement derrière Trump. Andreessen et Horowitz sont visiblement en assez bons termes pour dîner avec l’ancien président — et selon eux, seul l’homme orange promet de ‘défendre l’innovation’, en net contraste avec ‘l’assaut brutal’ de l’administration Biden sur l’industrie naissante de la cryptographie. Selon Andreessen, sous un gouvernement démocrate, la ‘voie par défaut’ pour l’IA serait un ‘règne de la terreur’ dans la réglementation, comparable à celui dont ils se plaignent dans la cryptographie, ce qui signifierait que l’industrie est ‘en profonde difficulté’.
Ils mettent cela en contraste favorable avec la proposition de Trump de ‘construire la plus grande économie de l’histoire’, promettant d’abroger les contraintes réglementaires des démocrates sur l’IA, d’éliminer ‘l’idéologie de gauche radicale’ et de promouvoir le développement d’une IA ‘enracinée dans la liberté d’expression et l’épanouissement humain’. À leurs yeux, l’IA sera transformative, y compris dans la guerre, et pourrait offrir ‘le plus grand boom technologique de tous les temps’ à condition qu’elle soit libre de se déployer.
Lorsque nous combinons ces sentiments avec la nomination du favori des titans de la technologie J.D. Vance en tant que vice-président républicain, la coalition d’élite de masse de Trump prend forme. Cela compte, car comme l’historien Peter Turchin le soutient : la ‘majorité silencieuse’ aura très peu d’effet à moins qu’un mouvement de masse ne bénéficie du soutien des élites. Cela est particulièrement vrai étant donné que les masses républicaines sont depuis un certain temps maintenant de plus en plus associées à un statut inférieur : Vance lui-même aurait décrit le parti en 2016 comme ‘le parti des personnes blanches à faibles revenus et faible niveau d’éducation’, qu’elles le veuillent ou non.
La question a donc été de savoir quels sous-ensembles de l’élite se détacheraient des républicains. Dans le domaine technologique, cela est désormais clair : alors que les alliés d’Obama dans l’industrie étaient des magnats des plateformes de réseaux sociaux, ceux de Trump sont des investisseurs en crypto, en IA et en biotechnologie désireux de propulser l’Amérique vers un nouvel âge d’or de l’innovation. Le temps nous dira dans quelle mesure leurs aspirations sont alignées sur celles du public américain plus large, mais une chose semble de plus en plus claire : ils ont l’oreille (bandée) d’un homme qui pourrait bien redevenir président.
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SubscribeIn the mid nineteenth century the Russians extorted a huge area of Siberia and Manchuria from Qing China.
The Chinese have not forgotten and want it back.
Putin’s attempts to bring China “on board” show signs of increasing desperation. President Xi is a much more skilled operator and his using of Russian aggression as a lodestone for further Chinese expansionism has the rest of the world watching with obvious interest. Both Putin and Xi know this.
Now is not the time, i feel, to be less than diplomatic with China. We’re all aware of its failings with human rights, and we’re doing well in the UK to have taken the necessary step of abandoning Chinese input into our 5G networks. The voices from politicians to rescind the invitation of China to the Queen’s funeral are, however, foolish and lacking in political savvy. Such an invitation isn’t an endorsement of the Chinese regime, but the absence of an invitation would be a snub that would reverberate around Beijing.
Biden’s Forcing Russia into China’s arms is showing major signs of increasing negative effects on global balance of power.
Next Biden’s Insane closing of SWIFT may well rush the loss of USA Global Reserve Currency status.
Biden and his equally corrupt mini-me, Boris, are about to bankrupt Eu and UK between the mad and self harm of the covid response, and then having to get into the war which was none of their business.
The Big guy gets his 10%, I wonder if Boris, the little guy, gets 2%?
Biden is the single most destructive force in USA in its history. Boris can claim the same for his – and Truss is saying how great Boris was at covid and this insane war! Truss is bad news. She has them readying the printing presses for Overtime……
You’re sounding very much like Soviet blather about their nation “overtaking and surpassing the West.” It was the basis of all Soviet propaganda.
Up until the year 1991…
There is another possibility, if Russia is humiliated in the Ukraine.
Russia is a vast country (the world’s biggest, about 70 times as large as the UK) with a sparse population and enormous untapped resources, especially in Siberia. These resources would be of great benefit to a country that is rapidly industrialising and has a very large population. Furthermore, much of Russia outside of Moscow is neglected and economically run down.
An economically-damaged, militarily-humiliated Russia might be vulnerable to Beijing’s ‘Belt and Road’ programme, or something like it (for diplomatic reasons China would not want to make it too obvious that it regarded Russia in the same light as central Asia). Although China would not (at this stage) want to meddle in European Russia, Siberia would be a good candidate for Chinese ‘development’.
Perhaps Xi is biding his time, until the outcome of the war in Ukraine is settled. If Russia wins, Putin will be Xi’s best friend and a joint China-Russia geopolitical axis will emerge. If Russia loses, it will be a liability and China will extend its tentacles northwards.
Beginning to feel like this is also a proxy war for China. Just as the West thought the war would be a way to weaken Russia, China sees the war as a way to weaken the West. While Russia is depleting is military capabilities and future influence, the West depletes its economic power and future influence.
‘The enemy of my enemy is my friend’
When Biden set out to crush Russia he just made the real enemy of the world, China, stronger.
Absolutely correct. Astonishing that most have missed this.
Absolutely wrong. Astonishing that some think this is the case,
Well yes, sort of. Putin’s expansionism made it imperative to stop him, whatever the implications re China.
You have to shoot the wolf closest to the sleigh.
Err, Russia is NOT “depleting” its military capabilities. But it is completely destroying Ukraine’s capabilities and its obsolete NATO arms. You’ll note how little HIMARS are being crowed about these days.
Where do you get that disinformation from? The UK Military of Defence, which continue its bizarre daily briefings about a foreign conflict, as if it’s 1982 and we are steaming to the Falklands.
As to “future influence? Are you kidding. It’s the US/UK/EU/NATO which is peeing that away.
“Err, Russia is NOT “depleting” its military capabilities. But it is completely destroying Ukraine’s capabilities and its obsolete NATO arms. You’ll note how little HIMARS are being crowed about these days.”
You have absolutely no evidence to support this.
It was this Ukrainian weakness that made tehm retreat to Kuynsk and Izyum.
They may well fall back east of teh Oskil River.
When Ukraine ignominiously retreats to Moscow, we will know that Putin has won.
If Russia is doing so well why are they having trouble recruiting troops and keeping their forces in the field intact. Winning armies suffer less desertions than losing armies.
How’s the weather in Moscow this time of year, David Jack Smith, or should I call you Sergei?
Autocrats and their regimes have no friends; they don’t understand the concept. For them it is not a question of ‘How to win friends and influence people’, but ‘How to buy allies and manipulate people’.
Putin has been reduced to the rank of “Prince of Moscow.” As in the 14th Century, he is now the vassal of the new ruler of Central Asia–China.
As we see, Prince Putin must regularly go to do obeisance to the Khan. If he is obedient, the Khan may even grant him the title of “Grand Prince.” Perhaps a new cap even?
But if Putin displeases the Khan.
The Khan will just choose a new Prince.
It will be interesting to see how many centuries it will take Russia to free itself from their new “Tatar Yoke.”
Russia is a ethno-nationalist country believing slavs to be the superior race on Earth. China believes Han chinese to be the crown achivement of human evolution, Both countries are practically ruled by nazis. Of course they can’t get along.
It’s win win win for the west. Increased nato border with Russia with Finland and Sweden, bottling up their navy too; stronger Turkey controlling the Black Sea and taking on Russia in Azerbaijan; destruction of a huge proportion of Russian military; and unification of almost all the former Soviet countries, with increased military spending. And a largely unified west to boot. And then China, cursing Putin for doing such a great job on achieving these wins for the west – and delaying its takeover of Taiwan for 10 years at least – and by then India will be our barrier against Chinese expansionism as it stamps its rapidly increasing GDP and authority on Asia.
This article is nonsense Western propaganda…. Although recent Russian humiliations have left Xi Jinping visibly uneasy
Why is it western propaganda? The tone of Chinas comments have changed as the war has taken its course, from no limits of friendship through to being uneasy about the conflict. Your objections seem more to be based on your predetermined opinion than what has actually been said
Correct. To be honest, most people don’t really give a genuine crap about the conflict, and most likely couldn’t point to Ukraine on map. Even those with their virtue-signalling yellow/blue flags in their twitter bios.
They know nothing about the US engineered coup in 2014. The ethnic Russians killed since then. Ukraine’s flouting of the Minsk accords. That Ukraine is a sink of corruption and anti-democratic actions. The Nazi problem. The US inspired provocations. The real reasons for the conflict. Why it’s called a Special Military Operation, and the constraints that puts on Russia. The fact that most of the ground fighting in the Donbass region comes NOT from the large Russian regular army, but local militias with Russian air/ground support. Basic stuff like that.
Even so, the ridiculous government-controlled western corporate media agit-prop is the most insidious I have ever seen.
Ukraine is far better at PR Offensives, than military offensives.
Putin has been retreating for the last six months to LURE UKRAINE INTO A TRAP.
The tens of thousands of dead Russians, the thousands of wrecked Russian vehicles, and destroyed aircraft were actually ingenious means of lulling Ukraine into a false sense of security.
And once Ukraine takes Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea THE TRAP WILL SPRING.
Wow so it’s local militias that have lost all those hundreds of tanks and guns, and 70,000 soldiers! There’ll be nobody left there to fight their war then.