January 26, 2022 - 3:00pm
There has only been one President to have served two-non consecutive terms in America. That was Grover Cleveland over 100 years ago, but could Donald Trump become the second? A year ago, in the wake of the Capitol riot, that seemed very unlikely. For one thing, his permanent suspension by Twitter, Facebook and other platforms has denied him his perch on social media. And yet, in the course of 2021, it became clear that Trump was firmly established as the front runner for the Republican nomination in 2024.
This has been confirmed by the latest Harvard-Harris opinion poll. Here are key findings as tweeted out by Polling USA:
Presidential Polling:
Trump (R): 46%
Biden (D): 40%Trump (R): 49%
Harris (D): 39%DeSantis (R): 40%
Harris (D): 39%Harris Poll / January 20, 2022 / n=1815 / Online
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) January 25, 2022
In a hypothetical Biden-versus-Trump contest in 2024, Trump beats Biden by six points. That compares to the 2020 result in which Biden took 51.3% of the popular vote to Trump’s 46.9%.
Given his age, there’s a significant chance that President Biden won’t run for re-election. But if Vice President Kamala Harris runs instead, then the polling shows Trump winning by ten points — and there hasn’t been a victory that emphatic since Ronald Reagan trounced Walter Mondale in 1984.
Of course, a lot could happen between now and the actual election in almost three years time. It’s by no means certain that Trump will even run again. One theory — advanced by Philip Bump in the Washington Post — is that “Trump is losing to Trumpism”. The idea is that having remade the Republicans in his own image, Trump is no longer the only Trumpian candidate — the party faithful now have a choice of younger models.
One of the leading Trump-alternatives is Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida. He enjoys high net approval ratings, but when he’s paired against Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 Presidential contest he only wins by a single percentage point (see above).
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeWhen you line up all of the presidents in the western world today, they all have something in common – they are grey and totally lacking in character. Today the word ‘president’ is a synonym for ‘politician’ and there are plenty of politicians already in parliaments and legislative assemblies.
I have friends in the US and they voted for Trump because he was interesting – not grey, not one of the gang. I used to watch Al Jazeera news every night and look forward to an announcement from Trump. Today I just can’t look at Biden. He is grey, inept, a professional politician (someone who uses words but doesn’t say anything), doddery, clearly not up to spurring on the nation to better things. He is like an older version of Macron and totally useless for today’s complex world. Putin must be laughing himself to sleep.
I agree with you. When I heard he’d been voted in as President back in 2016, I was pleasantly surprised. I felt some fundamental shift had taken place among the electorate. I’d actually expected and dreaded Hilary Clinton winning. While Trump was perhaps not the smoothest of politicians, I’ve always seen him as some kind of ‘Hammer of the Gods’, a force for creative destruction against old and corrupt ways.
He stood on the ‘Drain the Swamp’ platform – and that I back 100%
NO one will ever drain the swamp as long as self interest is the driving force in politics and life
Isn’t it fascinating to remember how the mainstream media took you on an anti-Trump journey right from the beginning. I knew I didn’t like him, I knew the whole world didn’t like him, but I had no reason why I felt that way… I regret taking that “popular” position without thinking for myself and, with the Brexit shenanigans, I now despise MSM/BBC/SKY.
I remember being slightly amused at hearing he was running for president. I never really thought he had a serious chance, but I was also harboring a vague hope that he would.
Upon reading the media reaction to his election victory, I began to develop a sense that this was NOT supposed to happen. Trump’s election had messed up someone’s plans big time. The more the media went against Trump the more I began to like him. He exposed the real ‘fas**ists’ in government and, in doing so, shook them to their foundations. In return they began to weaponize ‘wokeness’ which I now as define as an ideological and political movement within which fas**ists accuse non-fas**sts of being fas**ists. Basically a totalitarian morality system that disguises itself as a civil rights movement.
Absolutely! Well, 2024 will be…interesting!
You must have seen the meeting between Biden and Putin. Biden sitting bolt upright, stammering and shuffling his cue cards (with giant font) and then Putin relaxing in his armchair totally at ease.
Career politicians are off putting in their own right. Flip flopping on issues doing the word dance – all the while smiling and waving. Senile ones are that much worse.
It felt like the media had presented Hillary Clinton as a fair accompli and the nation would just sleepwalk into voting as they were told.
And the number of times we were told the media had DESTROYED Trump! The most refreshing thing was that he didn’t care, didn’t feel the need to respond and as it turned out, neither did the electorate.
A friend in the USA said in 2016 he was voting for Trump – when asked why he likes him, he replied “No! I don’t like him at all! But this country no longer functions, he’s who we need to break things up, in Washington and elsewhere, so we can rebuild. I just hope he doesn’t start WW3 in the process”….
Personally, I think the history books will regard Trump as successful and Biden as a failure. When history is written, personalities no longer have their value – only results and progress.
Completely agree. I never liked Trump as a person, but certainly voted for him because I thought he could be a great President. Unfortunately, elections have become popularity contests vs. electing the best candidate.
Indeed. I’d much rather vote for a man everybody hates than for a party that hates me.
“You have enemies? Good. That means you’ve stood up for something, sometime in your life.”. ― (not) Winston Churchill
“Of course, a lot could happen between now and the actual election in almost three years time.”
Polls this far out are meaningless. The mainstream establishment are working feverishly to ensure Trump never runs again, even if that means criminal charges based on some of his business dealings.
Trump made fools of the establishment in 2016 and he challenged their sacred project of globalization. They won’t forget.
I think you are absolutely right about the meaninglessness of polling this far out, but I do feel that it is a perception of the national mood. Biden ran on the idea of there being “adults” back in the room, and what we have seen is anything but. From Afghanistan to the economy, oil dependence to Covid madness, it seems, for a lot of us at least, that the adults are nowhere near.
What kind of person would vote for Harris? I cannot even guess how a brain that weirdly wired thinks.
(one thing I noticed is how Social Media has used their algorithms to bury the lurid stories of her and using Willie Brown, to climb the greasy pole of the corrupt political ladder. Search for it and just the tamest, and justifying, articles appear – Hunter like, her story has been sanitized for the Democratic/Soros party’s purposes.)
What always got me about Harris was not that she is a shameless careerist but that she positions herself as an oppressed minority. She’s a Brahmin for fucks sake!
Putrid human being.
A lot of them are doing that lately, while blithely ignoring their own treatment of untouchables.
And the very cool story:
“Unbeknownst to many, Harris is the descendant of prominent Jamaican slave owners, according to her father.”
The same person who thinks that the next Supreme Court appointee should be a black woman. Or, as we would say it across the pond, the same person who thinks that the next Dr. Who should be a black woman.
I don’t think there’s a single homogeneous group of social media today. They are split across party lines like the news media. You’ve got your Twitter, Facebook, Google/Youtube, Instagram vs. Gettr, Parler, DuckDuckGo, Gab.
Ah, Willie Brown! Corruption at it’s finest. Only left because he was going blind. Too much self-pleasure? Perhaps if you derive pleasure from being corrupt.
The vile, disgusting, Harris–though “putrid” is also quite good–shout out to Max Price–is his acolyte.
Let’s Go Brandon!
Oh now this is funny.
mastodons raging at each other across the primordial swamp, as PG Wodehouse would put it….
Thankfully, Trump/Clinton isn’t yet a serious enough prospect to be included in these polls.
If that happens, I’m moving somewhere isolated with no internet for a while.
Haha, I’ve heard that one before!
Not sure what other options either party has at this point. My plan is to keep the internet access but stock up on popcorn.
I can’t help but think the social media ban has done Trump the world of good. Whether you agree with him or not (and I think he had many good policies mixed in with the bluster) the constant noise and tweeting nonsense was incredibly tiresome and too divisive for large numbers of the centrist bloc you need to win elections. Him being out of the way and only his more sane speeches making their way into the public square will probably help him no end
Excellent point. In fact, he only needed to say absolutely nothing for the last two years to get re-elected in a landslide……but then the plandemic happened.
I’m not so sure. I get your point–perhaps you are right–but I also like the idea, in theory, of Trump being a “shadow president” and slamming Sleepy Joe 24/7.
I go both ways on this, depending on the day. Hope you are right.
Let’s Go Brandon!
Having been an actual media mogul, Donald J. Trump completely understood the contemporary American media complex. He saw the fault-lines in contemporary American political culture, and spoke the truth about them. I voted for him twice, the second time quite willingly. But not again.
Too old. Too inappropriate. Too vilified, he’s Lucifer to the progressive left and unacceptable to much of the middle. At the moment, the talented Governor of Florida–to start–appears to be so young, Trumpian, and successful that DJT may find no room for a run at re-creating 2016. I certainly hope so.
I really, really hope that these polls are indicating an American electorate ready to free themselves from the liberal establishment, the suffocating lies and Goodthink, while seeking some version of conservative populism which does not include Trump.
Defend the borders, destroy wokeism, demand more of our Western military allies, push back on China, rethink many of our global trade deals, invest in the middle class.
But stop with the endless lying, the narcissism, the short attention span, the incompetence, the relentless assaut on our democratic norms and institutions.
It feels as if Lady Liberty is being poisoned drop by drop by the left, while the right holds a knife to her throat. Both are equally deadly. The knife if the more immediate threat.
A conservative populist who takes on a lot of the Trump platform, while recommitting to normal politics, would wipe the floor with the Democrats in 2024.
Sad that we keep looking back.
Canada thought that another Trudeau would be the answer. It wasn’t.
Perhaps we should dig up the bones of some old leader and glue them in the chair. Thatcher, Reagan, Yeltsin, Diefenbaker, any would do and we would have the same result.
Is there no ‘new blood’ available?
Donald Trump will beat Kamala Harris by more points in 2024
Donald Trump
I’m not going to stop it until I save Donald Trump so we could win back and Joe Biden did his damage Donald Trump is never backing down at all
He really can’t be the best the US can do on the right. I’d prefer Tucker Carlsson
Let’s Go Brandon!