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The Trump shooting conspiracy theories have already begun

Donald Trump onstage after last night's shooting in Pennsylvania. Credit: Getty

July 14, 2024 - 2:15pm

At a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, last night, a would-be assassin — later identified by the FBI as Thomas Matthew Crooks — fired several shots at former president Donald Trump, hitting him in the ear and killing another attendee. In a few short hours, the event has caused major political ripples, with Republicans quick to use the inevitable rally-round-the-flag effect to boost support for Trump ahead of this week’s Republican convention in Milwaukee. For their part, Democratic leadership from President Joe Biden down condemned the violence and toned down their criticism of Trump, though there is also private acknowledgment in the party that this will complicate their ability to make the case against the GOP’s presumptive nominee, who will undoubtedly be the beneficiary of public sympathy.

The history of failed assassination attempts on American presidents and presidential candidates would suggest as much. In 1981, the newly-elected Ronald Reagan suffered a far more serious injury at the hands of John Hinckley, who managed to lodge a bullet in the President’s chest which narrowly missed his heart. Reagan’s grace and good humour as doctors operated on him further endeared him to the public and created the hospitable political atmosphere that pushed the Democratic-controlled Congress to pass his tax cut.

Yet the tone and tenor of political exchange in the early Eighties was vastly different: appearing to be too partisan — much less directly attributing violence to one’s political adversaries — was then out of the question for leaders in both parties. Today, those guardrails insulating the political process have all but come off.

Some of Trump’s most vocal supporters, including Senator J.D. Vance and Representative Lauren Boebert, are not mincing their words in explicitly connecting the incident to the Democrats and to Biden personally. Meanwhile, Democratic-aligned voices on social media have taken to using the event to talk about pet causes such as gun control, or have expressed glee that Crooks appears to be both a registered Republican and a fan of a Right-coded online firearms lifestyle group known as “Demolition Ranch”.

More historically distant examples of failed attempts include Theodore Roosevelt, who after being struck by an assailant’s bullet during the 1912 campaign simply carried on with his speech in a gesture of defiance that impressed the public, not unlike Trump raising his fist in the instantly iconic photo taken moments after the attack. Andrew Jackson, another populist president who roused extreme passions, was saved from murder in 1835 by a malfunctioning pistol.

Once again, however, the changed atmosphere of politics in a hyperactive digital media environment makes Trump’s brush with martyrdom far more complicated in its broader effects than Roosevelt’s or Jackson’s might have been. In particular, the saturation in conspiratorial thinking since then — galvanised by the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963 — will almost certainly ensure that Americans of all persuasions will cling to speculative theories about what actually took place.

Already, social media is abuzz with allegations and insinuations of — depending on how one interprets it — either a botched deep-state inside job against Trump or an elaborate set-up to induce sympathy votes for the Republican candidate. Worse is the suggestion of a false-flag “Reichstag fire”-style operation to pave the way for Trumpian autocracy, conforming with recent chatter over Project 2025.

This all indicates that many Americans will not be content with the explanation that a lone gunman did it. For a population primed to think in terms of sinister plots and cabals, there can be no such thing as coincidences or one-off-events. What is certain is that the shots fired by Crooks will reverberate for years to come.


Michael Cuenco is a writer on policy and politics. He is Associate Editor at American Affairs.
1TrueCuencoism

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Steven Carr
Steven Carr
5 months ago

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/08/congress/defiant-biden-tells-donors-were-done-with-the-debate-00166834

8th June, 2024
‘“I have one job, and that’s to beat Donald Trump. I’m absolutely certain I’m the best person to be able to do that. So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye,” Biden said.’

John Murray
John Murray
5 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

Sarah Palin had a poster with bullseyes all over it before Gabbie Giffords got shot. They all do it. They’d all be smarter not to do it.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
5 months ago
Reply to  John Murray

You’re right about this. The bullseye thing has been way overblown, but Pallin was relentlessly condemned for doing it, and even investigated for it. Biden has said way worse things about Trump. I’m not even sure why the bullseye comment is a thing.

Warren Trees
Warren Trees
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

It’s only a thing if it’s used by someone with an R after there name. If someone with a D after their name uses it, it’s just good old fashioned campaign work.

Steven Carr
Steven Carr
5 months ago
Reply to  John Murray

No, she didn’t.

But to get a more objective evaluation than my own opinion, I asked Claude to identify the symbol the Palin Campaign used.

‘The image shows a stylized white circular symbol or logo on a blue background. This symbol appears to be the logo for NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

The NATO logo consists of a four-pointed star or compass rose inside a circle’

Not very accurate, but not a bulls-eye

I also asked ChatGPT to identify the symbol. It was much more accurate.

‘This type of symbol is commonly used in various applications, such as geographic information systems (GIS), military maps, or navigation tools, to mark a specific location or point of interest.’

Perhaps you are thinking of the 30 second ad in 2010 by Joe Manchin where he walks through a wood carrying a rifle, and then fires it at the end of the ad.

It’s on you tube Dead Aim – Joe Manchin for West Virginia TV Ad
It got him elected, so 5 years later he repeated the theme in another ad, also on You Tube

John Murray
John Murray
5 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

Oh, such BS. You embarrass yourself. She used the NATO logo to target districts in the USA? Really? Sure.

Steven Carr
Steven Carr
5 months ago
Reply to  John Murray

I said that was not accurate, and then gave the more accurate interpretation.
Can’t you read?
I see you are peddling the myth that if a political party says it has 20 seats that it is targeting, then it is promoting political violence.
What the hell was wrong with Sarah Palin producing a map of America and then putting a circle around the places she said were her target districts that she wants to win?
Nothing.

Unwoke S
Unwoke S
5 months ago
Reply to  John Murray

Can’t you read?

Steven Carr
Steven Carr
5 months ago
Reply to  John Murray

John Murray thinks this poster promotes political violence, with its talk of ‘behind enemy lines’, ‘targeting strategy’ and the bullseyes.
What a joke!
comment image

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
5 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

Not a good look for John. If even has a key. Ouch.

William Amos
William Amos
5 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

A thoughgoing and meaty example of the doctrine of ‘plausible deniability’ as President Truman’s people so elegantly and succinctly termed it when they sat down to plan the Pax Americana.
President Trujillo, Patrice Lumumba and general Schneider of Chile also discovered that the particular ‘bullseye’ Biden and his CIA people had in mind often ends up rather more than a figure of speech.
But still, it’s all very hard to prove anything. ‘What is Truth’ anyway – as the most excellent and punctilious Pilate, 5th governor of Judaea was heard to remark to a certain seditious fakir that once came before his court.
I believe Henry II may have pioneered in history the technique when at Christmas in 1170 he cried in the hearing of his retainers and the assembled press-pack of Plantagenet England –
“Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?”
Of course he wen’t on to disavow the murder of Beckett but, in the timeless words of Miss Keeler before the bench – he would say that wouldn’t he.

Dougie Undersub
Dougie Undersub
5 months ago
Reply to  William Amos

It wasn’t Christine Keeler who made that, now famous, statement. It was her fellow ingénue, Mandy Rice-Davies.

Mark Hardy
Mark Hardy
5 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

And who can blame *him* for thinking that that was a direct message

Steven Carr
Steven Carr
5 months ago

Some Democrats tried just a couple of months ago to pass a law banning Secret Service protection for Donald Trump.
The fact sheet explaining the bill specifically said it was designed to affect Donald Trump.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
5 months ago

No need for conspiracy theories. Responsibility clearly lies with the corporate media who have spent the past eight years telling us that the man is some sort of obscene combination of H1tler and Ted Bundy. Hopefully hysterics like Joy Reid, Rachel Maddie and the rest might be a little more restrained from now on.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
5 months ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

Less than two weeks ago, BBC presenter David Aaronovitch said this on Twitter; “If I was Biden I’d hurry up and have Trump murdered on the basis that he is a threat to America’s security.”

He hasn’t been fired. He hasn’t been suspended. Bear in mind, this is the same BBC that fired Dan Wooten for saying he wouldn’t shag some leftist journalist. This casual demonization is vile and filthy and has to stop. But it won’t stop until there is accountability.

Terry M
Terry M
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

The BBS has fallen from being a respectable source of news. Yes, BS.

Dougie Undersub
Dougie Undersub
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Dan Wootten was fired by GB News, not the BBC.

Steve Jolly
Steve Jolly
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Wow. I was not aware of this. Thank you for educating us all. Shame on the BBC for this. I expect that sort of idiocy from American media who are driven by profit seeking to make ridiculous inflammatory statements to get attention. I expect better from them, especially as a foreign news organization reporting on a foreign country. If a Fox News or CNN commentator said something like this about Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer, they’d be rightly raked over the coals for interfering in the political affairs of other countries. I assume this commentator was joking, but I agree that this has to stop. It’s not funny, and nobody is laughing.

Chipoko
Chipoko
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

It tells you something about the iron grip of the Woking Class elite in the UK on the media that Aaronovitch was not been fired by the BBC immediately he made his disgusting comment.
Anyone who thinks that the BBC is committed to free speech and non-partisan reporting is deluded. It is an immensely powerful propaganda organisation, hugely funded by public taxation, whose reach is global, not merely domestic. It is not a force for good.

Unwoke S
Unwoke S
5 months ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

…and Whoopi-Cushion Goldberg

Right-Wing Hippie
Right-Wing Hippie
5 months ago

What the hell is wrong with our government? I mean, they can’t even successfully execute their political opponents. Can’t they do anything right?

Mike Smith
Mike Smith
5 months ago

Things ain’t what they used to be. They did a much better job with JFK!

John Murray
John Murray
5 months ago

Responsibility for the shooting lies with the shooter in all such cases. People who do violence are not wind-up automatons, they made an evil decision for which they alone are responsible.
However, in a country the size of the United States, whenever overheated rhetoric using apocalyptic language and violent metaphors is used there is always the risk of some paranoid nut being influenced by it. Not that that ever seems to stop American politicians or media from doing it.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
5 months ago

We don’t know why the kid did it. He is clearly deranged. However, the Dems and their foot soldiers in the institutions – the regime media, academia, the culture industry, the NGOs – have spent eight years dehumanizing this guy as the next anti-Christ.

The purveyors of micro aggressions have been relentless in their attacks. The Dems entire election campaign is stopping this unholy threat to democracy. Yes, people on the right have been uncharitable as well. Trump himself can be the worst of the bunch – giving people stupid nicknames and so on.

But I have never heard anyone with institutional power refer to Biden as a threat to democracy, or compare him to a famous authoritarian who killed 6 million Jews. We don’t know why this kid did it, but the Dems and the regime media have been relentlessly inciting hatred ageist this guy.

It’s uncharitable to call people names, say they are stupid or left wing loonies, but it’s not the same as relentlessly referring to someone as the anti-Christ who will destroy democracy, even though no one can explain exactly how he will do it. This incites hatred and dehumanizes someone to the point where assassination is seen as patriot.

Less than two weeks ago, BBC presenter David Aaronovitch said this on Twitter; “If I was Biden I’d hurry up and have Trump murdered on the basis that he is a threat to America’s security.”

He hasn’t been fired. He hasn’t been suspended. Bear in mind, this is the same BBC that fired Dan Wooten for saying he wouldn’t shag some leftist journalist. This casual demonization is vile and filthy and has to stop. But it won’t stop until there is accountability.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

It’s interesting that you say nothing about what Trump says at his rallies. His speeches are loaded with violent references. In fact, he cheers when he hears about politicians doing violent things when journalists ask them questions. Then there was the infamous comment that there was a Second Amendment solution to the Hillary problem. He told his audiences to beat the hell out of protesters. As I said, his rallies are riddled with violence.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
5 months ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

I specifically said he says stupid things all the time. The false equivalency is unfair. Trump’s extreme comments are not the same as the Dems election strategy of portraying him as a threat to democracy and comparing him the German.

Jos Haynes
Jos Haynes
5 months ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Time out of number I have heard Democrats call for the “elimination” of Trump, from Pelosi downwards. They have incited this act.
As for the lone gunman theory, there is an elephant in the room: How come the secret service allowed someone to set up their rifle within easy shooting distance of Trump and – apparently – ignored all warnings from the some of the audience of his presence? Like most US assassinations and assassination attempts, there is more here than meets the eye.

Terry M
Terry M
5 months ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Apparently Unheard Reader has never been to a Trump rally, or even seen one on TV.

Martin M
Martin M
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

The “next anti-Christ”? who was the last one?

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
5 months ago
Reply to  Martin M

I can’t say for being censored. Initials are AH.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
5 months ago
Reply to  Martin M

Corbyn

James Kirk
James Kirk
5 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

It was Lawrence Fox, on GBNews and Dan Wooton supported him. Hand those upticks back. The BBC are hand in glove with the same Democrat mentality. How do we discredit them when you level false accusation?

Alexander van de Staan
Alexander van de Staan
5 months ago

Trump gonna fight ‘em off
A bicoastal Woke Army couldn’t hold him back
They’re gonna try to shoot it up
Takin’ their time right behind his back
And he’s talkin’ to the crowds all day
Because he can’t give up
Back and forth through the United States  
Wearing a MAGA hat
And the message comin’ from his mouth
Says, “Make America Great”
And he’s bleedin’, and he’s bleedin’, and he’s bleedin’
Right before the Lord

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
5 months ago

Why didn’t he make America great again when he was president ?

El Uro
El Uro
5 months ago

What is certain is that the shots fired by Crooks will reverberate for years to come.
Sorry, but I’m not sure. From a certain point satiety sets in

Ex Nihilo
Ex Nihilo
5 months ago

Reporting on how the fringe nutters are spinning conspiracy theories is junk journalism. You might as well interview inmates at an insane asylum for their take on it. Who cares? Here’s a news flash: the vast majority of normal people are quite aware that the lunatics on the extremes whom spin this rot are not to be taken seriously. So why do you waste our time covering them? Because you are too lazy to dig out a real story that would actually inform us. The crackpots are easy to find and quote. We don’t need your help to know what they are saying. So how about getting out of your all-day pajamas, getting off of social media, going out into the world, and finding us some news that isn’t just retweeted crap.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
5 months ago
Reply to  Ex Nihilo

Totally agree. There will be hundreds of nobody nutters cheering on YouTube and Tik Tok. Who cares? They aren’t worth the effort and should not be amplified. That’s not the problem. The regime media inciting this stuff is the problem.

Martin M
Martin M
5 months ago

Reagan’s grace and good humour as doctors operated on him further endeared him to the public.…” Difficult to imagine Trump exhibiting grace and good humour. It’s not his style.

Martin Smith
Martin Smith
5 months ago
Reply to  Martin M

Indeed. There’s also Regan’s response to a direct question about his advanced age, which was something like “I won’t make age an issue at this election. Walter Mondale’s youth and inexperience should not count against him.” Both Mondale and the moderator laughed as well as the audience. Imagine Biden having the presence of mind to respond with wit and grace.

Point of Information
Point of Information
5 months ago

The link to the Reagan article should be read by Americans of all (both?) sides. Now that’s how to look like a leader to the rest of the world.

Here it is again in case you missed it in the article:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/reagan-attempted-assassination-tax-cut-117840/

Can either Trump or Biden match that?

William Simonds
William Simonds
5 months ago

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but some things just beg for it. A twenty something nobody in daylight, with a rifle, walks through a crowd of people, climbs on the roof of a building previously scoped out and identified by the USSS as a security “weak point” which is in the range of vision of active roof top USSS anti-sniper snipers, with no intervening buildings to block their vision, is reported to police before any shooting begins but is not accosted, gets off not 1 shot, but 5, and then is shot in the head by the anti-sniper snipers ending the threat but making it impossible to ever know what his motive was.
I was going to say “you can’t make this stuff up” but I realized you don’t have to.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
5 months ago

Not to mention the perfect Hollywood-staged photo of Trump with his fist raised and the stars and stripes just above him against a clear blue sky. Right place, right time?

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
5 months ago

Given the multiple incredible security failures, this was either an inside job or the Secret Service is incompetent to a degree that is awe-inspiring. And given the corruption of the FBI and entire Justice Department, it is inconceivable that there will be an honest investigation.

8 years of intense politicization of the justice system, 60 years of lies on top of lies, and here we are.

James Kirk
James Kirk
5 months ago

The Secret Service snipers didn’t have to kill Crooks. At that range on a still day where an amateur only just missed, a mediocre sniper could have put a bullet in his shoulder. Now there’s nobody to question. Why did they wait for Crooks to open fire?
Whatever the motive Trump is now a martyr. If there was indeed a plot to kill Trump by the Democrats the suspicion remains because they can’t prove Crooks insane. This has backfired in a similar way to fake news levelled at Farage in UK which only served to harden resolve in his favour. Or Sunak was portrayed as such a lousy leader that Starmer, a far worse alternative in some eyes, succeeded.

Steve Jolly
Steve Jolly
5 months ago

And if the Kennedy assassination is any indicator, they’ll continue for decades and spawn numerous documentaries and inspire a couple of feature films.

Graff von Frankenheim
Graff von Frankenheim
5 months ago

Author must admit that the evident lack of protection by Trump’s Secret Service detail smacks of deliberate interference. The level of ineptitude on display is so uncommon that it simply cannot be explained away as a mistake or a fluke.