Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine finally came to a halt on 1 January, some 1,042 days after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion. The end of gas deliveries through the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refused to countenance any possible extension, including a much-hyped gas swap between Russia and Azerbaijan.

What is most notable about the move is just how little it has impacted European gas prices. It was, of course, less than two years ago that Europe suffered an energy crisis triggered by collapsing Russian gas deliveries, the key driver of subsequent inflation. At the time, Putin wielded the energy weapon against the European Union by toggling off gas supplies via Nord Stream — before its destruction — and forcing a halt to deliveries through Ukraine’s other major pipeline. But the impact on gas prices from the latest cancellation has been comparatively muted.

The halt marks a major loss for Russia, with its gas giant Gazprom set to lose around $5 billion annually, nearly 5% of its 2024 federal revenues from oil and gas sales. Yet there are significant losers elsewhere in Europe, too. Hungary and Slovakia, in particular, risk losing substantial supplies from the 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas that flowed through Ukraine annually in the last two years. That the governments of these countries are those which have most vocally supported the Kremlin’s position on the energy dispute — and called for Kyiv to accept Russian terms to start peace talks — is therefore no surprise.

Hungary has already adjusted by shifting the majority of its Russian gas imports via the sole remaining pipeline route delivering Russian gas into Europe: the sub-sea BlueStream and TurkStream pipelines to Turkey and from there via the BalkanStream pipeline through Bulgaria and Serbia. But the capacity for additional deliveries is strictly limited, and BalkanStream’s capacity is just half that of the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline.

The other big loser is Austria, although the political establishment is quite happy for the gas to stop. It has tried to freeze out the Russian-friendly Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the country’s location as the centre of numerous European gas networks has given it the confidence to handle the loss.

In addition to the Turkey-Balkan route, however, Russian gas supplies to Europe continue via another route: liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries. In contrast to the collapse of Russia’s piped gas exports, these supplies have increased notably since the Ukraine war. Already in 2023, they accounted for 6% of European gas imports, one-and-a-half times the amount supplied via the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline.

While European leaders outside Bratislava and Budapest have celebrated the end of Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine, they have thus far been unwilling to take serious action to limit Russian LNG deliveries. In fact, it is the global nature of the LNG market that has enabled Europe to so rapidly shift away from Russian piped gas deliveries. Since 2022, Europe has added 58.5 bcm of LNG import capacity and is soon set to reach 70 bcm in added capacity, just over the 65 bcm that flowed through Ukraine in 2020. The United States and Qatar have been the key beneficiaries of these growing exports. And while they still are cumulatively below total supplies from Norway and the combined imports from other pipeline gas suppliers — Algeria and Azerbaijan in particular — there are no serious plans in place to increase those supplies.

As a result, Europe can celebrate being largely free of Russian threats to its gas market today. But it is at the whim of the global LNG market, in which price fluctuations in the Gulf, Asia or the Americas can reverberate across the Atlantic and the Pacific. Qatar has its own demands of Europe, and in late December made its strongest threat to date to curtail gas supplies if the EU does not roll back decarbonisation and workers’ rights regulations.

The incoming Donald Trump administration is also in a strong position to push for Europe to double down on LNG imports, boosting a key policy plank for the deliveries former energy secretary Rick Perry labelled “freedom gas” in 2019.  The idea provoked much mockery at the time, but no one is laughing now.