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September 17, 2024 - 1:20pm
After the country’s election 72 days ago left three political blocs with no outright majority, France remains without a government. New Prime Minister Michel Barnier was appointed by Emmanuel Macron to act as a bridge to the far-Right bloc. Choosing a Left-winger for the role would have meant the repeal of the President’s economic programme, so he was left to make overtures to the Rassemblement National (RN).
Barnier’s appointment is acceptable to Le Pen because there is a mutual respect between the pair, and because he is an immigration hawk. As a result, outgoing Macronist ministers have warned that the current trajectory of the government risks handing Le Pen the keys to the Élysée in 2027. Meanwhile, at the weekend Le Pen herself briefed RN colleagues that Barnier will not last a year. It might seem counterintuitive for her to warn of the collapse of a government for which she is the crutch, but from her perspective it is perfectly logical.
With Barnier’s appointment, Le Pen gets to smooth her path to power: if her policies are beginning to be implemented ahead of the next election, it will come as less of a shock when she takes office. In agreeing to a confidence and supply arrangement with Macron, she is now one step closer to governing and is demonstrating to the bond markets that she does not cause chaos for its own sake. In other words, for her this is the last stage of “de-demonisation”.
This strategy comes at a price, however. The French Left now has a strong attack line in the concept of Macro-Lepenisme, and can say that Le Pen saved Macron in his government’s dying moment. La France Insoumise (LFI) can point to this ramshackle coalition of centre-right and far-Right held together by the presence of the Eurocrat par excellence and argue: “if you are dissatisfied with this country’s governance then your only option now is us.”
So, it is not in Le Pen’s interest to preserve the government over the long term, but it is in her interest to extract whatever concessions are possible — and these are not insubstantial from a radicalised Macronism comprised largely of the old Sarkozy network — before collapsing the government whenever is most politically opportune for the RN.
Edouard Philippe recently announced his plan to run in 2027, in a bid to get ahead of the Macron coalition and rally the centrist bloc behind him. At an earlier secret meeting hosted by presidential advisor Thierry Solère, it was revealed by Libération, Philippe told Le Pen that he wanted to avoid making a moral critique of the RN and to ensure that French politics was defined by “project against project” with the Left excluded.
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SubscribeFollowing French politics reminds me of a Netflix series I started watching the other day. I found it hard to keep track of the plot because I liked absolutely none of the characters, and I wanted the entire cast to get murdered, not just the victim on page 2 of the script.
Well, let’s hope they are all murdered then
Le Pen is a matter of when not if.
Fingers crossed!
Le Pen – lentement!
As the French proverb goes: Le Pen is mightier than Le Sword.
Ok, you win the comments!
Hmmm, I’m not convinced that the path is as clear as that. I think Le Pen will still need some ‘events’ to occur in her favour to leech a few more percentage points of support away from the Republicans. The double rounds of voting on the presidency are a significant hurdle to clear.